CAPE Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Have we ever seen a perfectly modeled snow event 10 days out actually work out? I want to believe that we can track this for 10 days and then cash in. But I know better. Although last year we had quite a lead time. 6 days I think and it trended better each run. Not so much on the op runs, as they often show a storm then lose it and bring it back, then lose it again. But on the ens, especially for most of the "big" storms, a good set up shows itself at fairly long leads. Thats where we are now. Pretty strong signal for a winter storm, details all still to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Days 10-11 on EPS look so sweet at h5- nice ridge poking westward into GL, and trough at 50-50. Famous last words. No one wants to be in the bulls eye 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not so much on the op runs, as they often show a storm then lose it and bring it back, then lose it again. But on the ens, especially for most of the "big" storms, a good set up shows itself at fairly long leads. Thats where we are now. Pretty strong signal for a winter storm, details all still to be worked out. Exactly. The setup works in general but how it evolves in or out of our favor won't be known for 5+ days. Euro op is only one way it could possibly work. The ensemble spread is still pretty large with about half showing basically no event. Some had nice coastals but but different timing. Others had nice over over running and some had rain with west tracks. Latching onto an op at this range will get feelings hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro day 8.5-10 makes me cry. Anyone seeing little spots of snow at 54h? Looks like both Euro and GFS are showing the same thing. Just tiny pockets of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Famous last words. No one wants to be in the bulls eye 10 days out Who said anything about being in a bullseye? Simply discussing the synoptic setup as advertised on the ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Guys, are we at 2:45 am bedtimes type of anxiety yet? I'm getting close. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. The setup works in general but how it evolves in or out of our favor won't be known for 5+ days. Euro op is only one way it could possibly work. The ensemble spread is still pretty large with about half showing basically no event. Some had nice coastals but but different timing. Others had nice over over running and some had rain with west tracks. Latching onto an op at this range will get feelings hurt. Exactly. People better keep their expectations in check. Sure, the mean is "in the blue" (a whopping 3-3.5") for 15 days, but 19 members are a virtual shutout with about 25 being pretty heavy with amounts. Only 9 members shown more than a couple of inches in the next ten days. We need to celebrate a better pattern but keep the snow thoughts restricted to actual events within about 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Guys, are we at 2:45 am bedtimes type of anxiety yet? I'm getting close. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk lol I lost a lot of sleep inside of 5 days for last January's storm, but we aren't even close to that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 lol I lost a lot of sleep inside of 5 days for last January's storm, but we aren't even close to that here.I'm not there YET. My GF's anger wouldn't be worth it lol. But seriously, pretty good looking at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol I lost a lot of sleep inside of 5 days for last January's storm, but we aren't even close to that here. I've never done that for any storm. I sometimes wish model data was only available once a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I keep saying I shouldn't stay up, but my body is trained to stay up when tracking big(ish) events and I wake up early for every event. Can't help it. It's a disease. I suffer from it as well. Always have.. it was a bit different tracking when I was a kid. We didn't have smartphones lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I keep saying I shouldn't stay up, but my body is trained to stay up when tracking big(ish) events and I wake up early for every event. Can't help it. It's a disease. Alcohol helps knock one out before the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I suffer from it as well. Always have.. it was a bit different tracking when I was a kid. We didn't have smartphones lol. Thats how I was when I was living in Louisiana with tropical weather events... couldn't turn my head away ever. I'd stay up til 2 AM to catch the Euro and then wake up the next day at 6 AM to catch the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I keep saying I shouldn't stay up, but my body is trained to stay up when tracking big(ish) events and I wake up early for every event. Can't help it. It's a disease. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm that way for tropical too It's even worse (better?) when there is an active storm... I remember for Matthew I set my alarm at 2 AM and 5 AM to catch the windspeed updates and track nudges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I keep saying I shouldn't stay up, but my body is trained to stay up when tracking big(ish) events and I wake up early for every event. Can't help it. It's a disease. If I wake up to a lot of notifications from this thread then I know we scored overnight. