AirNelson39 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Man I really feel for South Charlotte up to Raleigh and points south and east, those folks be like…It'll miss to the south they said,We may get some light snow they said,Temps won't be an issue they said,No way it trends that far NW they said,You're going to jackpot they said,The NAM is just being the NAM they said,JB is an idiot they said,You'll only lose a little bit to rain they said,The sleet will changeover really quick they said,Just wait they said,We told you it would trend NW they said,Just stop modeling watching they said,We live in the SE what did you expect they said. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Man I really feel for South Charlotte up to Raleigh and points south and east, those folks be like… It'll miss to the south they said, We may get some light snow they said, Temps won't be an issue they said, No way it trends that far NW they said, You're going to jackpot they said, The NAM is just being the NAM they said, JB is an idiot they said, You'll only lose a little bit to rain they said, The sleet will changeover really quick they said, Just wait they said, We told you it would trend NW they said, Just stop modeling watching they said, We live in the SE what did you expect they said. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk QTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Maybe the hardcore mets are right about the problems posting snowmaps causes. This is the Euro/EPS from this morning. For Raleigh, unless we have a favorable Atlantic (50/50 and -NAO) and a 1040+hp located over the lakes extending east to Maine we will not snow, it's just that simple. Odds are winter is over, Nina background is still strong and odds favor a torch Feb. Hopefully next winter we can be in a weak Nino with a neutral QBO so we have a chance at HLB. I cancelled WB and SV...it's dumb paying money to track snow storms for GSO and the MA. This isn't enjoyable anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'm calling bullsqueeze on the old axiom, "You get what you get and you don't pitch a fit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Maybe the hardcore mets are right about the problems posting snowmaps causes. This is the Euro/EPS from this morning. For Raleigh, unless we have a favorable Atlantic (50/50 and -NAO) and a 1040+hp located over the lakes extending east to Maine we will not snow, it's just that simple. Odds are winter is over, Nina background is still strong and odds favor a torch Feb. Hopefully next winter we can be in a weak Nino with a neutral QBO so we have a chance at HLB. I cancelled WB and SV...it's dumb paying money to track snow storms for GSO and the MA. This isn't enjoyable anymore. I think you might be going a tad overboard there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I know for people in Ga, SC, Chsrlotte and Raleigh this was a huge bust and I am sorry for you it was. One thing to learn from this is that Climo is very important when looking at model forecasts which do not take much of that into consideration. The favored areas may start out looking like they will not do well while other areas seem to be in the "bullseye" from 10, 5 or even 1 day away but the usual progression of things with the N/W trend, warm noses, and qpf totals will not be as predicted/expected. The rules are not going to change just because we want them to or some model tells us they will, "just this once". The NAM is awful over 48 hours but I would not bet against it under that time frame no matter what the Global models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I think you might be going a tad overboard there. This is a venting thread...supposed to be melo dramatic :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is a venting thread...supposed to be melo dramatic :-) Will a Pack win in the Nose Dome make you feel better? Because I'm feeling there is at least a chance if they can play like they did Wednesday night (I'm trying to forget about what happened down in Miami haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is a venting thread...supposed to be melo dramatic :-) In that case I'm with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Will a Pack win in the Nose Dome make you feel better? Because I'm feeling there is at least a chance if they can play like they did Wednesday night (I'm trying to forget about what happened down in Miami haha) They played really good againt Va Tech the other day. If they play like that they have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Funny the Pack being brought up as I was just thinking about chasing models is kind of like getting hyped for the Pack. Don't get me wrong, I bleed Red -- Pack '94! -- but years of... well, what we had... beat me down. I don't get hyped for the games like I did when I was younger. I'd anticipate games for weeks, follow injuries, match ups, if anyone had coughed or ate a bad breakfast. But most of the time I ended up pissed off and/or disappointed come game day. In the decades since I've mellowed. I watch the games if I can, but I don't hype them. In fact, I had forgotten today was the trip to the Dumb Dome. There was a brief flicker of hope just after the Julius Hodge days (honestly probably my favorite player in the history of NCSU basketball -- dude could've left early but stayed four years and got it done, but that's another topic) and we had C.J. Leslie and were ranked #6 (SIX!) in the nation. Uh, yeah... So back to being beat down. Chasing the models is the same way. Years of disappointment after that glorious foot snowfall in GSO (where I went to highschool) in 1987. Eventually got numb to it. And, really, in those days chasing models was pretty hard. Settled down in RDU after school and Jan 2000 -- 20". I didn't follow that storm at all beforehand. Total surprise (well, to be fair, for EVERYONE!) and it was really cool. 2002 -- 16" or so. So I got excited all over again chasing models (easy now, all consuming if you let it!). Disappointment after disappointment. So while I enjoy watching the snow, of course, chasing models is like getting hyped for a great Pack season -- it has a high chance of causing pain. Sorry for the rant, or the perspective, or whatever -- but this is the Sanitarium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 My on-going joke is this place seems like Pack Pride sometimes with the self-defeatism. I fully get it both for winter weather lovers in CLT and RDU and for Pack fans. But I tend to lean on the optimistic side of the scale and can usually make lemonade out of lemons. And if it's really bad I just take to drinking, which I've had to do too many times when it comes to NC State sports as well as winter weather after living in Raleigh and Charlotte for the past 12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 BigWeather - right there with you. Pack will always be a mediocre in Bball and Fball. I used to watch every game religiously but rarely watch now. I did happen to catch the game the other day which was the first of the season. Being a fan of the pack is like being of fan of snow in Raleigh, more times then not you will be disappointed. This bust today was as bad as the Clemson loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 at least i saw snow and the ground is somewhat white. what a freaking nightmare this was. tracking it nearly 8 days out only for this garbage. perfect track