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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:17 PM, Wow said:

12z GFS coming in stronger with the SW low and thus further north again. Enjoy the ride!

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A couple of things it appears at 500mb.  1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail.  The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:22 PM, tnweathernut said:

A couple of things it appears at 500mb.  1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail.  The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north.

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No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:26 PM, Wow said:

No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

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I hope everyone tracking this storm sees and understands what your saying. It's real simple and you have done a awesome job explaining our outcome really depends on what happens with the ns energy from the polar jet. We need it to phase in with lake cutter lp coming t h rough Sunday into Monday after it establishes itself as our 50/50. 

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:44 PM, weatherfide said:

I can count on one hand how many times cold chasing moisture works out.

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It seems like a secondary wave sort of develops on the backend after the main overrunning precip. is over. This isn't your typical FROPA that originates from a Great Lakes low.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:26 PM, Wow said:

No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

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Thanks, I think I was trying to say something similar, but I am sure it was poorly worded (or maybe i am just wrong, wouldn't be the first time).  

It just looked to me like the northern stream piece closed off, which didn't let the northern jet swing through, and slowed it down creating the interaction with the southern stream.  I definitely agree it was a lot different at 500 than previous runs.

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On a side note, the indices look a little better today:

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (GREAT)

NAO - Looks to go and stay negative (GOOD)

PNA - Stays negative and even strongly negative (BAD)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

EPO - Stays negative but does head towards neutral in the LR (at least GOOD early)

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:50 PM, BristowWx said:

Para still suppressed.  We have some time.  It's not Tuesday.  See what GEFS says.  We lost the HP which is concerning.  But this isn't rather last chapter of this book.

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UKMET runs a close 2nd when it comes to models for me behind the Euro.Did very well on Matthew in October too.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:01 PM, MichaelJ said:

Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend"

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While the pattern is not really all that great for a big winter storm, it's still close enough for small variations to make a big difference.  Something like a shortwave not being sampled well or a model amping up one piece of energy vs. another can make huge differences at these leads.  My gut feeling is that we'll get some sort of Miller Bish look.  I doubt we see a big wound up storm heading toward the Lakes.  On the other hand, this nice suppressed overruning look that we search for every year that never pans out may be difficult to come by also.  Still plenty of options legitimately on the table at this point.  But my instinct tells me that more liquid is likely to fall than frozen for all but the upper portions of the SE.

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