Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, superjames1992 said: The HRRR is usually amped and warm, so I wouldn't worry about it. I'm worried about the NAM and RGEM, especially the RGEM. Is there anything that could legitimately happen to cause the mix line to be farther south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Cool so I have a better chance of meeting Jim Cantore than I do salvaging something to make breakfast from today :/ I should of went grocery shopping while still in Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HRRR has been spot on last few events in this area unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, rawlee said: HRRR has been spot on last few events in this area unfortunately. looking like a sleetfest with monster snow totals up to our nw, just like a few years ago. nam sure looks like it was onto something yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: looking like a sleetfest with monster snow totals up to our nw, just like a few years ago. nam sure looks like it was onto something yesterday. It sure does. And any remember the last time that NW South Carolina got more snow than Wake County? That's just a tough pill to swallow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I wish that Jim Cantore wasn't here. He is the total kiss of death when it comes to winter weather. We will be stuck with all the sleet and cold rain in Wake County. Can someone drive him over to the Triad please? No. Keep him. I'll take my (hopefully) 8" to 12" snow without the attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here comes the Cold rain on the GFS. At least we don't have to wait too long to break our hearts since the event is so close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 latest gfs shows the exact sleet line hrrr and rgem and nam does. not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ugh. Our kiddos teachers have been talking about a massive snowstorm this week so of course their hopes are up. Talk about being devastated when we get 2 inches of rain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rah nws should be ramping down snowfall totals for wake coming up. 12hrs of heavy sleet and rain while those to the nw get heavy snow. im nervous here by the airport bc the sleet usually overperforms, hope to see at least 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Maybe folks should listen to me more. This storm is done for the GSP metro along with Charlotte and Raleigh. Dec 2009 it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, jshetley said: Maybe folks should listen to me more. This storm is done for the GSP metro along with Charlotte. Lol what?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 note to self: never doubt the nam when it shows a warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Always, always fear the NW trend, even in the last 24 hours. 3 days out I want the jackpot in Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 After all this hype and watching a week of the strike zone being forecasted to be to my southeast, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see what happens tonight. I don't want to even physically move out of fear of the butterfly effect. I'm lowering my expectations and hoping for 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 looks nasty as **** on those latest hrrr maps. RDU up to just south of Roanoke Rapids looks to be a mixed mess. mby might end up being just north of it, and we know what that means. I'll take measurements if it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: note to self: never doubt the nam when it shows a warm nose. And always go with the warmest model. I've been pretty bearish on this storm for a while but still expected a couple inches of snow (or at least hoped for it). Now I'm not sure even that is doable, at least in and south of Cary/Raleigh. We never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 F*** this. First cliff dive/visit to this thread of the season. Seriously considering a drive up to Sugar or Beech for a chase and some spontaneous skiing. No way I'll be able to convince any friends to join though, so it'd just be a solo chase with the pup. Unsure if that's wise with no 4WD. Family also has a lake house at Gaston which looks to be almost in the jackpot zone still, but that's almost 4 hours from CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: note to self: never doubt the nam when it shows a warm nose. I'm going to write in my notes section on my phone to never doubt the NAM when it shows a warm nose as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well if we can't get anything here, I hope the bullseye are the slopes in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Fear the northwest trend. And I love how the mountain folks have just been sitting back watching us watch all the models knowing the entire time they were going to cash in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Remember, a good rule of thumb for snow in the south east is find the model that gives you the least amount of snow, cut it in half and roll with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Newb question: If this NW trend is very predictable by humans, why isn't it predictable by models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 i thought "imby" questions were forbidden during storms? i ask because in the models thread well over half of the posts are pure IMBY....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 At this point, only hope for CLT is that the 850 low track is being misinterpreted by the short term models and it stays to our SE, correct? Otherwise WAA is going to bust these forecasts bad. What are the odds this could happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BillT said: i thought "imby" questions were forbidden during storms? i ask because in the models thread well over half of the posts are pure IMBY....... The mods will clean them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, thess said: Newb question: If this NW trend is very predictable by humans, why isn't it predictable by models? Good question but I would assume it's because they're AI. They have to be programmed to reason, whereas we just understand it based on past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 someone check on pack and cold rain, prob laughing their *** off. they've been right for days now. kudos guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Unsure if that's wise with no 4WD. Very unwise, especially considering it's already been snowing in those areas. It's already getting slick and you haven't even decided if you're leaving yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Models are run by specific mathematical equations that have to make assumptions about the state of the atmosphere. These assumptions result in model "biases" over time (i.e. the NW trend -- out in time, models forecast the storm too far to the east. They "see" the atmosphere better as the lead time decreases. As the "see" better, they "correct" their solutions/storm tracks. Usually, this corrects NW, as the modal bias is to model the storm too far to the east). Humans can observe these trends over time, recognize them, and adjust for them in their forecasting. Until we get to a state where the entire atmosphere can be observed and modeled, models will always have certain biases. It's up to us to recognize them and use them to our advantage when forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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