soadforecaster Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 looked over the GEFS, I would say half the member bring a big storm to the area. two bomb the storm out and have a 970 low over Philadelphia, they destroy inland with 2-3' of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have converged on a notsogreat pattern mid month. And by notsogreat I mean snow will be really hard to come by. The troubling piece is the large area of low heights around AK. That's a pac air pump into the conus. A logical way out would be building heights/ridge in the PNA region. Weeklies showed that and the GEFS has hinted a few times. 0z EPS finally went solidly AN temps d11-15 after sending mixed signals for a while. Fingers crossed that we can get on the board before that. Going into late Jan with a shutout stacks the odds greatly against climo+ on the season during non-nino years. Yea I posted about that the other day right before the big gfs run hit. I don't think the bad look lasts that long. But we're probably looking at a 7-10 day period of ugly. Hopefully we score before then and are back in a good look by Jan 25th. If so this can be a decent year. Get unlucky in the next 10 days and have the +epo look longer a week longer and we could be looking at a bad year. I can see it going either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: That was always my worry. This shot is gonna have to work cause we're going into another not so great period. For a while the relaxation looked mostly like the trough in the west raising heights in the east so I wasn't overly concerned because Cold would be plentiful in western canada/conus. Now it looks like a full scouring. That takes time to reset no matter what. It took a full 2 weeks back in Dec just to start setting things up again so in reality it was a 3 week relaxation. Jan can be friendlier with temps but for right now the LR patterns is pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This reminds me a little of a situation a few years ago where we had two waves spaced close and people in the D.C. Area and south were rooting on wave 1, and they did end up getting 3-5" D.C. South with it, but I just wanted that out of the way because wave two had big dog potential. I think this might have more potential for both then that did if wave one tracks correctly and skirts out quick. But we don't want wave one amplifying too much. Lol - I had literally already been thinking of that and your posts from then - hoping we don't repeat that fiasco with these two waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Unless i am reading it wrong the ukmet looks very suppresed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 if we fail in the next 10 days...the panic room will feel like redskins locker room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: if we fail in the next 10 days...the panic room will feel like redskins locker room Looks like I pick the right time to go to Europe (Jan 13-22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: if we fail in the next 10 days...the panic room will feel like redskins locker room Think warmup mid 1/96 after the big storm(s). Like Bob said, we just better not fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 No EURO updates, can't be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: IF the system is as healthy as the gfs shows I'm not worried about it being forced out south. The bigger problem would be if it's a weaker strung out system like the euro ggem look. Yep, too many newbies in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: No EURO updates, can't be good The good periods aren't out yet. Wave 1 a little more discrete and amplified compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: No EURO updates, can't be good Per SE forum, s/w looks sheered, suppressed. Idk, I don't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like I pick the right time to go to Europe (Jan 13-22) Europe looks a little bit warm but trending cooler towards the Wednesday of that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: No EURO updates, can't be good Aren't to the good frames yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Aren't to the good frames yet True, but I imagine at this point you can see the s/w coming out W.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm confused why people are talking about anything beyond the next seven days when there is the chance of a HECS on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro still has nothing that even remotely resembles the strong shortwave on the gfs @ 96. It won't be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: I'm confused why people are talking about anything beyond the next seven days when there is the chance of a HECS good winter storm on the table. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro still has nothing that even remotely resembles the strong shortwave on the gfs @ 96. It won't be a good run. Well, on the upside, the GFS has scored some this season so far, so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm confused why people are talking about anything beyond the next seven days when there is the chance of a HECS on the table. I don't think you would make this post if the LR looked like a storm parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro still has nothing that even remotely resembles the strong shortwave on the gfs @ 96. It won't be a good run. Right. I know this is Banter-ish...but in my experience of following wx models for 15+ years. Over the next 48 hours we're going to see either the GFS or EURO concede to one or the other, and from experience I'd say 80% of the time it is the GFS that concedes, but once in a while it does happen. I mean the EURO is going to have to drastically change to show anything like the GFS is showing. FWIW anybody have the 12z JMA? Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm confused why people are talking about anything beyond the next seven days when there is the chance of a HECS on the table. We might get a snowstorm, but let's not hype a HECS just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yeah, there certainly is not a HECS on the table when you only have the GFS showing it. This is the thread to discuss LR January Pattern, this is where you're supposed to discuss the 10+ day pattern, and unfortunately it isn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 maybe they overcorrected the gfs suppression issuesSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm confused why people are talking about anything beyond the next seven days when there is the chance of a HECS on the table. Prob because it's weather and this is the medium to long range discussion thread on a weather forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Well this is fun... GFS vs EURO... I hope we can pull a claven and have the GFS win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Well this is fun... GFS vs EURO... I hope we can pull a claven and have the GFS win para showed anything before the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Well this is fun... GFS vs EURO... I hope we can pull a claven and have the GFS win What is a claven and what is it attached to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, kurtstack said: maybe they overcorrected the gfs suppression issues Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Or is the Euro still having its SW bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The euro is really good @ d4. The big difference with the shortwave is a big deal. There is no way a weak wave is going to amplify in the middle of the country with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.