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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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45 minutes ago, Jon said:

Btw - check out how much this thread is rolling! Good god this was a great idea.

The nuthouse is taking off! I knew it would. A fun thread to turn our manic weather depression into a bit of light-hearted back and forth.

34 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is what GFS thinks Dec will finish up as.  I guess those warm seasonals were correct after all. Dec was supposed to be our coldest month....

CFS looking good as we said it would last week! Also as of today, the reds and browns are returning to its JAN temp probability forecast.

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12z GEFS had some interesting changes after the day 10-12 cold shot.  Finally starts to build a ridge out west but just off the coast so still a -PNA.  When looking at the +QBO/wNina v/s the +QBO/sNina the 12z GEFS and CMC-ens is kind of in between.  The wNina has a better Aleutian ridge that builds poleward and almost connects to the scand. ridge building toward Greenland and the sNina don't.  Both composite sets have a atlantic ridge but the sNina combines it with a SER so the SE is much warmer, which is what the GEFS shows.  Obviously we want the wNina pattern as that gives us a chance, the sNina patter doesn't.  I don't see why come mid Jan we aren't in the wNina/+QBO pattern....but then again, we do suck.  

The sNINA/wQBO v/s the w/Nina/wQBO really diverge in Feb, the sNina is a furnace and the wNina's are very wintery.

Screen Shot 2016-12-27 at 12.49.37 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-12-27 at 12.56.35 PM.png

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