Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Officially at the acceptance stage. Good luck to all. It’ll come. One of these days it’ll come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Has anyone ever tried to devise an official Snow Disappointment Index? It seems like it could be done. Maybe take the fantasy snow lost divided by the annual average snowfall. You'd divide by annual average, because heavy snow regions would otherwise dominate based on high potential variability. In a stormy region, you could end up with 30" of fantasy snow, only to see 5" fall, for a loss of 25". But after a winter of several feet of snowfall, you're not really disappointed. In Raleigh, you could get your entire season's average to show up as fantasy snow 24 hours ahead of the event, only to get a trace. How you define fantasy snow might be tricky, but we could agree on some metric. Maybe an average of the Euro, GFS, and a short range model like the NAM, at some specific point in time before the event. ETA: it should be net fantasy snow lost. If you overperform, that comes off your totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well. It just got more and more depressing so I stopped at 6! I did find this one though, proof that we can get big snow in Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said: Has anyone ever tried to devise an official Snow Disappointment Index? It seems like it could be done. Maybe take the fantasy snow lost divided by the annual average snowfall. You'd divide by annual average, because heavy snow regions would otherwise dominate based on high potential variability. In a stormy region, you could end up with 30" of fantasy snow, only to see 5" fall, for a loss of 25". But after a winter of several feet of snowfall, you're not really disappointed. In Raleigh, you could get your entire season's average to show up as fantasy snow 24 hours ahead of the event, only to get a trace. How you define fantasy snow might be tricky, but we could agree on some metric. Maybe an average of the Euro, GFS, and a short range model like the NAM, at some specific point in time before the event. We could start a Fantasy snowfall league. At the beginning of winter we have a draft of SE cities, each team has to start a city in each state, most snow wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 41 minutes ago, uncjibble said: It just got more and more depressing so I stopped at 6! I did find this one though, proof that we can get big snow in Raleigh! You guys did really well in January 2009, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I am ready for my virga blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 And playing in the frost with frost ball fights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Tar Heel Snow said: We truly are the Cleveland Browns of winter. As a Jets fan, this one feels more like the Jets. 1 - The low placement is the equivalent of the 2015-16 season. "Teams that go 10-6 make the playoffs" = "a low off the outer banks is textbook for major snow in central NC" 2 - Like Jets fans, our snow lovers are generally negative and bitter by experience 3 - We expected nothing of this snow season (football season), saw it flurry for about 15 seconds twice and have to listen to "it's so much better than you expected though!" all season long 4 - Most importantly - laughably pathetic But...much like with the Jets fans with their team next fall we'll all line up for our punishment again next season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, uncjibble said: It just got more and more depressing so I stopped at 6! I did find this one though, proof that we can get big snow in Raleigh! Jackpot was 30 miles...this one sucked too. We won’t be happy until it snows only in Wake County and it rains or dry slots everywhere else. And it has to do that like 17 times to even things up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I can smell the virga....only a matter of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raleigh can't even do virga right. It's almost made a complete circle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m about to quit the weather. I have a client on the battery that already has 2 inches and now the euro gives them another 6. We haven’t gotten that in years at gsp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: Raleigh can't even do virga right. It's almost made a complete circle. C L A S S I C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: I’m about to quit the weather. I have a client on the battery that already has 2 inches and now the euro gives them another 6. We haven’t gotten that in years at gsp. LOL...well this is like a 1 in 100 year event for them, bet it's great down there. Hopefully we get 6" event before there next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Raleigh can't even do virga right. It's almost made a complete circle. Use the composite reflectivivity. There is plenty of virga over your head right now. Weatherbug has the whole eastern 2/3 of the state snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 33 minutes ago, packbacker said: I can smell the virga....only a matter of time. Last run of the HRRR has CR getting his 17 snow flakes while you and I watch from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: Last run of the HRRR has CR getting his 17 snow flakes while you and I watch from afar. My 9" call from last night might turn out to be a tad lofty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 we need to remember for future storms that the nw trend only happens if it screws you with temps. otherwise you can bank on being dry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: My 9" call from last night might turn out to be a tad lofty. nah...let it play out I think it's golden. Party at your place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: we need to remember for future storms that the nw trend only happens if it screws you with temps. otherwise you can bank on being dry. lol trends only happen if they work against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So how about all those storms over the years that were supposed to jackpot the Triad and Triangle and miss SW VA only to have Roanoke jackpot every single time? Why can't that happen when I'm supposed to be too far NW? Just once? Jokes aside I'm pretty glad that I don't have to sweat this one out. Looks extra stressful even by NC winter storm standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: nah...let it play out I think it's golden. Party at your place. Alright. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lol at the 12km NAM with the mobile snow bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I love circular virga events around Wake Co. I anticipate this to build more and more so it looks like a donut 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: I love circular virga events around Wake Co. I anticipate this to build more and more so it looks like a donut How is it physically possible for this to happen lol. I know we're only at the very beginning of this event, but like, this has to be deliberate, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: How is it physically possible for this to happen lol. I know we're only at the very beginning of this event, but like, this has to be deliberate, right? Beam height. It's not snowing anywhere near the surface to your west. The 0.5° scan is 3000 feet above the surface in Sanford, which is the closest location to the radar site that's actually showing a return. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: How is it physically possible for this to happen lol. I know we're only at the very beginning of this event, but like, this has to be deliberate, right? Yep...every time. The band to our SW will die out before it shifts over us, the band to our east should hit a brick wall as it gets just passed I95. This is shaping up to be a classic Raleigh snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yuck. I love living in Raleigh but this is just damn pathetic on so many levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The weather gods are crying with laughter. EDIT: this is an improvement over the last run, but jeez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: The weather gods are crying with laughter. EDIT: this is an improvement over the last run, but jeez. Can't make it up. Hysterically this run drops more snow in Guilford County than Wake county. Only in America ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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