stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Our "storm" may be 100+ hours, but the vast differences between our two major LR models show up well before then. Somebody will cave and probably soon. I hope the GFS wins, but no just because it shows we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Right. I know this is Banter-ish...but in my experience of following wx models for 15+ years. Over the next 48 hours we're going to see either the GFS or EURO concede to one or the other, and from experience I'd say 80% of the time it is the GFS that concedes, but once in a while it does happen. I mean the EURO is going to have to drastically change to show anything like the GFS is showing. FWIW anybody have the 12z JMA? Ji? Wasnt it the 18z GFS that first picked up on the boxing day blizzard in 2010? I know that missed the majority of our area, but folks in our eastern portion of the area did quite well. But all of the models did have the storm suppressed and out to sea. Im not even remotely sure if the air patterns are similar, they probably arent, just thinking about a time the GFS beat the euro to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The euro is really good @ d4. The big difference with the shortwave is a big deal. There is no way a weak wave is going to amplify in the middle of the country with this setup. 12z euro yesterday and 12 euro today (trend is our friend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah, there certainly is not a HECS on the table when you only have the GFS showing it. This is the thread to discuss LR January Pattern, this is where you're supposed to discuss the 10+ day pattern, and unfortunately it isn't look good. I'm certainly not predicting a HECS. The odds are certainly against it, but the GFS is certainly showing the possibility. I'd also venture to guess that it's either going to be almost nothing or something very big. We don't do a lot of moderate coastal snowstorms around here, at least not lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said: Wasnt it the 18z GFS that first picked up on the boxing day blizzard in 2010? I know that missed the majority of our area, but folks in our eastern portion of the area did quite well. But all of the models did have the storm suppressed and out to sea. Im not even remotely sure if the air patterns are similar, they probably arent, just thinking about a time the GFS beat the euro to the punch. Yes, that was a 48-60 hour type deal though. In general though, in situations like this 8 to 9 times out of 10 the GFS caves to the EURO when you have such a different look. There's absolutely no science to that statement, just years and years of model tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: What is a claven and what is it attached to? Believe Yoda is referring to the "Cheers" episode where Cliff Claven is on Jeopardy, has a huge lead, but bets everything in final jeopardy to lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Now, the EURO ended up caving to the GFS a few weeks ago, right? So what is it...the model where we get nothing is the right one, or will the GFS win again? Lol Round 2...fight! (I'm gonna guess the GFS caves this time as well, though...just based on history. Whenever the GFS looks really good and the EURO not so good...we usually end up bemoaning it here by the time we get inside 3-4 days, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: 12z euro yesterday and 12 euro today (trend is our friend) That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Believe Yoda is referring to the "Cheers" episode where Cliff Claven is on Jeopardy, has a huge lead, but bets everything in final jeopardy to lose! Now I see the parallel, if it doesn't snow in the new 10 days, we could have a really snow-deprived winter. A person could do well in the Mid-Atlantic with anti-wish-casting. That said, I like the new EURO trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. That difference is just stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. ty, much closer to analyses I was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I forsee a decent EPS run for us... I feel it in the Force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I forsee a decent EPS run for us... I feel it in the Force I hope so. The EPS will almost always follow fairly close to the op once we get to d6 though. The op usually jumps first at this range and the ens follow. I want to believe this is a real threat but my doubts are building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. One reason I'm so gun-ho about this is the overall variability of nearly all guidance while ensembles have been gradually improving the mean outputs for us. Friday 12 eps Saturday 12 eps...wow and Sunday 12z eps (interesting to see what it shows today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 wonder if the meso models can give us a hint on what is modt likely out westSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. That shortwave gets pulled apart on the euro, from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Bob, what happens before that period. On the EURO does that shortwave get sent off the Pacific or is there just not a S/W at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 You can see how much further west the cutoff was on the 00z run. Simply put, further west cuttoff=further north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, BTRWx said: One reason I'm so gun-ho about this is the overall variability of nearly all guidance while ensembles have been gradually improving the mean outputs for us. Friday 12 eps Saturday 12 eps...wow and Sunday 12z eps (interesting to see what it shows today) Those last two suck IMO. Would have been better with Fridays. At least it wouldn't have been as suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Bob, what happens before that period. On the EURO does that shortwave get sent off the Pacific or is there just not a S/W at all? It's there right now. Seems as if it gets pulled apart by another approaching from the pacific. The gfs leaves it intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Found this in the Southeast forum. They've been keeping track of what model does best with their winter systems this year. So far GFS is 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: wonder if the meso models can give us a hint on what is modt likely out west Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Like the 4km NAM? Or do you mean more like the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those last two suck IMO. Would have been better with Fridays. At least it wouldn't have been as suppressed. There are pluses and minuses to both scenarios. Consensus so far has been minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I hope so. The EPS will almost always follow fairly close to the op once we get to d6 though. The op usually jumps first at this range and the ens follow. I want to believe this is a real threat but my doubts are building. Agree and I am right with you on the doubting part. I posted earlier I though our best chance for seeing some snow is the Euro idea, but with a tad more defined sw and have it track just underneath. I dont buy the GFS idea of a stronger sw and amplification, given the progressive look to the pattern. This looks like a weakish wave moving offshore deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The large EMCWF/GFS diffs are evident as early as 72 hours in. FWIW, the system coming into Oregon at that time, which becomes the key player, looks similar to the GFS in the NAM and NAM parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: You can see how much further west the cutoff was on the 00z run. Simply put, further west cuttoff=further north track. Going to repost this, too much bad analysis going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 44 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like I pick the right time to go to Europe (Jan 13-22) I'll be in Spain almost the same dates. Where you going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to repost this, too much bad analysis going on here. Dude, we know exactly what the gfs is showing. If you want to do some analysis, start comparing the gfs and the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not where the issue lies. It's what happens between 72-96. Compare the GFS to the Euro. The euro didn't change much from 0z during this period. We need a strong and discreet shortwave and it gets booted like a paper football out to see with no organization. To me the GFS forecast looks a little goofy at that time period which makes me think the Euro might be more right though shortwave could still be way slower than what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Does the Euro have any precip with the Friday wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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