weatherfide Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, skbl17 said: I thought February 2015 was bad, but this is pathetic. At least back then the snow line was three miles to my north and I saw some snowflakes; now I don't even know when the RA/SN line will even make it to I-85, much less McDonough, before the whole thing is over. What I fear is that people around here (the public, not the great people at AmWX) will say, "Oh, we had a winter storm warning and the weather people said we'd get 3" of snow, but instead I got half an inch of ice and no snow! Why should I ever listen to them again? They have no idea what they're talking 'bout!" This is a true statement. They should have been much more cautious. Snow is extremely rare at this latitude on the earth. If there is any disagreement in modeling, go with the Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Brick getting shook big time! I do feel bad for Fishel/Gardner/Maze...nobody saw this, no model predicted this epic bust for Raleigh. RAH was tweeting maps of most likely see 7" across the area with a max of 12". This is the last winter storm I track, I won't believe anything a model spits out. This was a textbook setup for us...there was nothing that was a glaring problem, weak SLP, track off the panhandle off the coast, with cold air pressing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Look at this...it's snowing N/S/W of Wake Co. Literally wrapping around the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Look at this...it's snowing N/S/W of Wake Co. Literally wrapping around the county. You've got to be getting a few sleet pellets mixed in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yea, I'm totally going to complain now. We are at 32° with a sleet and rain mix in N. Raleigh and it doesn't look like we are going to be changing over to snow anytime soon. Maybe I'm just bitter but nope, I'm not happy for people in the Triad you are going to get a foot of snow. Our son lives and breathes soccer and pretty much sacrifices everything for games, practice and tournaments but tonight at his training my husband said he was a basket case. He kept running over to the window pressing his head against it looking for snow and he saw nothing. He drove his team crazy and his coach crazy but he is just obsessed. If we don't wake up with at least 2 inches of snow for him to sled on tomorrow he will be devastated. I thought that growing up in Fayetteville sucked because Raleigh always got snow but it seems like wake county always gets the screw job ever since he moved here. Sorry if you brought everyone bad luck. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: You've got to be getting a few sleet pellets mixed in now. Nope...pouring rain. I just walked out and checked the rain gauge and it says 0.3". That's a 1/3 of what we were supposed to get. The CC line looks to be 100 yards from my house and I am not so sure it will move past me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, snowinnc said: Yea, I'm totally going to complain now. We are at 32° with a sleet and rain mix in N. Raleigh and it doesn't look like we are going to be changing over to snow anytime soon. Maybe I'm just bitter but nope, I'm not happy for people in the Triad you are going to get a foot of snow. Our son lives and breathes soccer and pretty much sacrifices everything for games, practice and tournaments but tonight at his training my husband said he was a basket case. He kept running over to the window pressing his head against it looking for snow and he saw nothing. He drove his team crazy and his coach crazy but he is just obsessed. If we don't wake up with at least 2 inches of snow for him to sled on tomorrow he will be devastated. I thought that growing up in Fayetteville sucked because Raleigh always got snow but it seems like wake county always gets the screw job ever since he moved here. Sorry if you brought everyone bad luck. Rant over. I am with you...my kids are going to be crushed in the morning to wake up to rain soaked roads. But, that's the new norm here. Will take them to that singing pig movie and let them stock up on candy/popcorn. We have had many a busts before, but nothing like this, where it looked to be a solid winter event, snow/sleet, really cold and a driving 33F rain for hours. It's a new low for Raleigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Even if it does start sleeting/snowing, how is anything going to accumulate with this much water on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even if it does start sleeting/snowing, how is anything going to accumulate with this much water on the ground. That's the ground temp argument like repackaged in different paper. If we get the NAM temps in the mid 20s and heavy snow, we'll pile it up man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am with you...my kids are going to be crushed in the morning to wake up to rain soaked roads. But, that's the new norm here. Will take them to that singing pig movie and let them stock up on candy/popcorn. We have had many a busts before, but nothing like this, where it looked to be a solid winter event, snow/sleet, really cold and a driving 33F rain for hours. It's a new low for Raleigh... This truly has been an epic fail. What makes it even worse is that teachers at our kiddos school have been talking about this all week. They even sent them each a snow packet for homework the kids can do at home on Monday since they knew it would be a snow day. Nice job teachers, way to get your students hopes up only to crush them. He also loves Nerf guns so maybe will just head to target and I will let him buy a couple. That way he could just shoot at the 27 pellets of sleet we have here. Thank goodness our girls are not as obsessed with snow as he is. He told me tonight if we didn't get lots of snow overnight we were going to have to move to either Alaska or Canada. That isn't going to happen so we better get some freaking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: I do