WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 This might be the everybody wins solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm ok if gfs simply keeps the look of a healthy second wave ejecting from the west into the plains. From there we have a shot. Euro solution is all mucked up even by then with a strung out mess with no hope of doing much coming out at that time and a further north initial wave just to make sure it has no shot. The differences are pretty extreme fairly early on. Get a healthy system coming out and as can do the whole model watching trends thing to the end. If it moves towards the euro idea it's game over. This is pretty much what I've been focusing on since 0z. Just keep a healthy wave intact and we can get the details later. Would be nice if we could get a neutral tilt before the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 May be. It is a hair northwest in this run and the snow is displaced more to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The spacing should provide a little more ridging in between. Looks like a compromise between 0z and 6z. Yea on top of exact location of the shortwave either a stronger short or create a bit more spacing between waves could get the job done too. I would argue the last two are more important then exactly where the system comes in at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looking like the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Watch the heights north of the great lakes. Low heights there are often over done. They are already higher than they were on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Here it comes Yeah, I'm not sure what the people who keep saying it looks like 6z are seeing beyond 129. It's an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Based on the 500 MB vort at 120, it looks a little stronger than 6z.. it looks like the low is closing.. but I dont really know what I am looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para is apparently verifying better @ h5. But that probably doesn't mean much beyond d5. It has overall been somewhat of a mixed bag, but I agree that at the time ranges in play here, it's probably unlikely that it would perform systematically better. And to answer Always in Z's question earlier, yes, it's frozen. The official evaluation period is underway, so it has to be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is more fun than tracking nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 That was a good compromise between 0z/6z. Good run to run consistency in general. Now it's time for the euro to squash our hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 MUCH improved vs 6z..you could see the difference starting at 126 or so. Snowing here at 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: That was a good compromise between 0z/6z. Good run to run consistency in general. Now it's time for the euro to squash our hopes and dreams. I'm don't see that this time. I think this is coming much further north before it's all over. Hopefully not too far. With that sw in the west looking that healthy and that strong, with further spacing from the first wave, the heights in the ne better be as low as advertised or it's coming on up, earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The nearly 3' of snow SW of Richmond is a nice touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: It has overall been somewhat of a mixed bag, but I agree that at the time ranges in play here, it's probably unlikely that it would perform systematically better. And to answer Always in Z's question earlier, yes, it's frozen. The official evaluation period is underway, so it has to be frozen. Thanks... I thought it was frozen, though one point in December I heard a couple of conflicting things on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NC would be closed for a week or 2 if this run verifies. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not sure how it plays out but it's a win to me. From here we have a good shot. And it has room to adjust north a tad looking at h5. Gfs jumps the low south about 100 miles over Texas and that seems a bit fishy. Just looking at the h5 loop so far I like the look and could see room for a slight north adjustment back to something like the 0z look. As it is I think the southern 75% of this forum will like the run. I'll be fringed as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's really a pretty incredible run for N NC, S Central and SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'll say it again... congrats to SE having this storm at 5/6 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Eh, not bad. At least we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NC would be closed for a week or 2 if this run verifies. wow. The new Carolina Crusher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Let's keep this thread open through the Euro, and then I'll start the next one. By then we probably will be north of 50 pages. Not bad, huh? The January long range thread already full on Jan 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 IF the system is as healthy as the gfs shows I'm not worried about it being forced out south. The bigger problem would be if it's a weaker strung out system like the euro ggem look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: NC would be closed for a week or 2 if this run verifies. wow. Bob, DC shuts down for flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not sure how it plays out but it's a win to me. From here we have a good shot. And it has room to adjust north a tad looking at h5. Gfs jumps the low south about 100 miles over Texas and that seems a bit fishy. Just looking at the h5 loop so far I like the look and could see room for a slight north adjustment back to something like the 0z look. As it is I think the southern 75% of this forum will like the run. I'll be fringed as usual we need you to start showing concern over the sharp northern cutoff thats when we know we have an mecs on the way...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 LOL, we've got PSU talking about being fringed. My list from early November is coming together nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: IF the system is as healthy as the gfs shows I'm not worried about it being forced out south. The bigger problem would be if it's a weaker strung out system like the euro ggem look. Yup..we know how this story goes being on the northern extent of heavy precip 5/6 days out. I'm fine with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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