psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Let's lock this baby up and call it a winter Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk If this run verified i agree I'd be fairly satisfied even if that was it, but it is January 1, lots of winter to go. No reason to toss our best climo Jan 20-February 20. But for this storm I'm done wanting to see "improvements" I'll tell the dealer stick and take my money. But it's been trending this way for several runs. Since it started trending away from the gradient type waa system a few days ago then towards something being able to amplify a bit more each run, at least on the gfs. Need to see a move in this direction from the euro soon. The gfs was the first to get the general idea right on several systems back in December though so ok not as hesitant to lean towards it over the euro as I once would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Cmc is close enough at h5. Hopefully the gefs hones in a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: If only that was a 6 hour prog instead of 162. But that's tear worthy right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 How does ukmet look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is close enough at h5. Hopefully the gefs hones in a little. Given all the digital snow the Cmc showed in December I'd rather it be crushing Raleigh right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Given all the digital snow the Cmc showed in December I'd rather it be crushing Raleigh right now anyways. It's a good sign seeing 2 ops sharpen/strengthen the shortwave at about the same point in time. You can see good things happening in the 72-96 hour period so it's not that far out in time. We need ops to key in on a single shortwave with a similar progression so we can get out of the cloudy funk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 CMC looks more like the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think it's a safe bet the GEFS won't provide much clarity Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gfs wants us all to hit climo in a 7 day period. Lol. I do like seeing the highs track across to our north. Fits my thoughts earlier about what the d11-15 ens means may be implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I think it's a safe bet the GEFS won't provide much clarity Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Why would you say that? We're right at prime range for ens to start keying in on a specific shortwave. Might not be tonight but it wouldn't surprise me if the period gains support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gfs wants us all to hit climo in a 7 day period. Lol. I do like seeing the highs track across to our north. Fits my thoughts earlier about what the d11-15 ens means may be implying. Check out the Greenland block at 324 but Alaska Ridge is completely gone Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Why would you say that? We're right at prime range for ens to start keying in on a specific shortwave. Might not be tonight but it wouldn't surprise me if the period gains support Just how it's been going recently. You are right though, we are getting in range. Just hard to believe it won't switch again haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gotta love the below zero lows Tuesday morning after the storm. Just one time please can that happen. Then get hit with a few more inches the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sprawling cold highs to the N and NW. Nice. Workable set up even without any blocking to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Its a good night when the SE forum has a bad nightSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Its a good night when the SE forum has a bad nightSent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkPennsylvania forum***** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Lol. Cold blooded.It works in reverse too. We could be then by this time tomorrow Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gefs liking d6 for sure. Good signal and mixed tracks. Not many southern solutions. Mixed precip is a bigger risk on this run but looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs liking d6 for sure. Good signal and mixed tracks. Not many southern solutions. Mixed precip is a bigger risk on this run but looks pretty good. NW track is the bigger risk. Suppression seems unlikely especially with a more amplified solution and a positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gefs liking d6 for sure. Good signal and mixed tracks. Not many southern solutions. Mixed precip is a bigger risk on this run but looks pretty good. great to see the realm of solutions narrowing - i will take mixed precip problems over cold and drySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At this range, that's a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Very weenie gefs run. Good support for the op on day 6 and brought back the signal for threats in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I have Stormvista but landlord didn't pay the internet bill & he's out of town so I have no access except for certain websites. Can someone post 500mb freebies when they come out? Ecmwf.int has euro maps. They all come out @ 2am. I am hoping we see the EURO gradually trend towards the GFS tonight. The chances of it showing a GFS solution is slim to none, but we'll see.... Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro is suppressed. Close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro is suppressed. Close thoughCame north from the 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The euro is weaker early on with the energy coming into the west. The rest is set from there. The gfs and euro diverge very early on. It was a step in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I can't access anything. Is the EURO focusing on the same wave the GFS is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is weaker early on with the energy coming into the west. The rest is set from there. The gfs and euro diverge very early on. It was a step in the right direction though. That's all I wanted to hear at this point. Just wanted to see a step towards the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I can't access anything. Is the EURO focusing on the same wave the GFS is? There are two differences. Euro is weaker with the energy our west and it still develops wave one very weakly but that runs interference and squashes wave two more. The combo of the two means the whole thing is a weak strung out mess. Overall a baby step towards something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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