magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Widre is AmericanWX's version of the chorus in a Greek tragedy. He tries to warn us about the potential potholes along the road to our blissful winter wonderland and is sometimes right. Those of us who are irrationally exuberant often don't like to hear it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I agree for y'all. I still think we have some temp concerns but we will see. Have you gone back back to work yet? Back tomorrow. Terrible time to go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Ummmm....it would be Dec 2000 all over again. But, RAH is like 30-40 miles from 1" so a SE shift and yes it would suck. That's something that could change day of the storm. December 2000 was 1-2 feet across the whole piedmont, all snow. No temp issues. This storm is still only looking like a few inches at best, with some mixing concerns at the beginning. Not a great comparison. Also models are a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Back tomorrow. Terrible time to go back. Will they not give you an early snow day? Are we we going to restart the stock market game or let it die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: "The BL Temps Suck Guy" -- LOVE IT! But seriously, we're gonna fight with them Friday evening. Precip always moves in faster than expected with these set ups, so we're gonna lose some precip to the rain monster. Yeah if it moves in fast enough, I'd expect some rain to start. Hopefully, we get enough robust lift for several hours after the BL cools and we pile up some snow for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I love it when the non-serious/banter thread is just as informative (if not more so) than the main discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: Will they not give you an early snow day? Are we we going to restart the stock market game or let it die? Start it back. That thread is dead. We gotta light it back up. Let's start on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Start it back. That thread is dead. We gotta light it back up. Let's start on Monday. Alright. PR is dead it looks like. Maybe that will breathe some life into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Local in house model on news, RPM?, has precip in here and just south of CLT by 6 pm Friday! That would be mucho no Bueno! BL fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah if it moves in fast enough, I'd expect some rain to start. Hopefully, we get enough robust lift for several hours after the BL cools and we pile up some snow for a change. GEM is 1" QPF for you...sweet! 850's start at -6 and roughly stay there with temps dropping into mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Thanks for responses. I've mentioned it before, but even in my ignorance, the people who only post negative posts stand out just as much as the people who only post positive ones, and I tend to be more invested in the ones who are clearly taking a more rounded approach. Not that anyone cares what I'm invested in, I'm just always interested in how the cultures of different message board forums work. (Although this is literally the only one I'm on where I have nothing to contribute other than random meta commentary, or "yep no power near Southpoint mall" during Matthew.)(P.s., mackerel_sky, I particularly like the way you're always cheerful even when it's bad news, and I'm glad the tornado didn't cause you major problems.) (Oh, and man, meteorology hobby culture is such a crazy mix of science and superstition! It reminds me of the brief time I spent on some vegas gambling forums! I totally understand why it's like that, especially in this area. I've seen the snow shield in action.)Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The model hugging has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Can anybody give me the 18z GEFS mean snow accumulation map? Wanna see how it lines up with the 0z GEFS when that comes out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEM is 1" QPF for you...sweet! 850's start at -6 and roughly stay there with temps dropping into mid 20's. Only 46 hrs to go. What could possibly go wrong? By the way, QPF is always overdone, temps the day of are always higher, and cold air is always late funneling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Only 46 hrs to go. What could possibly go wrong? By the way, QPF is always overdone, temps the day of are always higher, and cold air is always late funneling in. So we cut that in half, turn more of it into rain, and assume lower ratios. That gives you about 2-3"? Still not bad, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: So we cut that in half, turn more of it into rain, and assume lower ratios. That gives you about 2-3"? Still not bad, I guess. That's about my expectation. 2-4. Almost warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Oh, and you just know that Gulf convection is going to play a negative role here. It will. In the meantime, it's imperative that the Euro hold serve tonight. That is a must have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Oh, and you just know that Gulf convection is going to play a negative role here. It will. In the meantime, it's imperative that the Euro hold serve tonight. That is a must have. It won't. It was a jerk at 12z and it'll be a jerk at 00z. It's gonna look like the NAM, I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Oh, and you just know that Gulf convection is going to play a negative role here. It will. That's the truth. Gulf convection and unmodeled, surprise warm noses are the best! The storm on the DWD-ICON is sure something, though it looks like a pretty big outlier right now. I think you're in a decent spot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: It won't. It was a jerk at 12z and it'll be a jerk at 00z. It's gonna look like the NAM, I guarantee it. Yeah, it's definitely gonna come in warmer with all kinds of warm noses, too amped, and dry slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: That's the truth. Gulf convection and unmodeled, surprise warm noses are the best! The storm on the DWD-ICON is sure something, though it looks like a pretty big outlier right now. How can we tell where the R/S line is on that thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How can we tell where the R/S line is on that thing? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=dwd_icon&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=dwd_icon&stn2=TT850&hh2=066&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054 Looks like you'd be all-snow in southern Wake on the six-hour 850 mb panels, though you just know there's some warm noses at other layers in there ready to bring the taint. Here is the ICON meteogram for RDU: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=dwd_icon&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=dwd_icon&stn2=TT850&hh2=066&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054 Looks like you'd be all-snow on the six-hour 850 mb panels, though you just know there's some other warm noses in there ready to bring the taint. Thanks. I'm right on the line on that one. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Besides the French, German, Canadian, UK, & Japanese models is there any other ones we can drag out? If there's an Australian 00z model showing jackpot for RDU, I wanna know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: The model hugging has begun. Beware of the 48 hour modeled jackpot zone. Those in it will not get what is predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Beware of the 48 hour modeled jackpot zone. Those in it will not get what is predicted. she's coming NW 20-30miles In the next 48hrs. Take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm honestly more afraid of being too far NW than too far SE with this system. I'm afraid there will be more southeast trends in the future, leaving me with little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Stupid cold air! What do you have to do to get a snow event here to start out as snow???? My high temp of 43 and rain coming in around 5 pm ish, sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Stupid cold air! What do you have to do to get a snow event here to start out as snow???? My high temp of 43 and rain coming in around 5 pm ish, sucks! In this particular scenario, highly doubt your local tv stations have mentioned it, but rain in your area will help wash away salt/brine and also leave ice underneath the snow pack vs areas further north just seeing snow. Often under-looked and indirectly related to helping increase snow totals on the roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: He posted too many Hammertime gifs at the other site! He broked it! Yeah, I'm so glad there s new weenie weather site for his gifs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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