buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Too bad we can't work out a trade. Indeed Approx 1.4" of wet, splattering sloppy rain is my best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Only thing going for me is a 4x4 and a full tank of gas. I know a place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 FYI...this was the meteo from the Euro last night for Raleigh...not even close to rain. I could expect at 12z to see some "MIX" instead of "SNOW" in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I prefer a cold to mild rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Interesting... PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR N FL/GA SAT MOVING TOWARD SE NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH STRONGER AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO CONSENSUS. THE SPREAD REMAINS, GENERALLY, IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE ITSELF. THE 00Z ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE ECENS MEAN KEEP WITH CONTINUITY OF THE LAST DAY OR SO OF SLOWER SOLUTIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE SUITE WHICH GENERALLY IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE TIMING REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE MODELS WITHIN THE SPREAD SEEMS TRADITIONAL OF A PATTERN THAT IS BECOMING BETTER HANDLED OVERALL. AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR SECTION...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS IN WEIGHTING. CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY INCREASING BUT REMAINS NEAR AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That sounds better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That sounds better. Really think this Euro run will be close to what verifies, don't think it shifts huge inside 36....I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 SOOOO what does everyone have planned this rainy weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Get ready for a terrible Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS PARA looked like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burgertime said: GFS PARA looked like the NAM Hey Burger how goes it. Glad I cashed out a couple of days ago with my 18.5 inches of fantasy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burgertime said: GFS PARA looked like the NAM which run? 00z last night looked good and i dont see 06z out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro already stronger through 12 with sw low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, packbacker said: Really think this Euro run will be close to what verifies, don't think it shifts huge inside 36....I hope! Already off to a bad start! Euro putting the final dagger in weenie hearts, across the Carolinas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Stronger, weaker, tighter, looser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Stronger, weaker, tighter, looser! Didn't dig as far sw though...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Stronger, weaker, tighter, looser! Common theme, slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: Common theme, slightly warmer. If slightly means -5 instead of -6, then that's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Whew. temps look fine for us, i can breathe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro is way drier than the GFS here, not quite as dry as the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Euro is way drier than the GFS here, not quite as dry as the canadian. Maybe the Euro does better with temp and tracks but vastly underestimates QPF, especially to the west. That's the story in the Sanitarium anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Does Carollton guy know that almost every post he makes gets deleted? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wasn't really main thread worthy, but there are some light returns showing up in the Triad; wonder if anyone sees flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Thrasher Fan said: Does Carollton guy know that almost every post he makes gets deleted? lol Yes....and he's been warned....his next one will have him sitting in time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, chapelhillwx said: Wasn't really main thread worthy, but there are some light returns showing up in the Triad; wonder if anyone sees flurries. I am glued to the window. Nothing yet. Temps 37-38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Maybe the Euro does better with temp and tracks but vastly underestimates QPF, especially to the west. That's the story in the Sanitarium anyway. Qpf max shifted a hair east that run. Don't know what to think except the NAM's are terrible. Blend of the GFS works for us and the GEFS were unreal. Let's hope 0z holds LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Qpf max shifted a hair east that run. Don't know what to think except the NAM's are terrible. Blend of the GFS works for us and the GEFS were unreal. Let's hope 0z holds LOL blend of the ukie and GFS is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Screw snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: blend of the ukie and GFS is fine with me. So you have GFS/UK vs CMC/Euro. Euro was quicker because of no stream separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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