Tarheel17 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Any room in here? Seems the western half of the Triangle has cashed in on a few events recently. Charlotte unfortunately remains a battle-line. Maybe I shouldn't have moved lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said: Any room in here? Seems the western half of the Triangle has cashed in on a few events recently. Charlotte unfortunately remains a battle-line. Maybe I shouldn't have moved lol Just dont move to south charlotte/union county. Even when charlotte cashes in, we get nothing. Basically always below the snow line...atleast we have been for the 6 years ive lived here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I'd like to see a repeat of Jan 2000 where I get good snow and the I-85 area and north is left OUT of it. They have had enough up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living. It nailed it for me whereas alot of other models were throwing out a couple inches here. Nam was about the only one saying nothing...which is what i got. Still seems to be the best one to depict the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living. Wasn't wrong for Charlotte unfortunately. Point taken overall, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I thought the NAM was perfect. It certainly had the warm nose right. As far as upstate SC goes, if 5-6 models snow winter weather and just 1 does not that model will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: Just dont move to south charlotte/union county. Even when charlotte cashes in, we get nothing. Basically always below the snow line...atleast we have been for the 6 years ive lived here I’ve fared a little better here NW of town but have had higher totals all around me since building over here 7 years ago. Always something whether anemic rates, tiny flake size, sleet, etc. Kills me as growing up in northern Catawba County always put me on the good size of these kind of storms. Wife wants to move back home to somewhere around Asheville so hopefully this time next year I’ll be posting from 3000+ feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Treat the GFSv3 like the DGEX from now on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Man my parents in High Point got a ton of snow and here in Matthews nothing (basically). Freezing rain and misery. It was snowing at 1-2 am and it was absolutely beautiful. What a dreamcrusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Living in Johnston and working in Durham is punishment on many levels the hours of commuting every day and them getting 10+"s while I get rain every storm. Time to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Dunkman said: Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living. I think it seems to have done a decent job still, though? It still generally showed a good storm for GSO, but it seems to have nailed CLT’s sleet/ZR fest. At least the warm nose isn’t over performing this time. Seems like Durham is really doing better than expected, too. Anyways, looks like 10”+ there, which would have been my biggest storm since 2002. Quite possibly 12”+, which would have been the biggest storm I’ve ever experienced. Finally, a storm where the crazy QPF forecasts actually happen! I’ll have to talk to my parents later and see what it looks like there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Well, I didn't get my foot of snow for Mooresville, lol. So close to keeping the sleet at bay. Oh well. 4-5 inches of snow/sleet on the ground in early December is great. We've got a long winter on tap it seems. Let's do this again with the same synoptic setup in about a month. Game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, JoshWeather said: It nailed it for me whereas alot of other models were throwing out a couple inches here. Nam was about the only one saying nothing...which is what i got. Still seems to be the best one to depict the warm nose It sucks out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyleEverett Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Nearly every model but the NAM was too cold for Charlotte and York County to the south. I'm down around exit 77 area and while sleet has mixed in, there's been 0 accumulation of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 36 minutes ago, KyleEverett said: Nearly every model but the NAM was too cold for Charlotte and York County to the south. I'm down around exit 77 area and while sleet has mixed in, there's been 0 accumulation of anything. Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing. For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing... As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation. If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, superjames1992 said: I think it seems to have done a decent job still, though? It still generally showed a good storm for GSO, but it seems to have nailed CLT’s sleet/ZR fest. At least the warm nose isn’t over performing this time. Seems like Durham is really doing better than expected, too. Anyways, looks like 10”+ there, which would have been my biggest storm since 2002. Quite possibly 12”+, which would have been the biggest storm I’ve ever experienced. Finally, a storm where the crazy QPF forecasts actually happen! I’ll have to talk to my parents later and see what it looks like there. Yeah I thought the NAM done great. RDU coming out pretty good! Congrats Brick and others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain. The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region. So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I can tell you the Fv3GFS absolutely nailed the thermal profile here for our storm and we wound up with 1.25 inches of sleet. If you had simply went by the TT kuchera snowmap for my location it was showing 6 inches of snow right up to the event start time. The map/algorithm just can't accurately describe ground truth and it was just wrong, but all of the measurable air data on the fv3 was accurate, and I got what I expected from the strom based off the fv3 data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looking at models it looks like the upstate will miss out on any snow from the upper level low tonight, except possible extreme eastern or southeastern upstate. Some even showing it to our south all the way to the Midlands. While I won't begrudge the Midlands any snow, it would have been nice for some NEGA /western upstaters to get in on that since the warm nose from Hades visited us last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Guys my precip totals look like there going down! Grit , what’s it looking like for me, a little concerned up here???- Big Frosty 14” guys , barely pulled that one out!- Big Frosty Every winter storm! SMDH your like the DC of NC! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 How am I supposed to go to work tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, lilj4425 said: How am I supposed to go to work tomorrow? Yeah , it’s going to be treacherous with all that upper level low that will hammer us tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah , it’s going to be treacherous with all that upper level low that will hammer us tonight! Yeah. I can’t wait for some cold rain. Just what we need...more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I'm just glad the power stayed on, I know a few folks not too far from me, they're in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Uber the winter storm warning until Tuesday!? Guess they issue those for rain now!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Uber the winter storm warning until Tuesday!? Guess they issue those for rain now!? WHAT IF SOMEONE HYDROPLANES! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 hours ago, burrel2 said: Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing. For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing... As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation. If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm. Good post. I have No idea why anyone even looks at snow accumulation maps unless temps start below freezing and you know for sure everything will stick. 5 hours ago, burrel2 said: To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain. The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region. So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps). Over ne ga, the hrrr showed too much sleet. It showed gainesvlle getting 6 hours of it but in reality they only got a little bit during the heavier rates. And it showed sleet making down to here and unless there was a little in the heavier showers, i never saw any. It was pretty obvious it was in error as it showed the max temp above ground getting to near 40 at the time it was showing it and the warm layer was deep. The fv3 over did the snow a bit a little bit but otherwise did an ok job as snow got down to cornelia and surrounding areas for an hour or two. Nam on the other hand failed to show it. Nam was too warm yesterday but in the end was about right as far as the lowest temps went. FV3 was actually a degree or two TOO cold. 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: Yeah. I can’t wait for some cold rain. Just what we need...more rain. lol...What makes it worse is the best chance is further to the south AND the rich will get richer as those who got a lot today will get even more. So that means there could be a zone that has been exceptionally screwed and tortured where they watched areas to the north get snow last night/this morning and then watch areas to the south get some tonight/tomorrow morning. In my case, I fear i'm going to be in a situation where it's snowing a couple of counties over while it's dry here. I'd be happy just seeing a little bit falling through the air but will be lucky to even get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Merry Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Merry Christmas! Too early for a thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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