feel bad for Fishel/Gardner/Maze...nobody saw this, no model predicted this epic bust for Raleigh. RAH was tweeting maps of most likely see 7" across the area with a max of 12". This is the last winter storm I track, I won't believe anything a model spits out. This was a textbook setup for us...there was nothing that was a glaring problem, weak SLP, track off the panhandle off the coast, with cold air pressing in. Not so. We have 2 VERY GLARING problems. No cold air in place before the storm and NO high in place to provide CAD. Once the NAM shifted last evening I knew this was over for many of us. Until we get those 2 things in place the models can not be anything but wrong when they say we get a good snow. 100% of the time. No exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, jshetley said: Not so. We have 2 VERY GLARING problems. No cold air in place before the storm and NO high in place to provide CAD. Once the NAM shifted last evening I knew this was over for many of us. Until we get those 2 things in place the models can not be anything but wrong when they say we get a good snow. 100% of the time. No exceptions. Yep...hard to argue. But we have had events like this in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 About to punt and go to bed. CC radar can't make it through CLT. Creeping back NW. Congrats to the same folks that win out every time. At some point, we'll learn to stop hoping/betting against climo. You'd think the people who get paid money to do this would learn as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Yep...hard to argue. But we have had events like this in the past You all in the RDU area probably stand a decent chance of salvaging this as the cold air pours in tomorrow morning, but it is not happening for SC. NO MATTER what the models say they are not to be believed in SC without those 2 things in place. With the cold air already in place this would have been an unbelievable event just like Jan of 1988, but the cold air was not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: About to punt and go to bed. CC radar can't make it through CLT. Creeping back NW. Congrats to the same folks that win out every time. At some point, we'll learn to stop hoping/betting against climo. You'd think the people who get paid money to do this would learn as well. Yep. We actually got better forecasts back in the 1980's than we do now. They live and die with the useless models now. Maybe some of the models need to be gotten rid of to force the mets to actually forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 One of the bigger problems is that Mets put out these "call maps" multiple days ahead of the actual storm, and then they change them multiple times between their first one and the storms arrival. In that time, all kinds of things change in the models and even the models have no f'ing idea what is going to happen. So by the time the storm gets here, basically everyone in the area has been told at one point or another they are going to get a meaningful snowfall when you know that is not humanly possible except once every decade or two. But they keep doing this year in and year out because SNOW gets ratings and SNOW gets hits to websites. And the only thing that gets bigger ratings and bigger hits is BIGGER snow storms for EVERYONE! Id love for mets to just say, "You know what, this area of the state has a chance for a significant snowfall" and leave it at that. No call maps, no "this area is going to get 6-8 inches" 3 days ahead of the storm. Just give us a warning and leave it at that. But it'll never happen because that doesn't sell ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 BOOM all snow now! never had a doubt!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'm going to bed. I can see rain anytime. Like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I'm going to bed. I can see rain anytime. Like in the morning. Me too...cc line stopped like a mile from my house. Pouring rain and Maze posted good chance we stay rain all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Stupid how TWC sends to road reporters to Raleigh and Charlotte just to witness wet slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just gonna say I don't think this hobby is entirely healthy for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Another epic bust south of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Stupid how TWC sends to road reporters to Raleigh and Charlotte just to witness wet slush. I found WRALs Drive 5 zipping through the dusted streets of Durham much more entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: I found WRALs Drive 5 zipping through the dusted streets of Durham much more entertaining. Hope they don't hydroplane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Brick getting shook big time! But the hrrrrrrrrr is looking good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, thess said: Just gonna say I don't think this hobby is entirely healthy for some folks. Agreed! I'm pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Last year we got a little dusting on our deck. My daughter (1 and a half at the time) had enormous fun building a little snowman and everything. She has been asking for more snow ever since. I have been looking forward all week to waking her up on Saturday morning with a white covering and seeing the look on her face. Man, I am actually embarrassed to be as upset as I am, but I cannot help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDU_North Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 This storm has been a real dud for the North Hills area of Raleigh! Happy for others, but damned if not jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Fighting a losing battle outside. Snow is falling faster than I can sweep it off the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The nice snow I was getting just changed back to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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