packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Crud...kids get out 2 hours early for snow. They were crushed last year after the Jan debacle and now have to explain there won't be any snow...they can go play in the leaf pile I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 hrrr has shifted precip east each of the past 4 runs, very similar to the new nam. uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I hate the NAM even more now. Never Trust the NAM unless it is showing a warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: hrrr has shifted precip east each of the past 4 runs, very similar to the new nam. uh oh... Well the NAM's are going to really tick east. The southern h5 low initialized much weaker then previous run and more positively tilted. The 3km will whiff PGV. What a terrible bust for this will be for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM'd again... Same ole' **it, different day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opethlike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Been following storms by reading posts here for years now and rarely ever post, but holy crap people not everyone lives in freaking Raleigh or Wake county. Constantly complaining about every frame of a model prediction regaurding what it’s doing at your house in the main storm thread is annoying as hell... isn’t that what this thread is for?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raleigh was a great place to grow up and its been a wonderful place to raise my kids, but seriously, eff this town. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 CR what time are you planning on reviving the "what did we learn" thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: CR what time are you planning on reviving the "what did we learn" thread? Probably could do it any time now. But let's wait till this evening, just to be safe. Apparently, we have not learned very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Probably could do it any time now. But let's wait till this evening, just to be safe. Apparently, we have not learned very much. We are all snow weenies at heart. Just part of our nature. Good Luck today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: We are all snow weenies at heart. Just part of our nature. Good Luck today/tonight. Thanks man. It's sad rooting for an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Thanks man. It's sad rooting for an inch of snow. It really is. Maybe a surprise 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rule #1: NAM's are only good for detecting warm noses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, opethlike said: Been following storms by reading posts here for years now and rarely ever post, but holy crap people not everyone lives in freaking Raleigh or Wake county. Constantly complaining about every frame of a model prediction regaurding what it’s doing at your house in the main storm thread is annoying as hell... isn’t that what this thread is for?? You just don't know our pain of watching snow in Raleigh! This is the last 6 major events in our area, they all have in common that they go JUST north/west or south/east of RDU. It gets frustrating seeing them so close but never hit. You have to go back to 2010 for a good hit at RDU. However, that being said, looking back, we have gotten SOMETHING almost every year. Its usually 1-1.5 inches, but we are lucky to get something every year. It just gets frustrating after a while to watch everywhere around us get the big totals as we constantly miss/fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow deflector shields activated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, uncjibble said: You just don't know our pain of watching snow in Raleigh! This is the last 6 major events in our area, they all have in common that they go JUST north/west or south/east of RDU. It gets frustrating seeing them so close but never hit. You have to go back to 2010 for a good hit at RDU. However, that being said, looking back, we have gotten SOMETHING almost every year. Its usually 1-1.5 inches, but we are lucky to get something every year. It just gets frustrating after a while to watch everywhere around us get the big totals as we constantly miss/fringe. Thank you thank you thank you for posting those images. I really wanted to see them lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I couldn't find one for this past December event, but that was also a big ole whiff for RDU too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quote Jonathan Wall tweeted about 30 mins ago that the latest 3k Nam everyone is falling apart about its wrong if you want to go check it out. I saw that the quiet Eric Webb retweeted it. Hug the big dog outlier until it falls in line with the rest of the models. Then when that model comes into line with everything else, its "falling apart". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, uncjibble said: I couldn't find one for this past December event, but that was also a big ole whiff for RDU too! Correct. I completely understand it has to be annoying to see all the complaining and "Oh woe is me" posts from RDU people, especially for those that live in areas that are rarely in the game. Unfortunately (I guess), it's a high population area and there will be more of us than not. Also, it's not so much that we don't get anything as it is that we get so little when shown to get so much. RDU is usually in a good range in early stage forecasts to get decent winter weather events, but either the storm track changes, or there's some crazy unforeseen issue that spoils the fun at the last second (i.e. warm nose last Jan/this Dec, dry slotting today and tomorrow). Another thing is, yes, it's amazing watching those who do live in those "rarely in the game" areas get their big snows. It's awesome that more people get in on the fun! But you have to understand that it's gonna sting a little when we should live in a decent area and constantly get disappointed. First world problems, and things could certainly be worse than they are, but there's not malicious intent or resentment, just frustration at how things always seem to turn out. That's what happens with southern snow! We just recently have seemed to get the short end of the stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gonna be hilarious when I get more snow than Pack!! Radar says it's possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Correct. I completely understand it has to be annoying to see all the complaining and "Oh woe is me" posts from RDU people, especially those that live in areas that are rarely in the game. Unfortunately (I guess), it's a high population area and there will be more of us that not. Also, it's not so much that we don't get anything as it is that we get so little when shown to get so much. RDU is usually in a good range in early stage forecasts to get decent winter weather events, but either the storm track changes, or there's some crazy unforeseen issue that spoils the fun at the last second (i.e. warm nose last Jan/this Dec, dry slotting today and tomorrow). Another thing is, yes, it's amazing watching those who do live in those "rarely in the game" areas get their big snows. It's awesome that more people get in on the fun! But you have to understand that it's gonna sting a little when we should live in a decent area and constantly get disappointed. First world problems, and things could certainly be worse than they are, but there's not malicious intent or resentment, just frustration at how things always seem to turn out. That's what happens with southern snow! We just recently have seemed to get the short end of the stick. Yes, this exactly! And honestly, I also went back and looked at my facebook pictures, and we have gotten enough snow for sledding/ outdoor fun at least once every year. Even if it is 1-2 inches, and never the big one, I am happy we get something on a regular basis. I'm hoping we can somehow still get our annual 1.5 inches out of this one. For once, being in SE Wake county might be an advantage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, uncjibble said: Yes, this exactly! And honestly, I also went back and looked at my facebook pictures, and we have gotten enough snow for sledding/ outdoor fun at least once every year. Even if it is 1-2 inches, and never the big one, I am happy we get something on a regular basis. I'm hoping we can somehow still get our annual 1.5 inches out of this one. For once, being in SE Wake county might be an advantage! Absolutely. Enough to pick up off the ground is fine by me, one of these days we'll hopefully run into something more! Good look to you from North Raleigh to SE Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quote Warm nose, ice, sleet, DILLY DILLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 32 minutes ago, uncjibble said: You just don't know our pain of watching snow in Raleigh! This is the last 6 major events in our area, they all have in common that they go JUST north/west or south/east of RDU. It gets frustrating seeing them so close but never hit. You have to go back to 2010 for a good hit at RDU. However, that being said, looking back, we have gotten SOMETHING almost every year. Its usually 1-1.5 inches, but we are lucky to get something every year. It just gets frustrating after a while to watch everywhere around us get the big totals as we constantly miss/fringe. You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Just noticed 12km shafts PGV. I felt real good yesterday for 4 to 8 but being 5 miles west of pgv I now have that feeling I've said so many times. The feeling of a good solid storm evaporating at the last minute. I can only sit back and watch what happens now. The whole time I hear how dominate the hi res models are and yet in the end they trended to the anemic totals the globals had ran for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well. We truly are the Cleveland Browns of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Gonna be hilarious when I get more snow than Pack!! Radar says it's possible! Like I said...somehow, GSP to CLT to GSO to DCA will get more snow then RDU. Always does. And of course SAV and CHS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 hrrr gives rdu ZERO precip. good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: hrrr gives rdu ZERO precip. good lord. Honestly, you just have to laugh at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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