WarmNose Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Man this winter rocks! You can’t even question the Madokie Niño in the main thread without someone getting bent out of shape! There’s so much to track it’s insane. Literally haven’t slept in weeks. You can tilt your head sideways and look at 500mb maps all you want but it won’t change the fact that this winter IS and CONTINUES TO BE an epic bust. Congratulations everyone. Well done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Man this winter rocks! You can’t even question the Madokie Niño in the main thread without someone getting bent out of shape! There’s so much to track it’s insane. Literally haven’t slept in weeks. You can tilt your head sideways and look at 500mb maps all you want but it won’t change the fact that this winter IS and CONTINUES TO BE an epic bust. Congratulations everyone. Well done Yea buddy dont clutter up the long term thread when were in frontal passage storm mode...smdh I'm with ya on the sudoku nino or whatever it is...supposed to be great and heading to some awesome phase...ain't happening. Were about to go zonal in freaking February and the epic cold ain't even making it down here now. I'm not forecast to go below 20 now. Big frigging deal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yea buddy dont clutter up the long term thread when were in frontal passage storm mode...smdh I'm with ya on the sudoku nino or whatever it is...supposed to be great and heading to some awesome phase...ain't happening. Were about to go zonal in freaking February and the epic cold ain't even making it down here now. I'm not forecast to go below 20 now. Big frigging dealI learned back in the early 00’s to never trust long term thoughts. Not that it never works out, but no reason to get any hopes up round here till the storm is over and you can measure it . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: It's been a very rough stretch from Atlanta up to Charlotte. And even worse for Athens to Columbia. Hell this whole decade has been shit for the most part except for 10-11 and 13-14 for those areas. I've come to expect it in this day and age. Sad times for snow lovers. Yup... Basically. I mean Atlanta did have that big snow 2 Decembers ago, but that was technically NW of the city. I know my home town of Woodstock got clobbered. Normally Athens scores better than Columbia. I feel for you guys down there. I loved the winters of 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. Those were great winters for many of us. Too bad winters like that are merely becoming pipe dreams now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAO is the cause for epic shit patterns lately. Sure it can snow without it. Hell it's had to for a decade now. 09-10 and the front half of 10-11 had great blocking. Looking back it's obvious you need the NAO to score big snow and sustained cold here. The late 70s is another example. Sure a NAO can cause a storm to amplify and pull north. 09-10 had many near misses to the north. A good Pac is more important to get the cold yes, but the NAO is cherry on top and helps it not be such a thread the needle event. I find it hard to believe Greenland is melting when theres always a massive ****ing blue ball of low heights parked over it all damn winter every year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Well here's two more: Mondays system we get nothing due to drying from downsloping winds. Wednesday we'll see a couple tenths of QPF but the mountains will delay the cold so it will be all rain. I'm sure the final shot, next Fri/Sat we'll be too far north, or we'll get the perfect track with no cold or... I've given up on next weekend at this point. It's still a threat I guess but I'm tired of wasting energy to end up failing. The cold air looks to be on afterburners out of here next weekend so the threat has decreased significantly imo. I'm ready for spring now. I'm very disappointed in this winter, but hell that's normal 9 of 10 winters anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Learned a lot here this past few weeks and I appreciate it! 90% are weenies, 2% are in the know, 6% have no clue and just mirror others post, the last 2% just have common sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 hours ago, RT1980 said: Learned a lot here this past few weeks and I appreciate it! 90% are weenies, 2% are in the know, 6% have no clue and just mirror others post, the last 2% just have common sense! A lot of the big mets were betting on a big pattern change too. It's not just the weenies. The MJO collapsed along with El Nino and the SSW failed to propagate downward much. A bunch of maybes turned into nos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 If you are a weather forecaster in the se and want to be accurate, all you have to do is forecast above average temps and below average snow and you'll be right 9 out of 10 years. And you'd look like a genius without ever even doing any research at all because no matter how much appears to be in our favor the se will always find a way to be warm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Found elsewhere. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Found elsewhere. FYP... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 What happened to the cold air next weekend? I'm not forecast to get below freezing even at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: What happened to the cold air next weekend? I'm not forecast to get below freezing even at night. Start of the big warmup. Gonna get rainy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m surprised there aren’t more Carolina peeps on this page. It’s not that often that it snows that far south in Mississippi, only to leave us high and dry. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 fun times underway, the actual storm is in view and can be watched as it moves towards the SE.