Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I heart clown maps. Can't the dgex be right just once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It's good that we're inside truncation and we now have only a 1 in the hundreds digit as opposed to a 3. It's the step down method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Can't the dgex be right just once?For the love of Active snow Shields make it happen. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Is it to early to start talking about the warm nose that is going to crush our hopes and dreams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can't the dgex be right just once? Just once is all we ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there lol that's one way to look at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there LOL...That is crazy....but true. DGEX snowfall maps never get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: lol that's one way to look at it! Here's another way. Pretty sure all the bad winter storms have at least one DGEX crush job as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there The DGEX would be historic as it's depicted. As stated in the other thread even at hour 192 it looks to still be at it's height (at least over central/eastern NC). Now back to reality, we could still have some enhancement to whatever storm we get. Water temps off the coast are still above normal and could add to a storms development; in which the models may not calculate correctly. So the 6z GFS could still be a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: LOL...That is crazy....but true. DGEX snowfall maps never get old. Don't get get suckered back in, don't you do it...that's how they get you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Don't get get suckered back in, don't you do it...that's how they get you! LOL...well the 12z Euro/EPS was a big rainer for us and then 0z Euro/EPS was a cold/dry suppression. So yeah, hard to get to excited with that model agreement. Odds are high this 12z suite is different too. Until we get some run to run consistency it's hard to get excited about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Don't worry guys, this storm will produce its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there And the models showing suppression. Double check on these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Everyone NW of the 12z gfs complaining the sweet spot isn't in their backyard. Don't they know we always get that NW jog as we get closer? You should be cheering you're not ground zero. And yesterday afternoon we were nowhere near a winter storm, had to go up to DC to see snow. Any run that shows a storm anywhere in the southeast is a win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Everyone NW of the 12z gfs complaining the sweet spot isn't in their backyard. Don't they know we always get that NW jog as we get closer? You should be cheering you're not ground zero. Day 5-7 range is the "squash" range. I'm not saying this one will trend NW, because apparently there's going to be an impressive cold push, (and because people will say I'm wishcasting for my area--which I'm not) but usually once we hit D5 and closer, we start to see those few NW jogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS looks great. Plenty of cold and now our western wave is nearly on its own. Now it's just waiting until the GFS can get the wave vort energy phasing correct. 0z had it right, 6z shot the sheared some of the energy out, 12z less so but didn't get it the vorts phased well enough. This is normal progression of the models. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Day 5-7 range is the "squash" range. I'm not saying this one will trend NW, because apparently there's going to be an impressive cold push, (and because people will say I'm wishcasting for my area--which I'm not) but usually once we hit D5 and closer, we start to see those few NW jogs. I'm sure it will, they all do at some point. My point is once again we don't have a real consensus in the modeling. The high/low pressure locations keep changing, ridging keeps fluctuating, timing is all over the place as well as speed and moisture. Until some of these appear to be closer to an agreement in the modeling, we have to stop focusing SO much attention to where it snows and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I have a feeling that last night was the only bone the models will throw us with this event for the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Whatever happened to burgertime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 54 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have a feeling that last night was the only bone the models will throw us with this event for the next few cycles. I'm sure models will lose it, get it back and then 12 hours from gametime we will all freak out when the NAM screws everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I expect the Euro to be snow in JAX..which would be great for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, NorthGaWinter said: Whatever happened to burgertime? Amsterdam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looks like it's curtains for me. I'll stay in the Sanitarium while all you guys south of me cash in. You deserve it! I may drive down to CLT and get snowed in next weekend. NWS Blacksburg: For the latter half of the long term period, the long range models are now forecasting a more zonal pattern with elongated energy moving out of the Great Basin, instead of a more amplified uppertrof. The 12Z GFS continues this trend and now phasing of the northern and southern stream systems is not forecast. With trends and now some run to run consistency depicting this solution, continued to the trend of lowering POPS Thursday-Saturday and lowering temps as cold air pressure noses in through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 DGEX has been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm very happy with the pattern we're going into. Not worried about the amounts, just keep showing snow! Would be happy to have these Highs for Friday verify. . Still drooling over this fantasy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So sad, I don't know who's manipulating these models trying to get us to think it's going to snow in CLT, but it's just mean. I'm not falling for it though. Whatever model shows the least snow, that's the one I believe. I think I'm on the Euro right now...nice and cold...and only enough flakes to break the shutout. Just mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: So sad, I don't know who's manipulating these models trying to get us to think it's going to snow in CLT, but it's just mean. I'm not falling for it though. Whatever model shows the least snow, that's the one I believe. I think I'm on the Euro right now...nice and cold...and only enough flakes to break the shutout. Just mean. Of course, it probably won't snow. We need something to track, even if it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Deja vu... Monday night/Tuesday Convection over the Gulf Coast and Southeast States could impact the total qpf, something tough to discern this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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