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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2017

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Central/Western States

Number of Tornadoes in 2017  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of tornadoes

    • Less than 900
      1
    • 900-1000
      3
    • 1000-1100
      9
    • 1100-1200
      8
    • 1200-1300
      5
    • 1300-1400
      2
    • 1400-1500
      0
    • Greater than 1500
      3

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted
On 4/2/2017 at 0:53 PM, Hoosier said:

Did some research and the last time there were 2 high risk days this early in the year was 2008.

and maybe a third coming up tomorrow? 

it's been a very active start to the tornado count.....

the previous two high risk systems underachieved as far total set up potential but were warranted

 

 

torgraph-big.png

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

SPC is too trigger happy this year so far.

A lot of these higher end risk days are underachieving, some by a lot.

Should be a lock for over 1,000 tors though, and maybe even an average season given how things have started though.

One could make the case that SPC has seemingly been a bit on the aggressive side, but it's not like we've had a string of major busts. It's been an active early season. Many of the events have panned out and others have been active, but not to the degree that was expected. I think climo is a factor. Several of the MDT/HIGH risk delineations have been close to verifying, but almost everything has to go right for a major event, especially in the early season. Wednesday could have been a more substantial tornado event over a broader area if moisture quality was better. Not only was it marginal (low to mid-50s over much of the MDT tornado risk zone), but it also verified below most guidance.

I can't grill SPC too much. Even year has underperforming events and considering we've had so many events in general, it's the luck of the roll. Not every year can be like 2008/2011 where overperforming events seems to be the rule. Also, the relative dearth of higher-end events from May 2014 through the end of 2016 makes some of this year's event forecasts stand out like a sore thumb. We've had clusters of higher-end outlooks in the past and a fair share of them don't quite verify.

Speaking of 2008, we're still only second to 2008 when looking back at tornado occurrences year-to-date. It would take a record slow tornado pace for the balance of the year to not hit 1,000. An average season is a bit more of a question mark. Not all active early seasons finished above average, but what happens over the next 4-6 weeks will be critical. How long can we sustain the seemingly endless parade of trough ejections? The pattern looks to relax a bit over the next 1-2 weeks, but even within that, I'd expect we hang near average. Look for at least a couple of ENH level risks and perhaps a MDT, especially as moisture return becomes less of an issue with time. The Euro weeklies seem to suggest at least a near average pace (based strictly on the synoptic scale pattern) as we finish April and begin May. The CFS (specifically the CFS severe weather guidance dashboard) has been more inconsistent and lacks any strong severe signal, but I take that guidance with a grain of salt beyond day 10, especially when there's considerable flip-flopping.

The central Plains drought has relaxed a bit and additional rainfall events are likely from the panhandles into central/eastern Kansas through mid-April. The central High Plains is a bit more of a question mark and although it's just one of many factors, that will be something to watch for mid/late May into June across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. I don't think it will have much of an effect on severe, given the relatively small size of the drought area and its modest severity. 

At the very least, we've had one of the most active early seasons in several years. Even if not every event is panning out to the highest expectations, I have been pleasantly surprised by how many storm chases I've already had this year. Remember in recent years when some chasers complained about rarely getting out in the pre/early season anymore?

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

After a very active early season, tornado counts over the past few weeks have been well below climatology. We'll see if that changes over the next few days. Considering most years have at least one bigger late April tornado event and we have threats today, Friday and Saturday, it's certain possible. It also looks quiet for at least the first part of next week, which follows the common early May tornado lull observed most years.

0D869A54-63CB-49F9-AD50-E06E71B87C28-10039-0000076C7A4ED0F5.png.0ef3d86ff857329872bcd3a69e53cd33.png

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
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Posted

While this year is going to end up as the most active overall numbers wise since 2011 with over 1300 confirmed tornadoes by November, it is also is nearly unheard of in its dearth of tornadoes rated F/EF3 or higher.