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ryan1234 said: I’m surprised there aren’t more Carolina peeps on this page. It’s not that often that it snows that far south in Mississippi, only to leave us high and dry. . It is this day and age. Always happens every year now. This is the hardest place in the se to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, BillT said: fun times underway, the actual storm is in view and can be watched as it moves towards the SE.......... Speak for yourself. I don't enjoy watching rain headed my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It is this day and age. Always happens every year now. This is the hardest place in the se to snow.I mean technically we should be receiving double if not, triple of what Atlanta sees. So it’s odd. But I can’t argue with you, because I’m beginning to think you’re right. A lot of you got a good snow in December. I got maybe a dusting and a little bit of ice. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Speak for yourself. I don't enjoy watching rain headed my way. i only get to post for myself never claimed to be speaking for anybody else......and i do enjoy watching the storm as it begins and evolves....the outcome for my back yard is irrelevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 57 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I’m surprised there aren’t more Carolina peeps on this page. It’s not that often that it snows that far south in Mississippi, only to leave us high and dry. . Honestly, with the semi-permenant southeast ridge and totally absent wintertime -NAO over the past decade, it seems to be becoming the norm. Frustrating as heck, but unless and we can get some larger patterns to realign in our favor this will continue. I'm afraid this is the new normal. With the mountains already making it difficult, much of SC may see less snow than Mobile and FL panhandle going forward. If CAE can't sneak something out in Feb, they'll be looking at a six year drought by the time next winter rolls around. Even GSP has seen only two accumulating snows in Feb and March COMBINED since 2015, and they were .4 and .5 inches. Snow in SC is quickly becoming a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I mean technically we should be receiving double if not, triple of what Atlanta sees. So it’s odd. But I can’t argue with you, because I’m beginning to think you’re right. A lot of you got a good snow in December. I got maybe a dusting and a little bit of ice. . The failure of the Nino to develop and the tropical forcing (MJO) mostly focused in the warm phases doomed the forecasts. Had that not been the case would it have been different? Maybe, maybe not. I'm convinced the NAO is the problem here and I'll argue anyone who wants to argue that. And I'm not sure if the Nino and MJO had cooperated that it would have made a difference. History doesn't lie. Late 70's, 95-96, 02-03, 09-10 all big blocking winters and all colder and snowier than average. Sure, it snows without it, and can snow big. It may not cause bigger storms necessarily but it keeps cold highs in place, slows storm track and keeps storms south somewhat. Give me that anyday and I'd roll the dice over this fast, progressive, timing systems up with the high pressure over the ne rocketing out to sea pattern of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Been hearing from friends on Facebook that they are salting roads in Alabama? Everyone I talk to has no idea about any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Tuesday snow chances are dwindling for central NC. And then a mild start to February. Only model still showing cold February is the CFS. See y'all next winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I really like Chris Justus, but his facebook says "coldest air in several years" coming after the front, then the wyff outlook shows highs in mid 40s, lows in 20s. Not only did he forget about last Jan, but that's not even the coldest of this wimpy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I really like Chris Justus, but his facebook says "coldest air in several years" coming after the front, then the wyff outlook shows highs in mid 40s, lows in 20s. Not only did he forget about last Jan, but that's not even the coldest of this wimpy winter. It is funny, though, how a massive outbreak has now turned into basically a day of seasonably cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 last week the models were showing highs in the teens and lows of 0 for piedmont areas. This winter stinks. When the mojo started back in the bad phases and the -nao vanished as always, the whole outlook has been ruined to atleast Feb 15th and then we have lousy sun angle problems. I hate march snow and hot pavement. It all liquifies fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If you’re looking for a -NAO, don’t worry. It’s coming... in April and will last through October only to magically go positive again just in time for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Our biggest snows come in March! We got about 4 weeks to get rid of the Flaming February and rock into Marvelous March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scwxguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Spring is getting underway in the Charleston area. Lots of trees budding and flowering out in Azalea Park in Summerville this past weekend. Had a new bloom this morning out in the backyard as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our biggest snows come in March! We got about 4 weeks to get rid of the Flaming February and rock into Marvelous March Don't you forget about Amazing April and Splendid Spring. April snows will save winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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