FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 My 4000th post. Bummer of a day. Things not looking good for the SE in the short term and long term. La nina looks to be in control and providing the typical pattern that keeps the cold to the west. Of course I have hope for the rest of winter, fab February has saved us the last few years, but right now there's no excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Y'all giving up to quick on late next week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Y'all giving up to quick on late next week!! +1 Im waiting till at least Tuesday. But thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Still CLOSE CALL with all the bad trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Y'all giving up to quick on late next week!! I'll give up 96 hours out if it doesn't change. But not a minute sonner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So what's everyone's spring forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'll give up 96 hours out if it doesn't change. But not a minute sonner. I'll give in at 72 hrs if it's not even close at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: So what's everyone's spring forecast? Hot March and severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Thought the Nina was pretty much dead? SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing. CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes. Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...would be my guess. I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE. I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving. If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960. If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. Would be a break, anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing. CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes. Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes. Great explanation Pack, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Strong agreement from the 18z GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Would I be a bad person if I said that I'd rather have a bitter cold/dry period at this point since the storm is looking to be a non event? Not at all and I'm with you 1000% But it looks warm and damp (fog damp) - but I'm still sticking with what I said in October - Warm Dec, normal Jan with a chance of one major blast sneaking in around or after the 15th, and a wet/cool Feb, with summer starting in March (hope I'm wrong about Jan and Feb and March and rather it deep freezes, but the tropics haven't said so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We have no need for bitter cold without precip. Getting down to 20-25 is enough. Anything lower and with dry weather is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well - Ryan has a glimmer of hope as he tailgates in Miami Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago Can't give specific numbers, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say next weekend will be cold and snowy from coast-to-coast. Winter. 5 replies 43 retweets 68 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 51 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Y'all giving up to quick on late next week!! If I was on the state line 1200 feet up, I definetly wouldn't eitheir. Hope our boy Jonathon is happy now as he went from cold dry to sitting in the jackpot along with the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, jshetley said: We have no need for bitter cold without precip. Getting down to 20-25 is enough. Anything lower and with dry weather is useless. Cold dry is blessing. Cold wet is a blessing even at 33 and rain. Have at the 5 to 6 months of 90/70 . It's refreshing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table. First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in. Wow was talking about this I think. Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this. The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table. First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in. Wow was talking about this I think. Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this. The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back. Yea might have to start rooting for this scenerio. Probably as good a odds as hoping the ns energy doesn't phase with first wave until it's delivered the cold goods. It would definetly benefit apps and northern GA, northern AL,TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: If I was on the state line 1200 feet up, I definetly wouldn't eitheir. Hope our boy Jonathon is happy now as he went from cold dry to sitting in the jackpot along with the mid atlantic. Jackpot? I literally live 20 minutes from the NC border. Now, I'd be excited if I lived in a line from Roanoke-Lynchburg-Fredericksburg. You guys seriously act like I live in D.C. I could be at Frosty's house or Greensboro in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 For reference, this is where I live. The lee side snow hole. http://m.imgur.com/as4UEfR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This will be a historically bad winter. Played golf yesterday in 60 temps with 25 mph gusts. Shot an 82. Happy with my game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 28 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Well - Ryan has a glimmer of hope as he tailgates in Miami Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago Can't give specific numbers, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say next weekend will be cold and snowy from coast-to-coast. Winter. 5 replies 43 retweets 68 likes From the coast of Maine to the coast of Washington. Forecasts with no discernible event horizon are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The Brazilian Model will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: So what's everyone's spring forecast? Who knows what the sensible weather weather will be, but you can be sure the NAO will be severely negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 About to go Ice Skating in Greensboro with a woman that I met from Madrid, Spain a few months ago. I think they may have a better chance at getting snow than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Forecasts with no discernible event horizon are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, pcbjr said: Haha come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, southernskimmer said: About to go Ice Skating in Greensboro with a woman that I met from Madrid, Spain a few months ago. I think they may have a better chance at getting snow than us. Show her your triple sow cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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