Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: The gfs scenario brings the system up the coast with the center over D.C. For Northern MD 00z was the only run that was a good hit. South of DC may like 12z better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, high risk said: The large EMCWF/GFS diffs are evident as early as 72 hours in. FWIW, the system coming into Oregon at that time, which becomes the key player, looks similar to the GFS in the NAM and NAM parallel. You can see the difference here, IMO. The energy is already there at 24 hours. On the gfs it manages to close off and then escape that black hole of death behind it (look at the current water vapor loop of the pacific). On the euro it seems to get sucked in and there's nothing to create our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. Look at the spacing too. Not just the energy out west is wrong but on the gfs wave one is already exiting the east coast but on the euro it's back over the Ohio valley. The second wave is still back over Utah on the gfs and ejecting from Colorado (what's left of it) on the euro. There is no spacing. Most of the energy from the second wave just gets absorbed into the first but it's a strung out mess. That's not even close to being anything. It's a timing difference between the two that's the main difference. Euro leaves no breathing room while the gfs is spaced 12-24 hours further apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Amped said: For Northern MD 00z was the only run that was a good hit. South of DC may like 12z better. I deleted that post to rethink. I just don't think your idea is so absolute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the spacing too. Not just the energy out west is wrong but on the gfs wave one is already exiting the east coast but on the euro it's back over the Ohio valley. The second wave is still back over Utah on the gfs and ejecting from Colorado (what's left of it) on the euro. There is no spacing. Most of the energy from the second wave just gets absorbed into the first but it's a strung out mess. That's not even close to being anything. It's a timing difference between the two that's the main difference. Euro leaves no breathing room while the gfs is spaced 12-24 hours further apart. fwiw http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017010206/gfsp_z500a_us_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to repost this, too much bad analysis going on here. Excellent animation. Also notice the 0z had the furthest east location of wave one. So the greatest spacing. 6z least spacing due and 12z a compromise. The end result was set at those points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll be in Spain almost the same dates. Where you going? London, Vienna, Berlin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z GEFS plumes for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS plumes for BWI. Lol. Clear as mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Fwiw today's Ukie at 120 hrs has low pressure in the northern Gulf and south of NS at 144, with the upper levels turning more south/north oriented off the East Coast from 120 to 144. Low is probably still too far south & east for the mid Atl, but at least it shows some type of low pressure/storm strengthening in the vacinity of the Southeast and East Coast (as opposed to little to nothing from the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 For me, at 18z if the energy is fully on shore at 78, then the gfs holds. If it's being stretched back into the pacific, then it may trend toward the euro. FWIW, the NAM shows it being tugged on more like the euro. Im not sure my take is correct here, but it seems pretty obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: London, Vienna, Berlin Vienna?? Ohhh I envy you (for obvious reasons, lol) Yep, ya probably won't miss too much here. Say hello to Beethoven for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 of the gfs ensemble members give dca more than 4" through 192 hours - most of the others support the euro and canadian solutionsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 41 minutes ago, Windman18 said: Found this in the Southeast forum. They've been keeping track of what model does best with their winter systems this year. So far GFS is 2/2. this is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Excellent animation. Also notice the 0z had the furthest east location of wave one. So the greatest spacing. 6z least spacing due and 12z a compromise. The end result was set at those points. WPC from their 11am EFD(before the 12z suite): TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 As someone just pointed out. The NAM looks similar to the GFS at 72-84 hours with the energy out west FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Does the Euro have any precip with the Friday wave? Yes, but really light snow, a dusting. Has nothing with the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: WPC from their 11am EFD(before the 12z suite): TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. And knowing how it usually goes when the twk models are that divergent...me thinks it's time to punt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And knowing how it usually goes when the twk models are that divergent...me thinks it's time to punt! Can't punt, have you seen the pattern coming after? At least for the next 3 weeks or so. It may be 4th and 10 at our own 20 yard line, but there is one minute left and we're down 7 with no timeouts. Punting is not an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can't punt, have you seen the pattern coming after? At least for the next 3 weeks or so. It may be 4th and 10 at our own 20 yard line, but there is one minute left and we're down 7 with no timeouts. Punting is not an option. The two best models in the world can't agree with only 5 days to go. I'm not willing to throw away 3 weeks on a long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can't punt, have you seen the pattern coming after? At least for the next 3 weeks or so. It may be 4th and 10 at our own 20 yard line, but there is one minute left and we're down 7 with no timeouts. Punting is not an option. Time for a Hail Mary? I for one am not ready to bail on this. Still enough question marks in my mind to follow this to it's Bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 The eps won't eliminate any despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS says forget wave 2. Much less support than last night and last night wasn't very good either. Wave 1 might get us our first inch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Trough is a little sharper on the EPS and the mslp anomalies look marginally better. Probably noise more then anything else though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 By what hour will we know that the 18z GFS caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: EPS says forget wave 2. Much less support than last night and last night wasn't very good either. Wave 1 might get us our first inch though. Might be time to throw our weight into wave one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just make sure Aaron Rodgers is under center and not Kirk Cousins or Joe Flaccid. Jesus. I am old school. I will take Johnny U. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The eps won't eliminate any despair Literally 0 members support anything close to a GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 some good news... 39 hours into the NAM and the cutoff remains intact. Not a sheared look at this point by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At least we still have the NAM. 18z looks like the GFS with the second wave at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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