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 For me, I will not come back until Tuesday. Then I will look at models and see where we are at. It will save me a lot of sleep and disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol I lost a lot of sleep inside of 5 days for last January's storm, but we aren't even close to that here. Same here, I'll admit! That Saturday afternoon before the storm actually occurred (the next Fri/Sat), all the 12Z guidance was mostly locked in on a significant event. It was remarkable. Details were of course not quite "all there" yet. But when I saw the guidance that afternoon, I knew we'd all better plan for a long week with little sleep! Similarly for Feb. 5-6, 2010, and even PD-II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 You guys are in good shape. We aren't very "locked in" just yet. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You guys are in good shape. We aren't very "locked in" just yet. LOL By Tuesday you would say it would be time to start to pay attention right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You guys are in good shape. We aren't very "locked in" just yet. LOL Haha! True...besides, with nothing happening for the entire month of December, we've stocked up on plenty of "reserve" sleep anyhow for whenever it may be needed! If it's needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, shouldn't amaze anyone. MA climo isn't very snowy. Mean snowfall is made up of boom and bust so sucking happens way more often than winning. Generally we probably need 3-4 chances for each actual event. This is only our second one so far. Wasting good setups is something we do well. lol We'll, it's not so common knowledge to us weather novices (don't forget you do have some that follow this forum!)...In fact, I wasn't even aware of how much had to go right to get snow until I started following you guys on here a couple years ago (I knew snowstorms were spotty, but not the reason why). Even if it's not surprising...it's still amazing either way, lol So I'm wondering: The snowier regions of the country (i.e. the Midwest) can track snow a heck of a lot easier, can't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z GEFS seems like a step down but still look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We'll, it's not so common knowledge to us weather novices (don't forget you do have some that follow this forum!)...In fact, I wasn't even aware of how much had to go right to get snow until I started following you guys on here a couple years ago (I knew snowstorms were spotty, but not the reason why). Even if it's not surprising...it's still amazing either way, lol So I'm wondering: The snowier regions of the country (i.e. the Midwest) can track snow a heck of a lot easier, can't they? Part of me wishes I never found the pre-amwx board fka easternwx. It's a rabbit hole and a time suck. Lol. I would say anywhere outside of orographic mountain zones and lake effect belts are equally as tricky. The MW doesn't really get big storms often at all too so living in the noreaster zone is more fun in some ways. Once you have the snow weenie disease there can never be enough snow. I lived in ski country in the CO rockies from 92-99. We had a 150" month and a couple 400"+ seasons and I still always wanted more. I'm a very sick man. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Ya'll are getting a bit premature with this. We aren't even tracking a storm yet. We have a threat window in 9-12 days. The models didn't spit out a perfect storm solution at 12z, far from it. There's plenty of room for both improvement and sadness with the depiction shown today. If the ensembles keep showing the -EPO/-NAO/50-50 low scenario for the next 3 days or so, then there will be enough fidelity to start keying on 1 or 2 short waves and tracking single storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Part of me wishes I never found the pre-amwx board fka easternwx. It's a rabbit hole and a time suck. Lol. I would say anywhere outside of orographic mountain zones and lake effect belts are equally as tricky. The MW doesn't really get big storms often at all too so living in the noreaster zone is more fun in some ways. Once you have the snow weenie disease there can never be enough snow. I lived in ski country in the CO rockies from 92-99. We had a 150" month and a couple 400"+ seasons and I still always wanted more. I'm a very sick man. Lol I would love 600 inches of snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ya'll are getting a bit premature with this. We aren't even tracking a storm yet. We have a threat window in 9-12 days. The models didn't spit out a perfect storm solution at 12z, far from it. There's plenty of room for both improvement and sadness with the depiction shown today. If the ensembles keep showing the -EPO/-NAO/50-50 low scenario for the next 3 days or so, then there will be enough fidelity to start keying on 1 or 2 short waves and tracking single storms. Now this would be a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Super excited for Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 28 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: 18z GEFS seems like a step down but still look decent. We lost a couple inches from the day 7 wave, there were still some big hits in previous runs with that wave to our west, they are pretty much gone now. The snow from the day 9-12 period is about the same. Its mostly noise. If i wanted to nitpick the blocking shifted east slightly in the long range 18z and that is not good but its been shifting around run to run, it wasnt a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Super excited for Nova Scotia. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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