only to have a sleetfest with token flakes. disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: at least i saw snow and the ground is somewhat white. what a freaking nightmare this was. tracking it nearly 8 days out only for this garbage. perfect track only to have a sleetfest with token flakes. disgusting. To be honest I am more frustrated with how much time I wasted tracking this. I freaking stayed up for the Euro on Wed/Th nights. Thr 1/2" snow/sleet is nice and it will be nice to rid of it quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Figure my area will pick up another 2" before it's done. About the only saving grace. State will give the Heels a good game, they have a good team this year despite an awful coach. Talent will shine. Think the Heels by 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: They played really good againt Va Tech the other day. If they play like that they have a chance. The won't. Not a chance. We lose by at least 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The results sucked for many of us. But chasing this with you guys was still a lot of fun. And I'm looking forward to the next one. Outside of snow coming down, it's my favorite part of winter. And as far as the Pack goes, they're never going to be better than average, outside of a fluke, flash in the pan season. I don't watch much anymore. No need to waste the time. That said, this team is pretty fun to watch, when they play right. Dennis Smith Jr. is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Dennis Smith Jr. is the man. Jr vs Berry is going to be the main event methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, rawlee said: Jr vs Berry is going to be the main event methinks. Yup, I can see that. Are they playing tonight? Have they decided? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'd say it's 95% yes from reports I've read. Also I expect a ton of Pack fans there as most students aren't even back at UNC yet and obviously the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Game is still on as of 10:30 am but will make final decision on it in the next few hours. I don't see why it wouldn't be played. A lot of Pack fans are buying up tickets for cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, packbacker said: BigWeather - right there with you. Pack will always be a mediocre in Bball and Fball. I used to watch every game religiously but rarely watch now. I did happen to catch the game the other day which was the first of the season. Being a fan of the pack is like being of fan of snow in Raleigh, more times then not you will be disappointed. This bust today was as bad as the Clemson loss. The bust today was even worse than Carolina's loss to GT...and that's saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Maybe the hardcore mets are right about the problems posting snowmaps causes. This is the Euro/EPS from this morning. For Raleigh, unless we have a favorable Atlantic (50/50 and -NAO) and a 1040+hp located over the lakes extending east to Maine we will not snow, it's just that simple. Odds are winter is over, Nina background is still strong and odds favor a torch Feb. Hopefully next winter we can be in a weak Nino with a neutral QBO so we have a chance at HLB. I cancelled WB and SV...it's dumb paying money to track snow storms for GSO and the MA. This isn't enjoyable anymore. We have all been there. The euro had the same thing for me last year when I turned over to a mix. I didn't renew my wxbell this year thinking the winter was gonna be a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 One big positive...next time a winter storm is being modeled I can use "well you remember what happen in Jan 2017". I should put that in my signature. And, next time we bust, and we will, we can say well at least it wasn't as bad as Jan 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Regarding the time, yeah, that's the worst part of it. The older I get the more time seems valuable and I wasted many hours (including when I shouldn't have, distracting myself from other things) on this. The funny thing is even if we had jackpot'd I'd regret the time. Though I'm mostly a lurker, however, I do lurk for almost every storm and love keeping up with people like CR, Brick, PB, etc. I just need to get better about just lurking once a day, or a couple of times a day, and not the constant F5-fest I did this past week. As for comparing this loss to the Pack's FB loss to Clemson -- not sure that tracks. I understand it in terms of pain, but we weren't really supposed to ever be in it. This storm, however, seemed perfect -- and still managed to dud. The Clemson loss was like a low tracking off the coast and unexpectedly bombs, the training bands and freezing line setting up N-S bisecting Chatham county. As it winds up and draws cold air down the line advances east past Jordan Lake and gets to about the Chatham / Wake boundary. Just then the low moves past us in latitude and we end up with a dud. Never expected to be in it going in, had this huge OMG OMG OMG moment, but in the end it was same ol' same ol'. It's a testament to the mediocrity of Pack basketball that I can't really think of an equivalent to this storm (really great chance of winning and total failure). Maybe 1989 ACC Tournament 1 seed against 8 seed Maryland loss? As a high school senior heading to State that fall I should've taken it as a premonition. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 If Carolina plays as poorly as we did against Georgia Tech you guys will beat us handily. That was probably one of the biggest upsets in our history. Completely embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I would like to say thank you to those who most often post on this site. i've been a lurker/member here for a few years now. i'm east of Charlotte and didn't get the big snow, but i did get the amount of precip, just got the warm nose again. i love this site. i appreciate all that you do here and love seeing the data. we are trying to predict mother nature and there are always curve balls. and heck, we live in the South i always hope for a big snow, am usually disappointed but sometimes we get lucky. i still love getting excited by just the possibility. when it was snowing here this morning i put a nice chair in the window and watched it fall. my puppies got to experience winter weather for the first time and loved that too! hope we have another opportunity again this year... again thank you all!!! Trish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Anybody heard from the Brickster? Is he doing ok? Trish, you and BigWeather should post more! Glad we at least got to see some flakes fall. Hopefully, more to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER said: Everyone enjoy your cold rain and sleet? Now you know what it feels like to live in the Wilmington, NC area during winter. ;-) Har! Har! Har!!!!! OMG YOU are so friggin right!!!!!!! Congrats to those that got a "dusting of snow" especially,,, to those that got good amounts.. For all the others.. We down this way don't get hyped up at ALL.. As We hardly NEVER get snow, or Ice even. Our snow(s) always come as a pleasant surprise.. One GOOD thing is coming out of this, calling it Our silver lining.. At LEAST these Temps will kill the dern Skeeters off, here in the Low country until Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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