UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euro From south to north southern westchester/rockland is the cutoff Dusting to 1" southern westchester/NYC 2-4" rockland/westchester 3-6" NNJ 4-6" between rockland and 84 3-6" putnum county (more north you go) 6-8" southern dutchess 8-10+" NE dutchess 6-8" Ulster county 4-6" Sullivan county dont gripe on 1" discrepancies, im eyeballing, but it's pretty accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Snow totals include a change over to rain for everyone 850 never gets above 0 for interior but surface temps hit mid 30s, lets see if it trends colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Interesting run for NYC area. .75 QPF with 850 temps at around -4 and 925 temps around -1. If the low deepens enough, I would think we could get some Snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks good for everyone but surface is warm The NAM was about 10 degrees too warm with the storm 2 weekends ago 2 days out. Had NYC at about 45-50 degrees when the temp didnt get above 35 until that Sat night way after precip ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 35 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Interesting run for NYC area. .75 QPF with 850 temps at around -4 and 925 temps around -1. If the low deepens enough, I would think we could get some Snow out of this This will accumulate for most N of 78 on the backside . Even Monmouth County and LI are in the game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 se flow in december. next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 - 4 at 850 / 33 KNYC Does this change ? Depends on how far W that shield can expand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I see no way after 20Z or so once winds shift in that setup how the coast doesn't go over to snow. At the same time though it would to probably just be a coating. The system is moving too fast and isn't vertically stacked which tends to go against any significant snow at the coast, even in a case where you changeover. I'm thinking the NAM is overdoing the precip in the 57-63 hour period significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: se flow in december. next! Sucks if we had a decent airmass in front of this storm it would be a good snowstorm. A bit of pna spike also. Instead we are left with rain to wet flakes at the end if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Looks like 1-2 KNYC/EWR/LGA/KBLM ? This could still trend colder . The JMA was the first to see it and now the RGEM is already colder at the back of it`s range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I think this is a fairly healthy dumping North and West, probably on the order of 2-4 or 3-5" of wet snow. I don't anticipate much if any accumulation East of the NJTPK. The surface is in the lower 40's when precip starts and is just about done by Sunset. Their could be a burst of heavier snow just about everywhere as the mid-level centers organize, but as others have said, it's a quick mover with a poor antecedent air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 RGEM 2M at the start of it`s precip 12K at the start of it`s precip Not sure if I would us the GFS for the BL here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 UKMET shows almost an inch of QPF. No idea what the temps are though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euro absolutely crushes sne and nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro absolutely crushes sne and nne Looks warm for a lot of SNE. Crushes CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro absolutely crushes sne and nne We don't really care about sne or nne. Looks warm for our area quick hitter a couple of inches if that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, ag3 said: Looks warm for a lot of SNE. Crushes CNE and NNE. Epic CCB for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Epic CCB for NNE The 1,000 moose will enjoy it. SNE is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 19 minutes ago, ag3 said: The 1,000 moose will enjoy it. SNE is mostly rain. Lol I love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: This threat is dead for us coastal people There could be a burst of something more than flurries near the coast for an hour at the end, but I agree this is 2-4" or so for the far north and west suburbs, vast majority rain closer to the city and coast and then the classic developing too late bomb that crushes New England. BOS might do well at the end and get 6" in 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: There could be a burst of something more than flurries near the coast for an hour at the end, but I agree this is 2-4" or so for the far north and west suburbs, vast majority rain closer to the city and coast and then the classic developing too late bomb that crushes New England. BOS might do well at the end and get 6" in 2-3 hours. Yep. Sne is still in the game and Bos could end with a wet paste. Should be some good radar porn in North Mass to ME Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Sucks if we had a decent airmass in front of this storm it would be a good snowstorm. A bit of pna spike also. Instead we are left with rain to wet flakes at the end if we're lucky No cold air and we're relying on the storm to develop on time or a bit early, history says these form a bit N and E of modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air and we're relying on the storm to develop on time or a bit early, history says these form a bit N and E of modeling I want to see a 985mb low about 50 miles east of Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Sundog said: I want to see a 985mb low about 50 miles east of Delaware. Just not our year for that type of set up. We have been pretty fortunate to experience NYC top 5 snowstorms in the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 there's a low where we want a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Just not our year for that type of set up. We have been pretty fortunate to experience NYC top 5 snowstorms in the last 10 years. It's annoying to see a pretty decent track and precip amounts and get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Sundog said: It's annoying to see a pretty decent track and precip amounts and get rain. Welcome to the 90's Mr Dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18z nam puts the final nail in this one for most. at least we keep the active storm track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 18z nam puts the final nail in this one for most. at least we keep the active storm track.... Yeap.. Basically in line with most other guidance for the area. 2-4" for the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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