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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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Good news and bad news on the EPS....

Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while.  

Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table. 

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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Good news and bad news on the EPS....

Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while.  

Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table. 

Pack- is it really that bad?  Inevitably there will be a positive surprise sometime down the road. 

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Good news and bad news on the EPS....

Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while.  

Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table. 

I'm usually as optomistic as anyone. But you have to call a spade a spade. If we whiff at the end of next week and I see no reason why we wont, then it's gonna be tough with the February outlooks I've been reading. Bottom line is by next weekend we will be 5 weeks down and 7 to go. Never been shutout and definetly to early to make that call, but if we can score one event this year it's a win in my book. Was hoping wed score the first half of winter.

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18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Good news and bad news on the EPS....

Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while.  

Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table. 

The -AO/-NAO looks like it's got staying power, but the lack of a +PNA is killer as the trough stays in the west the whole run and the SE ridge still hangs around.  Looks like we're still cool at 240 but not cold. It's amazing we complain for a -NAO then we get it....then we find another way to lose.  It's -NAO, but not west based, so I guess that doesn't count....

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21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I'm usually as optomistic as anyone. But you have to call a spade a spade. If we whiff at the end of next week and I see no reason why we wont, then it's gonna be tough with the February outlooks I've been reading. Bottom line is by next weekend we will be 5 weeks down and 7 to go. Never been shutout and definetly to early to make that call, but if we can score one event this year it's a win in my book. Was hoping wed score the first half of winter.

I'd still be fairly confident that Greensboro won't whiff, though.  That seems to be exceedingly rare, historically.  Of course, a 1-incher might be all that keeps it from being a total skunked, but I'd lean towards something before winter is done, still.

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1 hour ago, debeaches said:

Pack- is it really that bad?  Inevitably there will be a positive surprise sometime down the road. 

Actually the day 6 and 7 h5 was fairly nice looking and was thinking it would at least be as good as the 0z but then the Atlantic block retreats quicker day 7-8 and that was that.  Still looks like it's burying more energy in the sw though.  

Just thinking that climo favors TN up to NE with such a strong - PNA. 

IMG_3769.PNG

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JB is convinced that just because the EPO is so strongly negative that with AO/NAO looking to go solidly negative is enough to kick the trough east after next week.  60/62 has had a lot of similarities to what we are seeing, but trough for the most part stayed in the west that Jan and we battled a SER.

Both of these winters were weak Nina and wQBO.  

IMG_3771.PNG

IMG_3773.PNG

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Personally think this will end up being an Apps runner, maybe transfer over NoVA.  The stronger energy holding back with deep west coast trough....doesn't equal winter storm for us.   Weaker wave with stronger Atlantic blocking gave us a chance...it's trending away from that.... Nina climo...last Jan was Nino climo with SE and east coast event.  

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9 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Pack - is this what we're seeing then? If so, please wake me up next November - Or am I missing a portion of your post?

 

cd174.64.77.18.364.15.16.55.prcp.png

cd174.64.77.18.364.15.16.21.prcp.png

Yep...would be my guess.  I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE.   I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving.   If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960.  If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. 

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14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...would be my guess.  I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE.   I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving.   If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960.  If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. 

Thought the Nina was pretty much dead?

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