There have only been 15 EF3+ tornadoes this year (13 EF3, 2 EF4), which, should it hold through December, is the least since 1987 (widely considered one of the least active seasons on record). As far as I can tell, this year has been unprecedented in its "quantity vs. quality" aspect. This can obviously be seen in its lack of more quality chase days in April through June. The only day I can say that was surely above average tornado wise (in terms of picturesque opportunities) for most who chased it was 6/12 in WY/NE. This is with the period at the end of April that looked impressive until 3-4 days out when it started to completely unravel (save the Canton-Eustace tornadoes that were generally a mesoscale event) notwithstanding. <_<

Many of the strongest tornadoes of the year occurred in the cold season (2/3 to be precise), which is bad in both aspects as it led to a considerable amount of fatalities (eg. 20 deaths in the Jan 20-22 event) and little in the way of better chaser opportunities come peak/late season. Add on four high risks that generally underperformed and...yeah.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, andyhb said:

While this year is going to end up as the most active overall numbers wise since 2011 with over 1300 confirmed tornadoes by November, it is also is nearly unheard of in its dearth of tornadoes rated F/EF3 or higher.

There have only been 15 EF3+ tornadoes this year (13 EF3, 2 EF4), which, should it hold through December, is the least since 1987 (widely considered one of the least active seasons on record). As far as I can tell, this year has been unprecedented in its "quantity vs. quality" aspect. This can obviously be seen in its lack of more quality chase days in April through June. The only day I can say that was surely above average tornado wise (in terms of picturesque opportunities) for most who chased it was 6/12 in WY/NE. This is with the period at the end of April that looked impressive until 3-4 days out when it started to completely unravel (save the Canton-Eustace tornadoes that were generally a mesoscale event) notwithstanding. <_<

Many of the strongest tornadoes of the year occurred in the cold season (2/3 to be precise), which is bad in both aspects as it led to a considerable amount of fatalities (eg. 20 deaths in the Jan 20-22 event) and little in the way of better chaser opportunities come peak/late season. Add on four high risks that generally underperformed and...yeah.

Never would've guessed there's been over 1300 tornadoes.  It seems like it's been quieter for reasons you mentioned.  

3 of those EF3 and 1 EF4 happened in the 2/28-3/1 outbreak.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
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Posted
8 minutes ago, rolltide_130 said:

Going to be time to start looking ahead to 2018 here shortly. Frankly, I consider November 1st to be the annual start of the new tornado season and continuing on into the next June. 

Still dealing with SW ridging that really doesn't want to go anywhere. PDO is being a problem despite the strengthening Nina..  

I'm not sure I'd call it PDO related since that actual index is basically neutral right now. This is more low latitude/sub-tropical in origin, i.e. off Mexico and the Baja. Ridging there can be a plus for severe season if it isn't too dominant since it enhances the meridional gradient coming through the west -> stronger jet with troughs amplifying out of the NW/Gulf of Alaska. Obviously don't want it to get too prominent though.

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rolltide_130

rolltide_130

Posted
Posted

I don't forsee anything that could cause severe weather in the next 5 days, so I'd say we can call an official wrap on the 2017 severe weather season. Looks like we're going to end at almost exactly the 50th percentile in terms of overall tornado reports, but my goodness has this been a year to forget in terms of significant outbreaks and photogenic storms. 

torgraph-big.png

 

There were only 15 EF-3+ tornadoes this year, which averaged out to be 1.16% of the overall tornado count. An average year should have about 1.16% tornadoes be EF-4+, so to say we were below average in that area is an understatement. We only had 2 EF-4 tornadoes this year, and neither one was what I would consider to be a highly photogenic tornado, with one occurring after dark and the other being relatively high-precipitation and in a more wooded area unfriendly to chasers. The plains in particular had a year to forget, with good chase days being very, very limited this season. An overactive subtropical jet plagued us for much of the year, causing multiple potentially high-end events to be contaminated by junky convection. Another issue that came up this year was too much forcing causing too many storms to fire at once, and often too early before the environment was fully primed. May 18th is a very good example of a potentially higher-end plains day that was contaminated by too many storms firing at once. 

 

However, there were a few decent synoptic events and a couple diamond in the rough type days scattered in there, with January 22nd, February 7th, February 28th, March 6th, April 14th, April 29th, May 16th-18th, and June 12th all having some bouts of noteworthy activity, including the second largest January outbreak on record with 81 confirmed tornadoes from January 21st-23rd. Overall, however, this was a bit of a disappointing year with arguably none of the multiple high risks issued this year verifying. Is this a trend that will continue into 2018? Only time will tell.. but I'm hopeful that we finally see a more active polar jet and less active subtropical jet compared to recent years...

 

And I leave with my personal list of the top 5 tornadoes of the year..  

 

5) January 22nd: Albany, GA

 

4) February 7th: Akers, LA

 

3) April 14th: Dimmitt, TX 

 

2) February 28th: Perryville, MO

 

1) April 29th: Canton, TX

  

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