winterymix Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 wow, schnnooww! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 00z GFS para is nuts. 16-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 No. if you want to be crazy and parce details D.C. Southeast flirts with sleet for a while before going back to snow but this is almost a perfect run. Ideal track. The system is energetic but forced due east under the high and confluence at the perfect latitude. This h5 track is pretty classic. But listen to Randy. It's too soon to be celebrating anything. Plus it's one run. We want to see some support and consistency but this was a great run taken by itself. True that its the first op to really show a MECS but guidance has been hinting at this for several days now. The pattern Jan 6-9 as progged has been very favorable and minor adjustments can still lead to huge changes. With that said, we could still crap the bed during that period but I like where we are attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's all downhill from here my friend.What's wrong with a DC-PHL general bullseye at 6-7 days? Nothing can go wrong ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Nice 50-50 low now showing up on the 6z run. 500mb has me salivating: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 06Z GFS is 12+ hours quicker bringing the shortwave through the west as well as digs it a little deeper. Looks like this will be suppressed somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NC and Southern VA is the target for 06z GFS... DC receives maybe a few inches but it is a close miss to the south. Low dug deeper... instead of being in heartland and riding off the coast of NC, it runs the gulf coast and redevelops a low just a tad bit too far off the NC coast for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Plenty of time for this to come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So close this run...tries to go neg and pinch off but just doesn't happen. Skirted. Minor diffs aloft are making for big changes at the surface. Going to be back and forth for a few days imo between a Southern slider, mid Atl special, and an I95 metro hit DC-NYC. Fasten your seatbelts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 06z GFS also gets some light snow into the DC region Thursday night into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice 50-50 low now showing up on the 6z run. 500mb has me salivating: Thats the low from the lead wave and it is literally racing northward through the 50-50 position. Not sure how much it helps when its moving so fast. Works well when its stationary under a block. There is no block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Will be interesting to see the GEFS members. We were very close to a very good solution with this run. An extension of the PV driving deeper into the lakes didn't give this shortwave enough room to turn up. Slow that down a little or it doesn't dig as deep and I think we see that low run up the coast as we see better upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS favors a less suppressed storm track than the op. Snowfall mean is modest but decent, around 2" or so across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS favors a less suppressed storm track than the op. Snowfall mean is modest but decent, around 2" or so across the area. The old GFS had a habit of suppression and I think the newer improved model has that same tendency though not to the same degree. We saw this play out a couple of weeks ago where it had a strung out mess riding across Florida and Georgia in the mid to long range only to eventually verify as a consolidated low off of the outer banks. That being said I don't think suppression will be the issue if things go wrong with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yeah, wow. 0z Para is crazy. Do we know anything about that model?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yeah, wow. 0z Para is crazy. Do we know anything about that model? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's the upgraded version of the GFS, which is still being tested/tweaked/refined before being rolled out formally. That's my understanding, anyway, although I thought it was supposed to be live by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The old GFS had a habit of suppression and I think the newer improved model has that same tendency though not to the same degree. We saw this play out a couple of weeks ago where it had a strung out mess riding across Florida and Georgia in the mid to long range only to eventually verify as a consolidated low off of the outer banks. That being said I don't think suppression will be the issue if things go wrong with this. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice 50-50 low now showing up on the 6z run. 500mb has me salivating: 6z was a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Will be interesting to see the GEFS members. We were very close to a very good solution with this run. An extension of the PV driving deeper into the lakes didn't give this shortwave enough room to turn up. Slow that down a little or it doesn't dig as deep and I think we see that low run up the coast as we see better upper level support.Isnt that PV extension attempting to phase in with our sw? I think we saw the para hinting at this yesterday with it's closed bomb low off the SE coast no? Ala January 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: It's the upgraded version of the GFS, which is still being tested/tweaked/refined before being rolled out formally. That's my understanding, anyway, although I thought it was supposed to be live by now... It's definitely live if an organization is publishing it's data feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's definitely live if an organization is publishing it's data feed. Goes live in May 2017. Still being observed and tweaked. My understanding is it will replace the current gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The differences last night are apparent early on starting around hour 48-60. The biggest difference I see is the interaction our main player is having with a secondary disturbance upstream from the trough. On the 0z run, the energy off the West Coast has slightly more interaction with the disturbance leading to it being held back and slightly stronger at H5 compared to its 6z counter part. This allows for the energy to eject east a little faster, but the consolidation of the energy at 0z carrying through the CONUS helped keep the system not only more robust, but the implications upstream led to the secondary disturbance being stronger, slightly higher height rises through Alaska leading to a push downstream of the area confluence further south, allowing the shortwave to be slightly further south and bombing at lower latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 0z 6z Notice the strength and interaction between the 2 shortwaves. That is the biggest difference to me and of course that lead to a "foul tip" down the line. Fortunately, it isn't a "swing and a miss" as it is still really close to being something good. Just thoughts on the GFS Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFS mean is a far cry from the gfs op at 6z. Very strung out and sheared energy zipping across the relatively fast and flat flow. I dont even see any semblance of a storm on the mean. Maybe a very weak wave just East of the Bahamas Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isnt that PV extension attempting to phase in with our sw? I think we saw the para hinting at this yesterday with it's closed bomb low off the SE coast no? Ala January 2000? At this point there is a good deal of separation between the two to hope for a phase. Not to mention we would want to see that extension much deeper and behind the shortwave. Think that the chances are better and we are better off at this point hoping that the shortwave has room to amplify on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At this point there is a good deal of separation between the two to hope for a phase. Not to mention we would want to see that extension much deeper and behind the shortwave. Think that the chances are better and we are better off at this point hoping that the shortwave has room to amplify on its own. I see it now with the 500mb loop. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Will be interesting to see the GEFS members. We were very close to a very good solution with this run. An extension of the PV driving deeper into the lakes didn't give this shortwave enough room to turn up. Slow that down a little or it doesn't dig as deep and I think we see that low run up the coast as we see better upper level support. I still like to compare apples with apples and in this case that means comparing 0z with the upcoming 12z. I know I know, I've read multiple times on this board there is not any difference between the off runs and the 0z and 12z but it seems to me that there are, especially when we're not locked in yet to a probable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 06Z GEFS has brought no clarity for our possible storm. If anything it has muddied the picture. With all the moving pieces we are seeing and the difficulties the models are having I would not be surprised if this is a case where we do not know where we stand until almost game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Mount Holly in their AFD this morning called the run to run consistency with the GFS "concerning" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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