Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2017

[andyhb]

As another quiet year overall without a single high risk for severe weather concludes, we look to be coming out of a weak La Nina towards next spring, shifting towards neutral. These years recently have tended to not produce very well (2006, 2009, 2012) in May and June, especially in the Plain states, albeit 2012 was exceptional in its magnitude of eastern ridging. They have tended to have a large amount of their activity early in the season in March and April. That said, the atmospheric response to this Nina has been rather pronounced compared to its magnitude in SSTAs. Some other analogs worth looking at include 1984, 1999, 2008 (this December's temperature pattern across North America was rather close to December 2007) and possibly 2014. 1999 and 2008's status are weakened slightly by their more dominant -PDO signatures and stronger La Nina events, whereas 1984 may be the strongest analog going by SSTAs alone out of all of them. 2000, 2009, 2011 and 2014 are the recent -ENSO years where we have been coming out of or maintaining a +QBO heading into spring (although none of them had the bizarre behaviour that this recent episode has displayed).

Much of the warm blob along the West Coast in the North Pacific has been replaced by cold anomalies over the last calendar year, although a warm ring indicative of a +PDO continues closer to shore. I would expect this +PDO signature to weaken a bit as we move towards spring given the tendency for ridging into the Aleutians and Alaska (which may also favour western troughing). Warmth remains entrenched from just north of the equator to roughly 45˚N. The Gulf continues to be very warm for the time of year, which may help with moisture later on should that maintain, although it remains to be seen how dominant the SE ridge will be through the rest of the winter and into spring, which could determine whether this upcoming severe season is truncated early or not.

Number of tornadoes: 1190

First High Risk: March 21

[rolltide_130]

Number of tornadoes: 1060

First high risk: None 

[Stebo]

I think we are starting to turn the corner into a more active period as the PDO should sink more toward neutral, along with moving out of the Nino pattern to at the very least a weak -ENSO should help things as well. I do like the prospects of an earlier start to the season especially if we can maintain the -PNA blocking in the southeast and keep the Gulf of Mexico protected from strong cold fronts. I will go with 1250 tornadoes for the year and I like March 13th for the first high risk in more than 2 1/2 years.

Tornado count 1250

First high risk Mar 13th.

[monsoonman1]

Feel like we are due for bigger action east of the Mississippi, and considering ENSO state and other factors, I'm going to say we will get a big late-winter or early-spring outbreak there. I'm not too bullish on the Plains tornado season, but I think it will have a few decent events, maybe a big event similar to 2012.

Tornado Count: 1165

First High Risk: April 3rd (TN/KY)

[hlcater]

Number of TORs: 1050

First High Risk: April 12th

Just barely put down a high risk, wouldn't be surprised if another year goes by without one.

[Wx 24/7]

Tornado Count: 1080

First High Risk: May 3

[Roger Smith]

1282 tornados

First high risk April 7th in MO/IL/KY/IN

 

[southmdwatcher]

1194 tornadoes

First High Risk: March 20th, east of Dixie Alley

[MUWX]

980 tornadoes 

April 23 first high risk

[jshetley]

1200 and first high risk on April 4 in AL, Miss, Tenn, and GA.

[HailTracer]

After the past few years, this is the first year I actually have some optimism about the severe weather season. Like previously mentioned, the ENSO state favors more activity especially east of the Mississippi. The plains may be quieter than usual, but the southeast is due for a solid couple of events. I have a high risk date but I would not be shocked if the SPC does not pull the trigger this year and stick with a moderate risk and then the event over performs.

Number of tornadoes: 1150

First High Risk: April 21st TN/MS/AL

[thewxmann]

999, no high risk

Persistence (with regards to guessing the numbers and the first high risk, or lack thereof) has worked for a few years now.

[Hoosier]

It used to be that you could almost count on a high risk even in down years, but not anymore.  I've seen some speculation that the addition of the ENH category may have something to do with it (some setups that previously would've gotten a high risk now get a moderate) since there's an extra category to play with.  Not sure if it's that, a lack of readily apparent high risk setups in the past few years, or some combination.

[WxKevinM]

Number of tubes: 1050

First High Risk: April 12th, ARKLATEX

[ConvectiveIA]

On 1/5/2017 at 11:15 AM, Hoosier said:

It used to be that you could almost count on a high risk even in down years, but not anymore.  I've seen some speculation that the addition of the ENH category may have something to do with it (some setups that previously would've gotten a high risk now get a moderate) since there's an extra category to play with.  Not sure if it's that, a lack of readily apparent high risk setups in the past few years, or some combination.

Last summer being my first in Iowa, I was somewhat disappointed with the quality of thunderstorms experienced. Sure they were more frequent than anyplace else I lived, but I never even saw any hail or gyrating supercells or anything all summer.

[OUGrad05]

1,183 Tors

First High Risk - March 19 Dixie Alley

First Plains High Risk - April 17

[OUGrad05]

On 1/5/2017 at 11:15 AM, Hoosier said:

It used to be that you could almost count on a high risk even in down years, but not anymore.  I've seen some speculation that the addition of the ENH category may have something to do with it (some setups that previously would've gotten a high risk now get a moderate) since there's an extra category to play with.  Not sure if it's that, a lack of readily apparent high risk setups in the past few years, or some combination.

That's a good point regarding ENH but frankly, I think it has more to do with the messy setups with lots of open variables.  I remember chasing last year on a few higher end mod days and they barely verified as a slight risk, but if one variable had verified instead of not, things would have popped like crazy.  Weird and slow these last couple years especially in the plains.

[cheese007]

850, no high risk 

[yoda]

1075... no high risk

[Indystorm]

1072 with no high risk...but a more active season than we have seen in recent years.

[jshetley]

High risk officially coming today for parts of GA and FLA on the 13z outlook according to latest discussion from the SPC.

[David Reimer]

Heh, guess that throws most of the high risk contests out the window. 

[Stebo]

I guess I was the closest on the high risk zone... quite shocked that they went High though it is certainly a valid case if what the CAMs show for the Southeast today/tonight

[Hoosier]

I wonder how common it is to get a high risk that far south.  That is a pretty good chunk of northern Florida.

[Cerakoter1984]

I'm really late to this but 1531 tornadoes. Active, long duration severe season incoming.

[monsoonman1]

Somewhat fitting that our first High Risk in almost three years is (mostly) a bust. Feel like we will get at least one more High before the year is over.

[Cerakoter1984]

1 hour ago, monsoonman1 said:

Somewhat fitting that our first High Risk in almost three years is (mostly) a bust. Feel like we will get at least one more High before the year is over.

If we get to vote on next high risk, I vote March 22.

[Quincy]

Skewed by the recent outbreak, this month has already featured the second most January tornadoes since 1950. The record is 212 in 1999 and we're already over 100 so far. (the month should end quiet though)

[Quixotic1]

I'm going whole hog.  2008 was a very good year and I think it's a very good analog.  I'll hedge it a little and say 1,550.  First High Risk:  April 21.  bam.

 

eta:  erp on the high risk.  duh... 

[andyhb]

On 1/22/2017 at 8:43 AM, Hoosier said:

I wonder how common it is to get a high risk that far south.  That is a pretty good chunk of northern Florida.

Late on this, but that's the furthest south high risk issued. 3/1/2007 was close, but it didn't extend into the peninsula.