FlatLander48 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Still feel this way, or are you changing your tune due to a couple of good model runs? Sorry, I had to ask... He double downed on his claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Incoming... Crowds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Incoming... Crowds crowds of cheer. We have a storm within 10 days!!!!! Not that it means anything, still gotta make sure the pattern happens and the SER stays minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Let's clear something up. Many of you wanted the negativity removed from the model threads so we started this one. It will not work if every time a model run shows a possibility of snow people from the model thread run into here to gloat and troll the folks that have been posting in this thread. I have just deleted several posts that were posted in the past several hours. I don't want to have to continue doing so. The separation is what you wanted, you've got it and I will enforce it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 The looney bin is gonna be rocking today when the 12z EURO shows a warm cutter! 6z GFS already says nope to anyone getting a storm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: The looney bin is gonna be rocking today when the 12z EURO shows a warm cutter! 6z GFS already says nope to anyone getting a storm period. Are you sure you looked at the right 6Z GFS. It clearly shows a major winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Are you sure you looked at the right 6Z GFS. It clearly shows a major winter storm... For who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: For who? Lol, is anyone over here looking at anything but the operational runs of the euro and GFS. The ensemble mean on the 00z was great and the control run had 2 inches as far south as Cumming, GA west and east. The 06z ensemble suite also had a nice mean with several panels with major winter storm for areas of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Eastatlwx said: Lol, is anyone over here looking at anything but the operational runs of the euro and GFS. The ensemble mean on the 00z was great and the control run had 2 inches as far south as Cumming, GA west and east. The 06z ensemble suite also had a nice mean with several panels with major winter storm for areas of the southeast. You're forgetting what this thread is for. I'm being somewhat sarcastic...But between the northern trend in the EURO and the no-storm-period trend in the GFS, it's time to get nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It would be wonderful to have every model run show a great winter storm. As other have said, at this time range all you want is a storm signal. Even if this storm does (or doesn't) occur, can you imagine how many more model solutions will present themselves in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: For who? Not you, that's why your in the sanitarium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 e3 would make this thread no longer necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, No snow for you said: e3 would make this thread no longer necessary It'll be e8 on that map that verifies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Not a very encouraging set of model runs overnight. Given the tendency of the models to overemphasize blocking and cold anomalies in the medium to LR, anyone in the SE to the east of the Apps should be a bit nervous here. Hopefully, we'll see a couple of upcoming cycles that show the robust cold push coming back and intensified blocking in the NAO region. Otherwise, this will be a marginal event for the northern/NW areas...at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not a very encouraging set of model runs overnight. Given the tendency of the models to overemphasize blocking and cold anomalies in the medium to LR, anyone in the SE to the east of the Apps should be a bit nervous here. Hopefully, we'll see a couple of upcoming cycles that show the robust cold push coming back and intensified blocking in the NAO region. Otherwise, this will be a marginal event for the northern/NW areas...at best. Agreed! NW trend should begin today , in full force! I think it was hinted at in last nights runs, GFS is supressed, but it's the GFS! I guess it'll be back to chasing pattern changes in a few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Paging big frosty! Just watched JBs video today, it was around 1:45 seconds and he actually spent about half the video talking about snow in the south and I think he even circled your house on his map!! This threat is officially toast!!!!! He NEVER mentions the south, EVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Not you, that's why your in the sanitarium! I'm in 2-4" on that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Hopefully, it won't trend too far north to dry slot us. Many areas need the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Everyone just jumped off the cliff for this storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'll take it! This will trend better for NC. I feel it in my gut. EURO will be a sweet run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: Hopefully, it won't trend too far north to dry slot us. Many areas need the rain! Good thing it's the GFS, it sucks hard! better hug the DGEX or a magical 2nd wave, the first is the appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 This storm will end up a New York City to Boston special. Good for them. Unfortunately for the rest of us it's getting late early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 temp issues showing up in fantasy land isn't a good sign of things to come, hp just not going to cut it as it is progged right now. my confidence/excitement is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 See you at the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: temp issues showing up in fantasy land isn't a good sign of things to come, hp just not going to cut it as it is progged right now. my confidence/excitement is low. It's not really a HP/CAD setup here. We need the arctic front to sag as far south as possible and have the wave run up the front to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: It's not really a HP/CAD setup here. We need the arctic front to sag as far south as possible and have the wave run up the front to our south. Problem is the arctic front is coming in all wrong from due west, not from the lakes. It just ain't cold enough. Either that or the blocking is going to need to get back on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Where's wow or John, to tell us this means nothing at this point, just one run! Cliff is getting full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, SnowNiner said: Problem is the arctic front is coming in all wrong from due west, not from the lakes. It just ain't cold enough. Either that or the blocking is going to need to get back on roids. Plenty of time to work that out. For the first time in winter ever, I'm legitimately trying to be optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Where's wow or John, to tell us this means nothing at this point, just one run! Cliff is getting full You haven't jumped yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Plenty of time to work that out. For the first time in winter ever, I'm legitimately trying to be optimistic... Why? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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