superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm sitting here on my beachfront hotel balcony in San Juan listening to the waves and refreshing model runs for a storm which I won't experience affecting a locale (NC) in which I no longer live (granted, my parents do and I go back somewhat often). I'm not sure what this says about me! Meanwhile, I'm becoming more and more jealous, wishing I was there, as modeling trends look better and better for GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: I'm sitting here on my beachfront hotel balcony in San Juan listening to the waves and refreshing model runs for a storm which I won't experience affecting a locale (NC) in which I no longer live (granted, my parents do and I go bs m somewhat often). I'm not sure what this says about me! Meanwhile, I'm becoming more and more jealous, wishing I was there, as modeling trends look better and better for GSO. GSO is going to be digitally sleeting heavily by 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: We can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: GSO is going to be digitally sleeting heavily by 18z tomorrow. LOL, if the NW trend doesn't stop, that could be true! It'll be a Big Frosty special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, WeatherNC said: Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA? Most certainly. This is the sanitarium. We're concerned about everything in here. We really need Pack and Widre in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If nothing the NAM is consistent. Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherNC said: Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA? LOL, you guys might need to head up to the farm in the Shenandoah Valley to hit the jackpot. (the one you guys went to for Snowquester in March 2013) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA? The QPF max is a little west of the globals and considering the SREF I would think that's about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: LOL, you guys might need to head up to the farm in the Shenandoah Valley to hit the jackpot. (the one you guys went to for Snowquester in March 2013) Oh gosh...don't remind me of that...maybe that's how I get the NAM stop shifting N...book a trip to NoVA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Oh gosh...don't remind me of that...maybe that's how I get the NAM stop shifting N...book a trip to NoVA! It'll be a Lakes cutter before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 if the sref plumes gave rdu 15"+ (which it did in the 2015 storm) i'd throw it out, not concerned at all with that. gfs ens members are all hits, euro is a hit, euro ens are hits, rgem is a hit. really we are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM is a disaster...maybe it is correct. It's got heavy snows all the way back to TN. RDU is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: if the sref plumes gave rdu 15"+ (which it did in the 2015 storm) i'd throw it out, not concerned at all with that. gfs ens members are all hits, euro is a hit, euro ens are hits, rgem is a hit. really we are in a good spot. Completely agree, BUT I would feel a lot better if the NAM ceased with the warm west routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: NAM is a disaster...maybe it is correct. It's got heavy snows all the way back to TN. RDU is all rain. Haha awesome. Just remember, we got this one all the way to 30 hours. We were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 i just dont get the nam being on an island 24 hrs out? esp with the rgem in line with the euro and gfs ens. really weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Haha awesome. Just remember, we got this one all the way to 30 hours. We were close. I guess verbatim we are a lot of sleet then temps do finally crash hard and we flip to snow. But goodness...it has solids snows into Indiana and WV...several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I guess verbatim we are a lot of sleet then temps do finally crash hard and we flip to snow. But goodness...it has solids snows into Indiana and WV...several inches. this is either going to be the coup of the century for the nam or we will be laughing 24hrs from now at how nervous it made us...i hope the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: this is either going to be the coup of the century for the nam or we will be laughing 24hrs from now at how nervous it made us...i hope the latter. I don't think there was a single ensemble member that showed this on the GEFS or EPS today...70 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I guess verbatim we are a lot of sleet then temps do finally crash hard and we flip to snow. But goodness...it has solids snows into Indiana and WV...several inches. Is it more amped than 18z? I'm guessing now that mid Atlantic is in play, we'll start seeing board crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 and i highly doubt the lp will be WEST of sav tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 56 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Ladies and gentlemen, we are moments away from one of the most horrific NAM runs of all time. Sit back and enjoy the view as history unfolds right in front of your view screen. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ORF to GSP, great run if you are west of that line, Richmond gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Watch this thing go WAY north now and give only rain from the TN-KY and NC-VA line and south. My call for nothing in Jan may just stand yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Is it more amped than 18z? I'm guessing now that mid Atlantic is in play, we'll start seeing board crashes. Looks the same but much more QPF. Verbatim it has 1" QPF of sleet so 3" of sleet with 0.25" of snow. So that would be 5" of sleet/snow, if NAM is correct. Reminds me of Jan 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, jshetley said: Watch this thing go WAY north now and give only rain from the TN-KY and NC-VA line and south. My call for nothing in Jan may just stand yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Weather models suck. True story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks the same but much more QPF. Verbatim it has 1" QPF of sleet so 3" of sleet with 0.25" of snow. So that would be 5" of sleet/snow, if NAM is correct. Reminds me of Jan 2010. When does the RGEM come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: When does the RGEM come out? 30 mins...I do think the NAM is probably a hair to far NW but don't think it's that overdone. It does do fairly good job on temp profiles so that's what's most concerning. I would take the RGEM over the NAM any day but you can't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 4km NAM is all sleet and no snow. If these NAM's are correct then I give up...this would be a tough pill to swallow. I do think we taint a good bit but to get no snow with what the other 18 models are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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