January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a se/ma special. Big overrunning event followed by a coastal that goes out to sea off the delmarva. Like pd2 but colder and snowier and stuff. 

I agree, Bob.  This (12z EPS) is a way to get both of our subforums on the board (possibly in a big way) and would be a heck of a way to go once into January.  As it stands now, things look great! I just hope we can reel this time period in.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a se/ma special. Big overrunning event followed by a coastal that goes out to sea off the delmarva. Like pd2 but colder and snowier and stuff. 

Why not a hybrid of Jan 96 feb 2003 and Jan 16?  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It was intended.  It's the whiskey and my enthusuiam over the modeled pattern.  It makes one say strange things.

Haha, well, glad my mind isn't the only one slightly gutter enough to catch that! 

[poolz1]

Man! That was a pretty eps run.  The 10-15 5day is a sight ripe with potential.  Get that look in the 5-10 the op runs will be fun..

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a se/ma special. Big overrunning event followed by a coastal that goes out to sea off the delmarva. Like pd2 but colder and snowier and stuff. 

Might be hard pressed to be much colder than PD-II, was in the upper teens for much of that storm. But I hear you, and yeah more snow rather than hours of sleet to cut the total amount! 

[leo1000]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Do you live in Nova scotia? If so, looking for insight in our forum is probably not a good idea. Your climo isn't even close to ours. We definitely don't look for the same things. A -nao is probably bad for your yard more often than not. 

According to this site a negative west based NAO is a good thing for Nova Scotia and other coastal areas. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html

[clueless]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I have never told this to anyone but I love overrunning events.  They can surprise and go longer than expected if set up is right and the moisture feed is solid.  There's I said it

It's okay.  I'll fess up too.  As long as the temps cooperate they are pretty cool.  Less nail biting as well.  

[gymengineer]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why not a hybrid of Jan 96 feb 2003 and Jan 16?  

So that DCA can mix, dry slot, heavy sleet, and dry slot again?  

When I used to draw my own snow total maps for imaginary snowstorms (on blank maps), the three ways I got DC to 30" were: a colder and longer version of PD2, a more east and slightly slower 3/93, and a miracle inverted trough with bullseye placement a-la 3/42. 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why not a hybrid of Jan 96 feb 2003 and Jan 16?  

Throw in Snowmageddon and we've got a deal! Hey if we're talking unicorns, might as well push the limit. 

On topic... nice to hear what the EPS are throwing our way. Hope it holds up as it approaches reality! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

So that DCA can mix, dry slot, heavy sleet, and dry slot again?  

When I used to draw my own snow total maps for imaginary snowstorms (on blank maps), the three ways I got DC to 30" were: a colder and longer version of PD2, a more east and slightly slower 3/93, and a miracle inverted trough with bullseye placement a-la 3/42. 

 

Perhaps more precisely with PD-II, colder mid-levels so we don't get screwed with sleet mixing (sfc was plenty cold), though that's probably what you meant. I wonder what DCA and many others in this area would have gotten if we didn't get mod/hvy sleet most of that Sunday night. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I would pay good money to be able to see snow means for a specific period of time

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I like simple around here. Whatever is easiest and has the lowest bust potential I'm game for. Clippers and overrunning events fit the bill. 

True but overrunning can be heartbreaking depending on where you sit. In this case I have no clue.  South might be better as modeled.  But way far in crazy land

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Perhaps more precisely with PD-II, colder mid-levels so we don't get screwed with sleet mixing. I womder what DCA and many others in this area would have gotten if we didn't get mod/hvy sleet most of that Sunday night. 

True.... but the warm moisture feed of 2/03 during the overrunning phase, pushing us above a foot, made mixing likely. A more modest and all-snow overrunning example is 1/88-- great moderate event especially for DC south and east and still the record event for some parts of the Deep South. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/library/snow/archives/1988snow.htm

http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie eps run. Legit -nao in place d10-15. Cold and snowy. 

