NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 days ago: "Temps are unequivocally not going to be an issue". I knew better: On 2/17/2020 at 11:00 AM, BullCityWx said: As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level. Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Actually I think it's kinda cool. And we get some tourist dollars in winter. I'm sure Elizabeth City won't be complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... why not just drive to the mtns which is a lot closer? Most likely will have the same totals. Plus theres nothing prettier than seeing snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: For the big snow in the mountains last winter, a couple drove up from Orlando, granted that was a monster storm, not a couple of inches lol Yeah. I’ll chase 2/2.5 hours to the higher elevations in Avery county for a moderate event. If I’m chasing 800+ miles I’m flying to Breckinridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If I'm chasing 800 miles it's to the Tug for at least 3 feet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 2 days ago: "Temps are unequivocally not going to be an issue". I knew better: Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations. It snowed heavily here for 6 hours start to finish and I wound up with a half inch on elevated surfaces that melted as soon as the precip moved out. You’re right, it matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If I'm chasing snow 800 miles away it will be done on an airplane and I will be going to a ski resort 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 So, what are your IMBY predictions? I am going with 3 inches here in Garner, NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, what are your IMBY predictions? I am going with 3 inches here in Garner, NC. 3 inches of RAIN. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, what are your IMBY predictions? I am going with 3 inches here in Garner, NC. .5” in Fountain Out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: 3 inches of RAIN. Any hotels with availability up near your house? I don’t want to miss out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, WarmNose said: Any hotels with availability up near your house? I don’t want to miss out oh yeah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: In his/her defense, if we had 2 snowless seasons in a row, some here would be contemplating a similar drive I know someone flying 2900.0 miles for 24" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, Snownado said: 800 miles would be from Raleigh to Chicago. I can't see anyone in Raleigh driving all the way to Chicago for a few inches of snow. Who would want to got to that garbage pit? Alot nice areas around the GL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 For the upstate peeps, this one just isn't for us. Typically we suffer the "cold chasing moisture" syndrome and this is going to be on full display tomorrow. We may see a quick mix or full changeover at the end but it just is what is. Eastern upstate could well get in on a couple inches but the cold just isn't there for most. Going to be hard watching all of NC get a solid snow and eastern sections with the big dog, but c'est la vie for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: For the upstate peeps, this one just isn't for us. Typically we suffer the "cold chasing moisture" syndrome and this is going to be on full display tomorrow. We may see a quick mix or full changeover at the end but it just is what is. Eastern upstate could well get in on a couple inches but the cold just isn't there for most. Going to be hard watching all of NC get a solid snow and eastern sections with the big dog, but c'est la vie for us. But we e got the SREF on our side! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just put us out of our misery already. I’m tired of waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Just put us out of our misery already. I’m tired of waiting. Just watch Dale Gilbert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Packbacker sighting and RainCold! No sign of Widre yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Packbacker sighting and RainCold! No sign of Widre yet though. Careful. Brick Tamland might show up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Start of the lower-res NAM is looking waaaaarm bc of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's been a while for me. When is the time it usually all falls apart for us? Is it the late night runs tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Careful. Brick Tamland might show up too. If we are worthy, he just might! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, thess said: It's been a while for me. When is the time it usually all falls apart for us? Is it the late night runs tonight? Yesterday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I honestly think its kind of silly to rush to the grocery store for milk and bread. Worst case scenario youre stuck at home until noon on Friday. With a strong late Feb sun I imagine there will be a lot of melting on Fri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Snownado said: I honestly think its kind of silly to rush to the grocery store for milk and bread. Worst case scenario youre stuck at home until noon on Friday. With a strong late Feb sun I imagine there will be a lot of melting on Fri. Hard to melt rain puddles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looking at WRF and HRRR, wreaks of desperation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Looking at WRF and HRRR, wreaks of desperation GSP must have read Grit’s forecast just before pulling the plug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, WarmNose said: GSP must have read Grit’s forecast just before pulling the plug Currently a snowy 54 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Currently a snowy 54 degrees Motel 6 in Landrum still got any availability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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