jshetley Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: I don't understand the panic. I believe we talked about this last year that the oceans were flipping and we would see a -PNA this year which would lead to a tough winter. We can see winter weather in this pattern but it makes it tougher. I believe we will see a similar pattern next winter as well before getting to a +PNA in the 18 19 winter. Btw I believe we will see the PNA move neutral to positive in late January into parts of February that will give us our best chances to see winter weather. Feb is certainly our best chance this year. The CAD areas could become very icy sometime in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, jshetley said: Feb is certainly our best chance this year. The CAD areas could become very icy sometime in Feb. Webberweather, is basically saying signs are pointing to a mild February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Here's the head doctor of the SE Sanitarium himself! I tried telling those guys in the mountain thread last week they were gonna get some NW flow but they ran me out. They are mountain folk, they don't take kindly to city slickers! Tread lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 You all need to keep it together while in the discussion thread Even the SNE crew acts better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Webberweather, is basically saying signs are pointing to a mild February Yeah I saw that on the other board. He is saying Feb would be very warm and wet just like 1990. I'd take that in a heartbeat. That month featured major flooding in parts of GA and AL and a severe weather outbreak over much of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 hours ago, packbacker said: Who do we need to sacrifice to get this pattern? If it requires a virgin I screwed up by banning Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, jburns said: If it requires a virgin I screwed up by banning Wilkes. APPLY COLD WATER TO THE BURNED AREA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Webberweather, is basically saying signs are pointing to a mild February He has the SE AN for evey month. He has as a bloodbath for Jan-Mar the plains eastward. He is very smart. Been lot of momentum by a lot of winter forecasts for a warm winter. http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, jburns said: If it requires a virgin I screwed up by banning Wilkes. We can just use NWNC2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'll have to say it's hard to get excited about future prospects with the current warm temps we're getting. Should be close to 70 at RDU tomorrow. I guess the only thing to do is enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: He has the SE AN for evey month. He has as a bloodbath for Jan-Mar the plains eastward. He is very smart. Been lot of momentum by a lot of winter forecasts for a warm winter. http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/ Hi, I'm Sean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 38 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Here's the head doctor of the SE Sanitarium himself! I tried telling those guys in the mountain thread last week they were gonna get some NW flow but they ran me out. Hey, we were nice about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We can just use NWNC2015! Um...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 here she comes boys! Saved by the Brazilian Altanta ave mid winter high 11 c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: here she comes boys! Saved by the Brazilian Altanta ave mid winter high 11 c Fab Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 We're losing the 5-8 threat, slowly, but surely! All rain through the 8th and just looks like a frontal passage, at the end of a runner!! It was fun while it lasted! Surely a 300 mile jog south, is only 6 hours away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We're losing the 5-8 threat, slowly, but surely! All rain through the 8th and just looks like a frontal passage, at the end of a runner!! It was fun while it lasted! Surely a 300 mile jog south, is only 6 hours away! Not in this lifetime. Just wait, second half of JAN is gonna be LIT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Not in this lifetime. Just wait, second half of JAN is gonna be LIT! It's only 2 GFS runs, we toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 One of the biggest -NAO's we've seen modeled in YEARS.........and it CONNECTS to the SE/Atlantic ridge to shove the torch right up our hind parts. Oh, the depressing IRONY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 God forbid that we ever have a strong Nina again.... Look what a negative-neutral one has done. Never thought I would ever see a SER so strong with neutral conditions. If this pattern ever does flip, it should be epic with all the cold that's been bottled up to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 This thread should be hot today after the latest run of the GFS. Everything stays to the west. I guess you could say both the 0z para and 6z GFS look a little interesting at day 16; but hasn't day 16 always looked interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 This thread should be hot today after the latest run of the GFS. Everything stays to the west. I guess you could say both the 0z para and 6z GFS look a little interesting at day 16; but hasn't day 16 always looked interesting.Day 10 and 11 have back to back systems for NC on the 6z. Just not cold enough. Had it been a smidge colder this forum would be off its rockers in the disco thread ready to cash in on their 12" totals Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot. Cue the cliff jumping gifs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jon said: Day 10 and 11 have back to back systems for NC on the 6z. Just not cold enough. Had it been a smidge colder this forum would be off its rockers in the disco thread ready to cash in on their 12" totals Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, that GL low seems to be the killer. Maybe that can turn in our favor in future runs. (also) The thing that can be upsetting is the day 16 of these run now takes us into mid January. We in the SE are now starting to lose prime winter storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot. Cue the cliff jumping gifs... We need the PNA to go positive. Whatever cold air we (NA) have will continue to just dump to our west. I know the EPO can do wonders but its seems a positive PNA is a primary indice for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot. Cue the cliff jumping gifs...Not surprising at all, I expect a warmup in mid Jan if we can't get sustained blocking which is hard to do. The next cold would have to be last week of Jan/early febSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jon said: Not surprising at all, I expect a warmup in mid Jan if we can't get sustained blocking which is hard to do. The next cold would have to be last week of Jan/early feb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep...transient cold shot or two in Jan. Typical blah Nina. Good news is Jan looks to be another AN month for RDU, would make it 8 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Cool, what an ugly turnaround! January torch and now punting to February!! We should be used to waiting on Fab Feb now! But in a Nina, it's supposed to be toasty and summer starting in March!! Happy New Years to the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Cool, what an ugly turnaround! January torch and now punting to February!! We should be used to waiting on Fab Feb now! But in a Nina, it's supposed to be toasty and summer starting in March!! Happy New Years to the SE!Anyone punting to feb is an idiot Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Btw - check out how much this thread is rolling! Good god this was a great idea.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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