Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Yeap.. Basically in line with most other guidance for the area. 2-4" for the NW burbs Hopefully we'll keep the active storm track with some colder air in the weeks ahead....December turning out to be a wet month for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 RGEM looks good for interior through its run, much colder than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 NNE special on the GFS. WSW's up for a good chunk of CNE and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 27 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM looks good for interior through its run, much colder than GFS 4-6" by 18z Thursday and its still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 34 minutes ago, snywx said: 4-6" by 18z Thursday and its still snowing.. Rgem has been way to wet and snowy this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem has been way to wet and snowy this winter so far Agreed.. Im liking a general 3-5" snowfall along and N of I-84 w/ amounts dropping off rapidly as one heads S. Upton seems to think so as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem has been way to wet and snowy this winter so far I agree and disagree, I think the sample size is too small, last storm that dropped close to 7" here was wayyy underdone by RGEM, Nam actually nailed it... as for the smaller event before that, it showed nearly 6" and I only got about 3.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Albany likes a general 4-6" up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 NaM really blows up off jersey coast looks to push warmth all the way up to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ugly Nam run for everyone even interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Well this storm is dead on to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ugly Nam run for everyone even interior no cold air source, no blocking to slow it down, it will take off east too fast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 WWA issued for 3-7" for my area, doubtful I'd see 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z Nam rain all the way up here, very little snow, not sure what Albany is seeing with a 3-7" forcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Well this storm is dead on to the next Agree I hate New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Agree I hate New England Bright side is the mountains up there will get smacked. Boston looks like all rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 41 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z Nam rain all the way up here, very little snow, not sure what Albany is seeing with a 3-7" forcast The NAM sounding is not even close for snow during the heaviest precip until you get really far north or above 2500ft. It really warms below 900mb. Sucks having SEerly flow at all levels without a good antecent airmass. But once in a while these bombing lows with strong lift do funny things to the column. I wonder if there will be any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That miller B life guys. Rarely works out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Well we have a Gale Watch here in the city - at least there's that: Quote ... Gale watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon... * winds and seas... west winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A gale watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to 47 kt has significantly increased... but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1-3" on the 12z RGEM North and West of the 287, 80 interchange. 3-6" once up into Western Orange County and points NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The NAM sounding is not even close for snow during the heaviest precip until you get really far north or above 2500ft. It really warms below 900mb. Sucks having SEerly flow at all levels without a good antecent airmass. But once in a while these bombing lows with strong lift do funny things to the column. I wonder if there will be any surprises. You also have low pressure north of the lakes which keeps the SE flow. Had we had a good high this would have been a different story for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm just happy to see some kind of coastal storm develop. Once the pattern starts favoring the development of coastal lows, it's usually only a matter of time before one intensifies in a good spot and hooks up with cold air to produce some kind of snow close to the coast. I'm not saying to expect anything major or significant in the coming weeks, but compared to what we've been seeing the last few months, I'll take tomorrow's storm as a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Bright side is the mountains up there will get smacked. Boston looks like all rain now. Exactly, I'll be up at Stratton Vermont this weekend where they should get a foot. The house I stay at is at 1600' should be close there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 On 12/27/2016 at 9:47 AM, forkyfork said: se flow in december. next! Forky FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: Forky FTW It's not so much the SE flow, the storm just develops too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like Upton pulled the trigger on a WWA for Orange/Putnam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 in the old days the forecast would have been rain beginning as snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Most of the guidance I've seen today has dramatically cut back on precipitation totals. The surface low really doesn't develop until it reaches SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Most of the guidance I've seen today has dramatically cut back on precipitation totals. The surface low really doesn't develop until it reaches SNE. I don't think that's really true. There's already a surface low center in Virginia by 12z tomorrow morning on most guidance. And it deepens fairly rapidly from then on out. That's why we'll probably have a period of moderate or heavy precipitation. The problem is this coastal low doesn't become dominant and a fully mature mid-level circulation doesn't develop until too late (even though it has been steadily trending that way for days). That means SEerly winds flood the boundary layer with above freezing temperatures and snow is confined to the Catskills and Berks. In some runs a few days ago, the SLP was developing too late to even bring more than a tenth or two of precip to the area. The multi day trend has been to amplify the trof and develop the SLP earlier. But with the parent low in central Ontario, we're still screwed even with the rapidly developing coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 MWN Thursday Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a southeast wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -20. Very windy, with an east wind 35 to 45 mph becoming west 75 to 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Friday Snow likely, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Very windy, with a west wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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