Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Literally 0 members support anything close to a GFS solution. Lol looks like we got Dr. No'd 50 times. Was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: some good news... 39 hours into the NAM and the cutoff remains intact. Not a sheared look at this point by any stretch. Really can't take much stock in that. With them both being American models they tend to mirror each other in the earler time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm a bit less pessimistic than that lol but yeah, point taken. More like 2nd and 15 at the 50 to me. Not great odds but still in position to make something happen. You sound like you're chasing a big dog iyby though I don't know I think some are being optimistic based on the gfs. Problem is it seems to be on its own in ejecting a decent sw from the west. It's not that it's gfs v euro. It's gfs v everything. Honestly if it was the euro totally on its own I'd still be very skeptical. The pattern setup isn't bad at all but the way everything gets washed out coming in off the pacific looks like a problem to me. Sometimes you spend all day setting up the table nice only to realize the food sucks. As for what I'm chasing, I'd be happy if I came out of this period with at least a respectable moderate event. Maybe a 4" snow type thing. Keep in mind my climo is a bit different from many in here. While it's been bad in the urban corridor we're really in trouble up here (given average up here is around 38") if I'm heading into late January or feb with less then a few inches total. Climo up here says we should be way ahead of where we are now. My expectations are biased by location. Getting less then 15" is almost unheard of up here. That's like a below 5" year in D.C. But if I'm heading into feb with nothing or close to nothing that's looking very possible. The fact I've had basically nothing and that's a lot more rare up here so far, and looking at how bleak things might be for a while after this next 10 days really raises what I'm looking for out of this. I know that's not logical but it's just how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS says forget wave 2. Much less support than last night and last night wasn't very good either. Wave 1 might get us our first inch though. It mostly killed wave one too though. A small group manages some meager totals with it but the majority are mostly nada with wave one also. It was a pretty awful run in all. I can't find any positive to spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm definitely being optimistic based on the GFS, but I have some reasons for it. One, there is literally no other hope after this period. Two, it's not like the other models are THAT far off from a possible GFS solution. Three, the GFS has been fairly consistent on the big storm idea for someone. Four, the GFS and NAM are closely aligned in the early-going. Five, the GFS seems to have done decent this winter and the Euro no longer seems like the King it used to be. But I admit that chances are not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What do the euro ens say for the first wave around here? Mean is 1" D.C. East. 1/2" west. About 1/3 have something like 2-4" the other 2/3 have mostly nothing or a cartooper. I'm very excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm definitely being optimistic based on the GFS, but I have some reasons for it. One, there is literally no other hope after this period. Two, it's not like the other models are THAT far off from a possible GFS solution. Three, the GFS has been fairly consistent on the big storm idea for someone. Four, the GFS and NAM are closely aligned in the early-going. Five, the GFS seems to have done decent this winter and the Euro no longer seems like the King it used to be. But I admit that chances are not great. I can agree with most of that except the others not being far off. The euro camp isn't close. They are worlds apart on the energy coming out and cowherd close to a storm threat. We will know soon as the critical differences start in only 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I guess if we want to dig through the crap of the 12z EPS to find a silver lining there is a small cluster that hits us with something day 10-13. Thats about the only game to watch on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I understand that its out of its range, but nam hr84 looks just like gfs at 500. nothing like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: I understand that its out of its range, but nam hr84 looks just like gfs at 500. nothing like euro. I did not see that. 500 on the NAM looks way flatter than 90 on GFS. But I am no expert so just my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's good to see the NAM on our side in the short range. Hopefully the GFS holds steady tonight on the big storm idea. I do like that the Euro is getting away from the 1st wave idea, although it didn't have any good implications this run it might on the future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Maybe if we start a thread for an event on the ropes it will work the same as the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Maybe if we start a thread for an event on the ropes it will work the same as the other way aroundRolling the dice with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not sure if its worth the discussion but the NAM at 84 is not like the GFS....closer to Euro at quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure if its worth the discussion but the NAM at 84 is not like the GFS....closer to Euro at quick glance. Thank you. I thought it was imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can't punt, have you seen the pattern coming after? At least for the next 3 weeks or so. It may be 4th and 10 at our own 20 yard line, but there is one minute left and we're down 7 with no timeouts. Punting is not an option. Ehhhhh it just seems easier to punt it now than the disappointment that, by past trends, seems to be 80% likely, lol But I understand your point about the upcoming pattern, but...personally, I might start hedging my bets on Feb. And, how often do we actually get a decent storm this early in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Watch 18z GFS hold the line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gfs Para Similar to gfsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's probably time for a thread but I don't want the stink of a failure on me to start 2017. Yeah, I wouldn't do that unless the EURO would cave. Ain't worth the risk, otherwise! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Watch 18z GFS hold the line lol Doesn't it always in this kind of situation? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 FWIW, I compared the 12z NAM at 500 to 12z GFS. They were different too. Didn't know if you guys knew but the LR NAM is less than reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 FWIW, I compared the 12z NAM at 500 to 12z GFS. They were different too. Didn't know if you guys knew but the LR NAM is less than reliable.David Bowie died too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 For JI, 12z JMA drops around .5" qpf on us when you add days 4 & 5. All snow. Get up to speed man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, mappy said: David Bowie died too Good one. I knew you would be the first to respond to that Capt Obvious comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: FWIW, I compared the 12z NAM at 500 to 12z GFS. They were different too. Didn't know if you guys knew but the LR NAM is less than reliable. Yeah its just a bit outside of its range lol. For S&G I just looked at the 18z NAM at hr 84. It leaves a weak piece of energy behind, but nothing like the GFS. Looks like it would align more with the Euro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know I think some are being optimistic based on the gfs. Problem is it seems to be on its own in ejecting a decent sw from the west. It's not that it's gfs v euro. It's gfs v everything. Honestly if it was the euro totally on its own I'd still be very skeptical. The pattern setup isn't bad at all but the way everything gets washed out coming in off the pacific looks like a problem to me. Sometimes you spend all day setting up the table nice only to realize the food sucks. As for what I'm chasing, I'd be happy if I came out of this period with at least a respectable moderate event. Maybe a 4" snow type thing. Keep in mind my climo is a bit different from many in here. While it's been bad in the urban corridor we're really in trouble up here (given average up here is around 38") if I'm heading into late January or feb with less then a few inches total. Climo up here says we should be way ahead of where we are now. My expectations are biased by location. Getting less then 15" is almost unheard of up here. That's like a below 5" year in D.C. But if I'm heading into feb with nothing or close to nothing that's looking very possible. The fact I've had basically nothing and that's a lot more rare up here so far, and looking at how bleak things might be for a while after this next 10 days really raises what I'm looking for out of this. I know that's not logical but it's just how I feel. This is the most reasonable post I've read all day. Kudos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: FWIW, I compared the 12z NAM at 500 to 12z GFS. They were different too. Didn't know if you guys knew but the LR NAM is less than reliable. 24 hours is the NAM's wheelhouse, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs Para Similar to gfs Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Damn near identical. Once again one of the major models is going to fail miserably. I know which one i would put my money on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Damn near identical. Once again one of the major models is going to fail miserably. I know which one i would put my money on. Based on past performance, it would be foolhardy to bet on the solution the GFS is spitting out, unless it still shows up on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Going to venture a guess that the 18z GFS starts coming to its senses and slowly begins its move towards the Euro/CMC/UK ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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