AmericanWxFreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GGEM sticking with the "what storm" idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bob, DC shuts down for flurries. Now let's not go overboard. We need at least an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Now let's not go overboard. We need at least an inch. Low hanging fruit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Now let's not go overboard. We need at least an inch. the new opm director may not be so quick to close government or do optiknal teleworkSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would think this is as about as good as a position we could be in 6 days out. If you take 10 storms as depicted like this one 6 days out, how many will actually verify with a bullseye in NC and southern VA. Maybe 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup..we know how this story goes being on the northern extent of heavy precip 5/6 days out. I'm fine with this run. Agree on that. We are in a nice spot for this right now. I wouldn't want to be crushed right now. Come Wednesday yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I would think this is as about as good as a position we could be in 6 days out. If you take 10 storms as depicted like this one 6 days out, how many will actually verify with a bullseye in NC and southern VA. Maybe 1 or 2. Agree but only if the gfs is correct in terms of a weak first system and a healthy secon system ejecting into the plains. If there I think we would do good. But if the other guidance is correct in a bunch of weak strung out waves coming out close together then we're in trouble. I want to see the euro move towards this solution even if it's a miss. Having a healthy system coming east is the big thing at this point. If we miss south my guess it's not because nc got 30" but because they got 2-4" from a weak strung out system. In short I'm 100% ok with what the gfs is showing. But not with the look of the other guidance att Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would think this is as about as good as a position we could be in 6 days out. If you take 10 storms as depicted like this one 6 days out, how many will actually verify with a bullseye in NC and southern VA. Maybe 1 or 2.i would feel more confident if the other global ops werent so different. i hate relying solely on the gfs.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 CMC basically washes wave 2 out to nothing. Closer spacing and no amplification. Wave 1 is a light event. GFS is on its own with a discreet and fairly strong shortwave but it's there early in the run so you would think it has decent skill through 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NC would be closed for a week or 2 if this run verifies. wow. In the snow prediction thread I specifically called for a southern slider that would be a central NC to SBY special. I hope this isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Can someone post the 500mb look? Does that S/W to the N around the Lakes interfere with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I would think this is as about as good as a position we could be in 6 days out. If you take 10 storms as depicted like this one 6 days out, how many will actually verify with a bullseye in NC and southern VA. Maybe 1 or 2. Yep. With the number of runs remaining before it's upon us, we only need 6 or 7 miles northward jog per run for big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IF the system is as healthy as the gfs shows I'm not worried about it being forced out south. The bigger problem would be if it's a weaker strung out system like the euro ggem look. Bingo! Couldn't agree more. I would want a stronger shortwave ejecting out this go around with the pieces we have at play. A strung out mess would keep the region almost high and dry. If Euro can bring more of a look similar to the GFS next run or two, I'd start the countdown to something of significance for PA south to NC. Where that ends up will have to be ironed out in the next succession of days. I liked that run because of trends we've seen already and if those occur again, we'd be the ones looking at potential eye candy. Need more support of course to back up the current look of the GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, kurtstack said: i would feel more confident if the other global ops werent so different. i hate relying solely on the gfs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It really isn't as bad as everyone wants to think. It still might not always equal Euro in terms of verification all year long but it has been right a number of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 DT not sold yet for good reason I suppose. Didn't say a big winter storm is impossible just improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 DT won't be until the EURO is on board, and for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I thought the ggem was a baby step in the right direction with the second wave. A little more delegation and aplifltude with it. Last night it was acompletekynstrung out wave along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2O said: It really isn't as bad as everyone wants to think. It still might not always equal Euro in terms of verification all year long but it has been right a number of times Overall things are not too bad. We are tracking a legit threat and its only jan. 2nd. We still basically have the entire winter ahead. If we score in the next week to 10 days that will be the first time in a long time we got some decent in the first half of January in quite some time. As far as the Euro observation of course we want it to come on board sooner than later but I can remember several times in the last fews years where the Euro had a big storm first only to lose it and never bring it back. I think the GFS has held its own recently so lets hope it has taking the lead this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not sure about the ind members but the 12z gefs has a good look imo. At least you can follow the short wave at 500 that the gfs is keying on and follow it all the way to the east coast. Not a washed out mess on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Interestingly, about 3/4ths of the gefs members put down some light snowfall with wave 1. Wave 2 is still spread pretty good between nothing, miss to south, shellacking, and mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 My take is more members are north with the storm that what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly, about 3/4ths of the gefs members put down some light snowfall with wave 1. Wave 2 is still spread pretty good between nothing, miss to south, shellacking, and mixing problems. This reminds me a little of a situation a few years ago where we had two waves spaced close and people in the D.C. Area and south were rooting on wave 1, and they did end up getting 3-5" D.C. South with it, but I just wanted that out of the way because wave two had big dog potential. I think this might have more potential for both then that did if wave one tracks correctly and skirts out quick. But we don't want wave one amplifying too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 the gfs mean has gradually been improving every run so i am happy to see thatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: IF the system is as healthy as the gfs shows I'm not worried about it being forced out south. The bigger problem would be if it's a weaker strung out system like the euro ggem look. Totally agree. When's the last time those areas got 2 feet of snow? And we got nothing? Come on. You know that this thing, if the GFS big storm idea is correct, is coming up the coast and crushing us, and probably others to the north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ensembles have converged on a notsogreat pattern mid month. And by notsogreat I mean snow will be really hard to come by. The troubling piece is the large area of low heights around AK. That's a pac air pump into the conus. A logical way out would be building heights/ridge in the PNA region. Weeklies showed that and the GEFS has hinted a few times. 0z EPS finally went solidly AN temps d11-15 after sending mixed signals for a while. Fingers crossed that we can get on the board before that. Going into late Jan with a shutout stacks the odds greatly against climo+ on the season during non-nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Don't have to worry about getting to climo if you get 2 feet of snow next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Can someone post the 500mb map from today's 12z event? Would appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Can someone post the 500mb map from today's 12z event? Would appreciate it NC is getting destroyed this panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have converged on a notsogreat pattern mid month. And by notsogreat I mean snow will be really hard to come by. The troubling piece is the large area of low heights around AK. That's a pac air pump into the conus. A logical way out would be building heights/ridge in the PNA region. Weeklies showed that and the GEFS has hinted a few times. 0z EPS finally went solidly AN temps d11-15 after sending mixed signals for a while. Fingers crossed that we can get on the board before that. Going into late Jan with a shutout stacks the odds greatly against climo+ on the season during non-nino years. Yup I mentioned this yesterday after looking at the EPS. Really need to root for a PNA ridge, as the AK ridge is going to disappear for a while, and it doesn't look like we will get much if any help in the NA during that period either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ensembles have converged on a notsogreat pattern mid month. And by notsogreat I mean snow will be really hard to come by. The troubling piece is the large area of low heights around AK. That's a pac air pump into the conus. A logical way out would be building heights/ridge in the PNA region. Weeklies showed that and the GEFS has hinted a few times. 0z EPS finally went solidly AN temps d11-15 after sending mixed signals for a while. Fingers crossed that we can get on the board before that. Going into late Jan with a shutout stacks the odds greatly against climo+ on the season during non-nino years. That was always my worry. This shot is gonna have to work cause we're going into another not so great period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.