We buy and take please

January 5th to January 10th looks like a nice threat period... 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Anyone know where I can see the radar from PDII? Curious

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Anyone know where I can see the radar from PDII? Curious

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03.html

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Perhaps more precisely with PD-II, colder mid-levels so we don't get screwed with sleet mixing (sfc was plenty cold), though that's probably what you meant. I wonder what DCA and many others in this area would have gotten if we didn't get mod/hvy sleet most of that Sunday night. 

We would have got 24-30" which is what places just to our north got. But too much colder and we get less moisture too.  State college only got 18" abc from high ratios. North of there less quickly. 

[PaEasternWX]

18z GEFS looks great.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

18z GEFS looks great.

Agreed. 12z Mean was skewed slightly by a single huge hit. Much more consensus between Day 9-12 on 18z.

[PaEasternWX]

12 out of the 20 members are great.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

12 out of the 20 members are great.

Be careful.. a lot of those are mixed events that wxbell advertises as snow.

[PhineasC]

PD2 was back before NOAA scientists used global weather modification techniques to permanently gimp high pressures. Now a 1040 arctic high parked over Quebec is tossed aside like a rag doll by some scattered showers coming up from TN. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Though it's only been a month, this is the first time that I can recall this winter that a modeled "event" has trended in the right direction for us. I'm talking about overnight Sunday into Monday, and although it doesn't look to be a snowy, it has potential to impact the morning rush on Monday morning.

[yoda]

00z EURO tosses us a bone Day 9 into Day 10... southern slider for now, but is that a 50/50 low showing up late in the run?  Or am I mistaking that for something else?

[mdsnowlover]

Wow 06z gfs artic cold all the way down to Disney and sea world in Orlando, wonder how dolphin land deals with that kind of cold. Air temp rather chilly to be waist deep in water, even with wet suit on, water isn't that warm.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, yoda said:

00z EURO tosses us a bone Day 9 into Day 10... southern slider for now, but is that a 50/50 low showing up late in the run?  Or am I mistaking that for something else?

Careful what you wish for. EPS was a good run overall but there's a lot of misses to the south. I count 18 for D.C. And 23 for me. A couple squash the system totally.  Unlike gefs almost no signal for a west track.  The other half are nice hits. A blend of the gefs and eps (typically a good way to go) actually is a very good look for us. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said:

Wow 06z gfs artic cold all the way down to Disney and sea world in Orlando, wonder how dolphin land deals with that kind of cold. Air temp rather chilly to be waist deep in water, even with wet suit on, water isn't that warm.

Cold but not what we want if you want snow. We're better off with the cold coming across further north and the high being across the north allowing a system to ride along under it. Not good is an arctic shot straight south squashing anything then a system going up west as the cold exits. 

[winterymix]

The next 10+ days show SLP to either Detroit or Maine.   Yawn, snooze.

Cold, dry; warmer/wetter.  This sort of pattern requires a long time to break;

half of January already appears mediocre.  Crystal ball so clouded after Jan 10.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The next 10+ days show SLP to either Detroit or Maine.   Yawn, snooze.

Cold, dry; warmer/wetter.  This sort of pattern requires a long time to break;

half of January already appears mediocre.  Crystal ball so clouded after Jan 10.

I somewhat agree with this. Whenever the transient neutral/negative NAO briefly appears, the SE Ridge vanishes and cold air plows to the Gulf Coast and tries to suppress the storm track. When the SE Ridge pops to help systems come North, the N Atl ridge is nowhere to be found and systems come N but cut West. We are having a real challenge thus far in getting the Atl to work for us. I guess the old saying goes, get the cold first then worry about storms. Pac should work for us (-WPO/-EPO) to provide the cold in the LR anyway. Fingers crossed.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, winterymix said:

The next 10+ days show SLP to either Detroit or Maine.   Yawn, snooze.

Cold, dry; warmer/wetter.  This sort of pattern requires a long time to break;

half of January already appears mediocre.  Crystal ball so clouded after Jan 10.

Maybe take this to the Panic Room. We all know the current pattern is a crappy one that does not favor frozen for this region. The first legit threat window is about 10 days away. Maybe it will be brief, or maybe it wont materialize at all. But it is a pretty damn good look for now, especially on the EPS.