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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:25 PM, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are  :lmao:

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

 

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Thanks Grit. Oh, yeah I forgot it only went to 144.  Boy we are desperate!

Yes, UKMET looks much better on the set up, looks like a bit better orientation on the blocking too.  Hopefully come Sunday UKMET/EURO will show us we're still in line for an event around the upstate. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:25 PM, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are  :lmao:

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

j91n9e.gif 

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Notice the low pressure there north of NY State...we want to see that low wind up strong there, with northerly flow building behind it...Euro was doing this in some runs, but I think it's backed off of that a bit.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:25 PM, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are  :lmao:

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

j91n9e.gif 

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Yeah, the biggest difference I see is, UKMET has better cold angle for us and energy is slower!?

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:31 PM, griteater said:

Notice the low pressure there north of NY State...we want to see that low wind up strong there, with northerly flow building behind it...Euro was doing this in some runs, but I think it's backed off of that a bit.

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UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:39 PM, Wow said:

UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

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Yep. Well be at the start line Sunday into Monday. The 50/50 low might end up being the biggest piece to this puzzle when we look back 10 days from now. Gives us good  confuence in the NE and gets rid of the SER issues that gfs keeps kicking out.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:39 PM, Wow said:

UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

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Completely agree with everything here.  Getting energy from the northern stream and into the E Canada low is probably the single most important aspect to this working

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 5:51 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, feels like we've been looking at day 9-11 threats for the last 5 days or so, but this thing will be starting up in like 5-7 days or so, in TX! 

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Agree! 12z shows N TX will receive wintry weather for almost 24 hrs starting late Wednesday, with another wave of snow coming in Friday?? Honestly I wouldn't believe that giving it's still 6-7 days out. That would be a historical even here, if it happens.

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ajr

ajr

Posted
Posted

For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2016 at 6:02 PM, ajr said:

For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? 

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The OP runs have the most resolution of any model run. 

 

Control runs are coarser resolution operational runs. Typically, in an ensemble suite, there's about 40 different members. 

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