BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: With the way every single event has gone this season pretty much everywhere on the EC, being north @ d8-10 is preferable. right. what a stretch of moisture. impressive certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 I know I wouldn't want to bank on a cold push being as far south as modeled a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Heh, what's not to like here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At least the folks in the se can be happy for a while. Lol easy. A good look for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I agree plus note that the Euro track of the vort would give us at least light snow in the 6 to 12 hours after 240. Great run. Ens will likely up the ante from 0z. I can extrapolate a second event from the d10 h5 panel. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, what's not to like here? that is almost screensaver worthy. look at the bridge coming over the pole funneling in. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 45 minutes ago, H2O said: Wes just said its going to snow when he says "orgasmic" again, then we can all dance and make this face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 also, yes, that is my kid. I'm determined to turn her into a meme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Bob made that face when he posted that 500 lvl map from the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Cant wait to see the EPS. btw southeast forum is going wild lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They grow so fast sorry - i posted it mainly for the face/reaction and how it fit with the discussion at hand. but yes, growing too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Here's a panel from the jan blizzard. Trough is negative and the upper level low is closed off. This is what a big storm looks like in the upper levels. Scrolling quickly along I almost fainted thinking a model put out this solution.. Then I figured it out.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 55 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that is almost screensaver worthy. look at the bridge coming over the pole funneling in. wow. Blue from Hawaii to Africa. Don't recall having seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Great run. Ens will likely up the ante from 0z. I can extrapolate a second event from the d10 h5 panel. lol Same here lol... what an excellent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Getting a nice event in the first half of January has been nearly impossible since the 96 blizzard. It would be great to change that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro ens definitely upped the ante. The southern slider cluster is there but a fair # more are direct hits through hr264. Sweet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens definitely upped the ante. The southern slider cluster is there but a fair # more are direct hits through hr264. Sweet run. Awesome. I also heard that Atlanta on the 10 day mean has 2 to 4 inches of snow , which I believe is unheard of . Have you ever seen that Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, frd said: Awesome. I also heard that Atlanta on the 10 day mean has 2 to 4 inches of snow , which I believe is unheard of . Have you ever seen that Bob? Hard to say. I never look that far south. lol. I don't see the 2-4 down there though. The 2" line cuts NC in half through d13. 1.5+/- in ATL. Euro control hits NC and our area good though. I can get behind that. Would be great for the MA and SE crew to share a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, what's not to like here? That looks like a West based negative NAO correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 EPS Control is excellent snow accumulation wise... weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: that is almost screensaver worthy. look at the bridge coming over the pole funneling in. wow. Two red eyes and a blue smile. What more could we ask for? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hard to say. I never look that far south. lol. I don't see the 2-4 down there though. The 2" line cuts NC in half through d13. 1.5+/- in ATL. Euro control hits NC and our area good though. I can get behind that. Would be great for the MA and SE crew to share a good event. Thanks again. An exciting look for sure. A lot of snow cover can be put down in a pattern such as the Euro is showing. Hopefully this time the blocking materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks again. An exciting look for sure. A lot of snow cover can be put down in a pattern such as the Euro is showing. Hopefully this time the blocking materializes Atlantic block starts forming inside of 5 days so that's not a fantasy. It's pretty much reality at this point. We just need to be in the cross hairs with a wave running the boundary. We won't really have a good idea on that for 5-7 days unfortunately. It's going to be a roller coaster in here for sure the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Atlantic block starts forming inside of 5 days so that's not a fantasy. It's pretty much reality at this point. We just need to be in the cross hairs with a wave running the boundary. We won't really have a good idea on that for 5-7 days unfortunately. It's going to be a roller coaster in here for sure the rest of the week. Never ceases to amaze me just how hard it is to get it to snow here, lol So we can even have a very good setup like the one you just posted a picture of...yet we still need things to track a certain way, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Never ceases to amaze me just how hard it is to get it to snow here, lol So we can even have a very good setup like the one you just posted a picture of...yet we still need things to track a certain way, right? Lol Nah, shouldn't amaze anyone. MA climo isn't very snowy. Mean snowfall is made up of boom and bust so sucking happens way more often than winning. Generally we probably need 3-4 chances for each actual event. This is only our second one so far. Wasting good setups is something we do well. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Does anyone know what the EPS control verification is. How does it compare to the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, shouldn't amaze anyone. MA climo isn't very snowy. Mean snowfall is made up of boom and bust so sucking happens way more often than winning. Generally we probably need 3-4 chances for each actual event. This is only our second one so far. Wasting good setups is something we do well. lol 100% agree with Bob. At least the projected setup being shown gives us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Days 10-11 on EPS look so sweet at h5- nice ridge poking westward into GL, and trough at 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Does anyone know what the EPS control verification is. How does it compare to the model run. Need dtk to chime in, but I believe the control is initialized exactly like the op but run at ensemble resolution. So no reason to think it's really superior to either the ensemble mean or the op. The control got a lot of cache once upon a time when it sniffed out a big storm before the op. Can't remember which one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Days 10-11 on EPS look so sweet at h5- nice ridge poking westward into GL, and trough at 50-50. Have we ever seen a perfectly modeled snow event 10 days out actually work out? I want to believe that we can track this for 10 days and then cash in. But I know better. Although last year we had quite a lead time. 6 days I think and it trended better each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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