UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Fingers crossed this won't jynx it, but models have been trending with an earlier development than before, with advisory level snows for some as of now, if it can continue this trend and get going a few hours earlier even the coast would be in business for advisory level snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 EPS low location is optimal, just need it to deepen quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Looks like a quick hitter as the developing low center swings around the parent low. I suppose the evolution could change if the secondary mid-level center developed much sooner, but a drastic change is probably unlikely. But it is starting to look like there could be a short period of moderate or heavy precipitation. I'll be down in southern Dutchess for this one. I think surface temperatures in the lower elevations could limit snow. It's exciting to at least have something to track. Further northeast and elevated is probably best this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 GFS slight improvement but wants to keep most except extreme N+W burbs rain gfs is vastly different from euro/Nam keeps most of NE rain also, until you get into interior NH/VT and Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 The WPC says NYC runs 'out of the money' thru 7PM on Thurs. for even 1". The jackpot area is upper New York State and is only 4"-8" anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Author Share Posted December 26, 2016 16 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The WPC says NYC runs 'out of the money' thru 7PM on Thurs. for even 1". The jackpot area is upper New York State and is only 4"-8" anyway. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The JMA is impressive. It develops the mid levels really early and the surface low starts deepening rapidly in the mid-atlantic. It looks like it would bring significant precip to the whole area (snow in the NW burbs) with comparatively mature wraparound circulation axis right through the lower and mid-HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The JMA depiction is actually a pretty significant nor-easter. It's the best run of any model yet, locally more impressive than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The JMA is the only model that gets the mid-levels going fast enough to impact the area with wraparound precip. The Euro is close but mostly just a little late. The JMA has a mature 700mb circulation as the bombing low passes NYC's latitude. The JMA is probably too optimistic with respect to the mid-levels, but it's exactly what we'd want to see (save for some boundary layer problems early on). And most guidance seems to be trending in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18z JMA continues to look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z JMA continues to look good Inner Weenie wants to take this serious... I just can't though, jma is hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Still think this gets going too late for us. I would love it to get going quick but I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 From what I see Nam looks better so far through 60, energy trails a bit compared to 18z and is def a tad stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 LP is still on shore 18z Thursday, compared to about 75+ miles off coast on last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Nam looks good for interior and NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 990 south of LI, this should result in an interior warning snowfall for NE, 4-6" NY interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Trends our friend, each suite for a couple days now has come in stronger, with a faster bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Nam deepens the low earlier but still too warm for the immediate area. North and west get 2-4. Sne away from the coast and up into NNE get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam deepens the low earlier but still too warm for the immediate area. North and west get 2-4. Sne away from the coast and up into NNE get hammered Thats for 18z.. Wrong map 0z is much snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 How's this for a trend in our favor just today alone 12z 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Thats for 18z.. Wrong map Yeah just changed it. Wish we could trust the nam this far out. CCB would crank over our area if that's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah just changed it. Wish we could trust the nam this far out. CCB would crank over our area if that's true Agreed. But the NAM isn't the only one picking up on the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Really good upper level trend on NAM 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Really good upper level trend on NAM 06z 12z Looks like the trough is going neg sooner there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Looks like the trough is going neg sooner there Exactly what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS does improve, but just slightly for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Ggem pushes too far off coast Nam is on its own for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euros more amped and slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euros gonna increase totals for the interior burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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