BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It will change. Tonight's GFS will look different. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 1:23 AM, packbacker said: It's a wonder it ever snows here. Expand The late Jim McKay on ABC once said, "It's not amazing that there hasn't been more than 11 triple crown winners, it's amazing that there has been 11" (horse racing). Yeah, it is amazing it ever snows here considering everything that has to go right. La Nina ups the ante though...makes it even tougher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 1:33 AM, griteater said: The late Jim McKay on ABC once said, "It's not amazing that there hasn't been more than 11 triple crown winners, it's amazing that there has been 11" (horse racing). Yeah, it is amazing it ever snows here considering everything that has to go right. La Nina ups the ante though...makes it even tougher Expand That's a good one! Nina's suck but I don't know of weak Nina with wQBO that didn't have at least a few inches of snow for RDU. With this AK ridge placement it seems like we are getting that canonical Nina/wQBO response. Does CLT have any clunkers. Heck even the strong Nina's has snow (74/76/2000) for RDU. Why I am a little bullish we get something. Though I guess first time for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Midlands Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/30/2016 at 11:01 PM, ajr said: When you say it's harder to get a long lasting -NAO is this the general trend that you're referring to? http://www.pnas.org/content/98/23/12876.full Expand That is a great read! It definitely leads to warmer than average winters here. I don't think we've had many below average winters over the last decade except 09-10 and 10-11. Both strong -NAO winters. It's good that we don't depend on it all the time for snow. 13-14 is a great example. Above average temps overall but plenty of winter weather. I don't think anyone cares if it's above average as long as we get our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Midlands Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/30/2016 at 9:34 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: From the looks of the indices today the NAO looks to go negative by New Years Day and stay that way for the rest of the run. I admit it is not the best of patterns, but it does have more potential than just "pure luck" Expand Definitely have a shot with good timing. I see it trends negative but looks like only -1. Better than nothing for sure but not sure that'll be enough with the way the trough likes the west this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Midlands Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/30/2016 at 9:47 PM, Cold Rain said: Good post. And welcome. If the base of the SW trough would break off, sort of like the 0Z Euro was showing, that would help pump up heights in the western US. Big if. Expand Thanks! I look forward to tracking something with you guys. Hopefully sooner than later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 1:42 AM, Miserable Midlands said: That is a great read! It definitely leads to warmer than average winters here. I don't think we've had many below average winters over the last decade except 09-10 and 10-11. Both strong -NAO winters. It's good that we don't depend on it all the time for snow. 13-14 is a great example. Above average temps overall but plenty of winter weather. I don't think anyone cares if it's above average as long as we get our snow. Expand Very good read. Published in 2001? Considering a more universally accepted acknowledgement of AGW, I wonder now how much more of a positive feedback has been unleashed by increased cold fresh water running off of Greenland and keeping the North Atlantic current weak and suppressed. If I'm not mistaken don't we want warm surface waters near Greenland for -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 1:47 AM, Miserable Midlands said: Thanks! I look forward to tracking something with you guys. Hopefully sooner than later! Expand We are tracking right now. Whether we bag something is another matter. I think we are always tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 0z GFS has begun. Let's see what happens. If global models stick to the 12z runs, give credence to a apps runner as a likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Someone bring the gas to fire this bus back up. The fuel light is blinking on and has about 2 bars left before we get left stranded on the side of the road. AGAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Um 00z is um weird.. energy is completely different out west.. like completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Anybody want to provide a PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looking at the vort maps, looks like less interaction between northern and southern stream (good) and the 50/50 is further south with less amplification of the SER...looks good to me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 4:09 AM, CaryWx said: Anybody want to provide a PBPMuch colder at 114, more suppressed as well. Could be a good run.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 4:12 AM, Jon said: Much colder at 114, more suppressed as well. Could be a good run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Agreed, Jon! Cold press is pretty gnarly this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 ...or the storm will go *poof* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Wow. This is quite a change from 18z. Not sure where it's going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Night and day compared to 18z...what a trough in the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Of course when the cold air is abundant no storm is there or it's super suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I think the storm got sheared out...I see little to no moisture. Really cold. On my cell so it's hard to see exactly what happened flipping between the model runs, but this is ridiculously different than previous runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Wow...from an amped runner at 18z to a completely squashed cold-dominated no-storm at 0z oh, you silly GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 4:19 AM, Jonathan said: Wow...from an amped runner at 18z to a completely squashed cold-dominated no-storm at 0z oh, you silly GFS Expand GFS is a JOKE, That's wht I said everybody jumping ship way to quick for late next week. Still may be nothing, But we want have a good handle on it until Tuesday probably..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Main differences I see are the 50/50 low is a bit further south and the northern stream energy digs more into the central US and avoids interaction with the southern stream energy. The southern stream energy also stalls right along the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Cold is always, always, more important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 4:22 AM, snowlover91 said: Main differences I see are the 50/50 low is a bit further south and the northern stream energy digs more into the central US and avoids interaction with the southern stream energy. The southern stream energy also stalls right along the West Coast. Expand A known GFS bias!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 On 12/31/2016 at 4:23 AM, mackerel_sky said: A known GFS bias!? Expand That would be inaccuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Wave #2, you're up...let's see what this one does with cold air in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This is ukmet looking at 5h. Energy is so slow may be to late if it doesn't hurry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The high is in KY. I don't like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 We've got a storm in N TX running into a banana 1032HP...uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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