FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: WPC laughing at anyone even remotely thinking the GFS has a shot...lolz As they should at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: As they should at this point. At least we have the scoreboard in our favor! So far with 2 potential southeast wintry events in December: GFS 2 EURO 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Well, it can only go downhill from here after that 12z GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Well, it can only go downhill from here after that 12z GFS run... Welcome to North Fla! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 NAM looks good thru 3hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: NAM looks good thru 3hr Only useful out to 1hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Disc said: Only useful out to 1hr. Ain't it the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Welcome to North Fla! MBY gets blanked in all scenarios, at least, LOL. I'm in San Juan right now, anyways. It's currently 81 with a wonderful sea breeze. If the 12z GFS miracle somehow verified, I might blow a gasket, though. GSO got 30" on that run. Did I move away one year too early??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Did I move away one year too early??? Maybe, but I've seen a couple surprises around Tallawhacky! Weather wise (among others). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I sort of wish I could go to sleep and wake up Thursday. The not knowing what to expect is exciting but stressful. I keep having to prepare myself for a complete failure of a storm (i.e. no frozen precipitation whatsoever). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The weenies are out in full force today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Has there ever been a discussion as to why the GFS is so widely available to the public while the Euro isnt? Seems to me if the Euro model was equally accessible a better balance could be made for the uneducated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 How far out did the models pick up the 93 superstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I wonder who this guy is talking about. Can't be anyone in this thread. StormScapeLIVE.TV 37 mins · Southern weather weenies continue to post maps of the GFS showing a big snow and ice storm for Dixie. It's funny though, I have yet to see them post or even talk much about the ECMWF (sometimes mistakenly called the Euro). Why is that? It's because the ECMWF has been consistently dry and cold for the South. Boring! Nobody wants to see that! LOL However, wishcasters hate it that statistics show the ECMWF is a more accurate medium range model than the GFS. So, my friends, we continue to have a bit of a pickle when it comes to snow and Ice chances across MS, AL, GA, TN, NC and SC this Friday and Saturday. This is nearly an impossible pattern to forecast more than three days out. The shortwaves in the northern and southern stream are moving very fast. The ones that the GFS shows phasing somewhat and bringing a storm aren't even being sampled yet with actual real instruments. At this point it is all guesswork on the part of the forecast models, and humans. No one knows. Like I said yesterday, I will not even think about honking about a winter storm or calling it dead until Wednesday at the earliest and probably not even until Thursday. At this point what you need to know is there is a chance of anything from sunny, dry and cold weather Friday and Saturday, to major snow and ice. Just remain weather-aware and keep up on the latest, especially after about Wednesday when we will have a better handle on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We have a lot things and folks against us right now: Euro, mets, MA forum, climo, range (still far out), and luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: I wonder who this guy is talking about. Can't be anyone in this thread. StormScapeLIVE.TV Nah not anyone here! We are non biased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We have a lot things and folks against us right now: Euro, mets, MA forum, climo, range (still far out), and luck. Lol that's a daunting list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol that's a daunting list! But it's fun when we score a coup, every once in a blue moon!! With that many odds against us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, jburns said: I wonder who this guy is talking about. Can't be anyone in this thread. StormScapeLIVE.TV 37 mins · Southern weather weenies continue to post maps of the GFS showing a big snow and ice storm for Dixie. It's funny though, I have yet to see them post or even talk much about the ECMWF (sometimes mistakenly called the Euro). Why is that? It's because the ECMWF has been consistently dry and cold for the South. Boring! Nobody wants to see that! LOL However, wishcasters hate it that statistics show the ECMWF is a more accurate medium range model than the GFS. So, my friends, we continue to have a bit of a pickle when it comes to snow and Ice chances across MS, AL, GA, TN, NC and SC this Friday and Saturday. This is nearly an impossible pattern to forecast more than three days out. The shortwaves in the northern and southern stream are moving very fast. The ones that the GFS shows phasing somewhat and bringing a storm aren't even being sampled yet with actual real instruments. At this point it is all guesswork on the part of the forecast models, and humans. No one knows. Like I said yesterday, I will not even think about honking about a winter storm or calling it dead until Wednesday at the earliest and probably not even until Thursday. At this point what you need to know is there is a chance of anything from sunny, dry and cold weather Friday and Saturday, to major snow and ice. Just remain weather-aware and keep up on the latest, especially after about Wednesday when we will have a better handle on the situation. LOL....I noticed that more and more about social media "mets" it's taboo to discuss model runs or upcoming cold or warmth or really anything that would seem contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We got this to look forward to....looks slightly cool after this miss this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We have a lot things and folks against us right now: Euro, mets, MA forum, climo, range (still far out), and luck. Extremely upsetting that we don't have the MA forum on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Extremely upsetting that we don't have the MA forum on board. It's awesome when JI trolls us....especially when he tells us how great the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: We got this to look forward to....looks slightly cool after this miss this weekend. I think this has been modeled but with the models having such a hard time with this storm at this point in time, can we really trust hour 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Extremely upsetting that we don't have the MA forum on board. Ya... my hearts breaking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: But it's fun when we score a coup, every once in a blue moon!! With that many odds against us! True but sometimes even if a coup is scored it isn't nearly enough to live up to the hype. As evidence, I offer this little gem from the "serious" thread. It was posted as the 12Z GFS rolled in. The poster shall remain nameless. "Complete destruction at 132-138 as low explodes off the CHS coast and rides north northeast. WOW!" Now correct me if I am wrong but wouldn't this mean that if there is a single building or piece of infrastructure remaining it is a bust low. In other words, Armageddon or Bust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, J.C. said: How far out did the models pick up the 93 superstorm? the first mention of it i saw was on the Sunday before it hit on friday.....24 hours out the forecasts werent calling for anything special at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: I think this has been modeled but with the models having such a hard time with this storm at this point in time, can we really trust hour 240? Yeah...I think it's going to be warm day 10...all the ensembles agree on that. I think if the pattern changes it will be after the 20th. Though if the -EPO holds then we can get more cold fronts that swing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I think this has been modeled but with the models having such a hard time with this storm at this point in time, can we really trust hour 240? End of GEFS still shows nina forcing at 120E (snoozer)...but GEPS and CFS weeklies start to change that end of Jan. This is a pretty bad look when big low setup over AK....now can we pop a ridge and we get a aleutian low with pac ridge to setup after this? We shall see. If that low really does setup shop then we are in trouble and winter will be over....not saying it will but just if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yeah...I think it's going to be warm day 10...all the ensembles agree on that. I think if the pattern changes it will be after the 20th. Though if the -EPO holds then we can get more cold fronts that swing through. The ao looks to take a significant dive also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The ao looks to take a significant dive also. We can be warm with blocking and crappy pac (+EPO/-PNA)...ala 2013. To be honest, I really thought/think the PDO will flex sometime this winter, probably later in Jan into Feb. But, that's probably wishful thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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