chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, triadwx said: I am glued to the window. Nothing yet. Temps 37-38. Keep us posted!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 There still seems to a lack of consensus. 12z Euro says, "No snow for you, Georgia." Several days ago, people cheering for one model will be now cheering for another and vice versa. What a strange storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro missed the cold air press last week,finally caught on.Then it missed the shortwave separation for days till getting a clue.Now it could be missing the partial phase here at the end.It's srill the best model and will be right most of the time but not every time. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Everyone is speechless. Darn it. We need to make weather modeling great again. (Was it ever though?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 To separate or not to seperate...that's the question for a whole bunch of people in the SE. Surprised the GEF/GFS are so locked in. So it's USA/UK vs Canada/Europe. Wonder how the German and French model are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro missed the cold air press last week,finally caught on.Then it missed the shortwave separation for days till getting a clue.Now it could be missing the partial phase here at the end.It's srill the best model and will be right most of the time but not every time. Carry on. I agree, it was late to the ballgame on every aspect of this storm. I expect it to ramp up totals to the west (I hope!) Raleigh guys, I'm telling you you're good anyway you pack it. Should be feeling good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm glad QPF is lower , I've had enough rain for awhile, need to dry out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Can I cash out with my 7 inches shown on the BUFKIT or is it to late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It's like a funeral in the event thread. Start playing a funeral dirge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm glad QPF is lower , I've had enough rain for awhile, need to dry out! They lowered the High temp expected today to 49 from 51. That is good news I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said: It's like a funeral in the event thread. Start playing a funeral dirge. its more fun in this thread anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ok, serious question. since this is a gulf low, is there any chance that Saturday we will be moaning about thunderstorms in the gulf robbing moisture and creating a dryslot for someone who would have otherwise got good moisture? I asked this in the main thread the other day (i thought it was a valid question) but i think it might have been considered trolling or something. Probably best to leave the storm thread for mets anyway to not clutter it up even with questions. But it just seems so many times like this when we have a gulf low and we feel confident we are going to get a good thumping (maybe not necessarily my backyard, but somebody in N. GA) and then all of a sudden there is a dryslot and i hear that the moisture was robbed by thunderstorms in the gulf. I have not heard anyone discussing this and just wondered if the this is NOT something to worry about with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 For Georgia just maybe a Hail Mary or bottom of the ninth miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Keep in mind, folks, we're in a drought. We need the rain. Btw I heard Februry was looking promising. So there's always that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If I get the 12z GFS bufkit of 10.8" for GSO, I'm cashing out with a bang and will start celebrating our forthcoming spring. But I don't put much stock into bufkit estimates. I'll be shocked if I get half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, NGTim said: ok, serious question. since this is a gulf low, is there any chance that Saturday we will be moaning about thunderstorms in the gulf robbing moisture and creating a dryslot for someone who would have otherwise got good moisture? I asked this in the main thread the other day (i thought it was a valid question) but i think it might have been considered trolling or something. Probably best to leave the storm thread for mets anyway to not clutter it up even with questions. But it just seems so many times like this when we have a gulf low and we feel confident we are going to get a good thumping (maybe not necessarily my backyard, but somebody in N. GA) and then all of a sudden there is a dryslot and i hear that the moisture was robbed by thunderstorms in the gulf. I have not heard anyone discussing this and just wondered if the this is NOT something to worry about with this storm. That is always a concern with a Miller A. Temps first IMHO and then moisture second. There are times that thunderstorms can aide in moisture from the GOM but that seems to be rare these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So which model had a comma head going just South of the GSP, CLT, RAH area???! That was fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: So which model had a comma head going just South of the GSP, CLT, RAH area???! That was fun! I think that was the GFS so you know that will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Damn, now I'm gonna have to return my sled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't envy the mets at the Peachtree City NWS office right now. They must be flustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Creators of call maps seem to get lazy when it comes go forecasting anything 100 miles beyond their hometown. Understandable and natural of course, but don't pretend you're making a regional forecast when you're only really focused on your own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I don't envy the mets at the Peachtree City NWS office right now. They must be flustered. i think the new "at least this much, most likely, and potential for this much" winter products are going to help them out as they don't have to put out just one number and then get grilled on it, for a situation that is going to be very variable over such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, NGTim said: i think the new "at least this much, most likely, and potential for this much" winter products are going to help them out as they don't have to put out just one number and then get grilled on it, for a situation that is going to be very variable over such a large area. I agree. It does give them a lot more needed wiggle room without becoming overly vague. Edit: I meant does instead of doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I agree. It doesn't give them a lot more needed wiggle room without becoming overly vague. yes. and they are fun as heck to look at as well. it really is unfair that they are expected to tell to the inch how much it is going to snow and exactly where, and that is just not possible in GA where so many things can go wrong, as opposed to other areas that don't have two oceans, and and nearby mountains to deal with. So in addition to the wiggle room, it also provides us the public with more info. Its a brilliant win-win in my mind. They ask for feedback since its experimental, and I've already given it high grades. I am curious to watch it in it first debut storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nancy Drew Mysteries Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FFC just issued Winter Storm Warning for Atlanta and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: WPC went with a GFS/Euro blend in their noted 19z update That's like blending fish into your milkshake. YUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Bufkits of .04 and .00 in CAE. Wow how things change. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, packfan98 said: That's like blending fish into your milkshake. YUCK! Took the middle ground. Ok, so 4 inch on the EURO + 10 inches for CLT = 14 inches / 2 = 7 inches. Is that how it works? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 My amateur Wilkes-inspired call map for NC drawn on my iPad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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