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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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Interesting...


PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WITH
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR N FL/GA SAT MOVING TOWARD SE
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH STRONGER AS THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO CONSENSUS.  THE SPREAD REMAINS,
GENERALLY, IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE ITSELF.  THE 00Z ECMWF AND
LESSER SO THE ECENS MEAN KEEP WITH CONTINUITY OF THE LAST DAY OR
SO OF SLOWER SOLUTIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE SUITE
WHICH GENERALLY IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS.  WHILE THE
SPREAD IN THE TIMING REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE
MODELS WITHIN THE SPREAD SEEMS TRADITIONAL OF A PATTERN THAT IS
BECOMING BETTER HANDLED OVERALL.  AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR
SECTION...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND
MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. 
THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE BLEND.   AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS
PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS
IN WEIGHTING.  CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY INCREASING BUT REMAINS NEAR
AVERAGE.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe the Euro does better with temp and tracks but vastly underestimates QPF, especially to the west.  That's the story in the Sanitarium anyway.

Qpf max shifted a hair east that run.  Don't know what to think except the NAM's are terrible.   Blend of the GFS works for us and the GEFS were unreal.  Let's hope 0z holds  LOL

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