psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs looked pretty good though d9. Still a lot of spread on the various waves but overall the run increased the chances of one of them working out in some fashion I think because we had a week of good runs and positive trends when things took a step backwards yesterday many jumped to "it's not gonna snow" mode. Yea it sucked to see a pretty good thread become ambiguous but overall we still have a good solid period with cold and our chances to get on the board at least are still relatively good. And while at first the trend towards more western ridge and eastern trough was a problem as it blew up the west to east waa gradient type threat we had, now it's trended so far in that direction it may open up the possibility of a system to have space to amplify in the eastern trough if the trend continues that way. It's getting close. I still liked the simpler look of before just to get us on the board but if something pops up the coast like the para gfs I'll gladly eat those words 18z was the opposite of 12z. Lower mean overall but a better signal for a storm. The mean dropped about an inch but that's because it totally lost the 3rd threat. So the 4" are from the first two threats vs 5" spead over 16 days. I don't think it's unrelated either. Seems members that have a stronger second wave then have little threat from the next. Makes sense as a more amplified wave day 7-8 would slow things down in the pattern, prevent something from surviving a trip east quickly behind it, and so by the time anything else gets close we have warmed. More amplification of the trough probably also has the counter effect of more ridging when it moves out. But it's a net positive because a better day 5-10 signal trumps a bunch of low prob threats over 16 days imo. Long long range I think it's now time to admit we're facing an unfavorable period likely in the day 12-16 and maybe a bit longer. I do not think it's long lived or a total no hope pattern but we've been bleeding the wrong way for days now in that period and I think the forecast of the mjo to emerge from the COD into some unfavorable phases in about a week might be the reason. Thats a double edged sword though as if that happens it also looks headed towards better phases quickly if it holds together. If it doesn't then the negative impacts fade anyways. Either way I don't see that as a long term problem. There is also enough ridging showing up in the nao region and signs the pna could be headed the right way to believe something could cut through during the period and it might not necessarily be wall to wall crap. But I do think after about a solid week of cold and several threats if any of these shorts can do something, we get a worse look for awhile. If I had to guess I think it's likely by Jan 20 or soon after we get a better look again. It's really like reading the tea leaves that far but what evidence there is argues for it. The natural progression of what we are seeing. The transient nature of patterns so far. The mjo possibly headed towards phase 8/1 by then. The correlation between west qbo and cold enso and more blocking later in winter. The hints at pna help plus just the fact it's unlikely the hostile look lasts that much longer. Law of averages. With some luck we score a good hit early Jan. Then the relax is one week and not that bad. Maybe even get a sloppy mix event in there if we time a system up with a transient high. Then we head back into a good window during our max climo late Jan into feb. if so this could become a fairly decent winter. If unlucky this early January pattern comes and goes with nada, the relax drags 10-14 days and we head into late January still sitting on a goose egg, people get edgy and desperate , at even if we get a good pattern after we're probably looking at a bad winter overall just playing averages at that point. Both options are still equally on the table imo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 of the gfs ensemble members provide 4+" for dca through 192 hours.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, kurtstack said: 7 of the gfs ensemble members provide 4+" for dca through 192 hours. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Let's not forget the discrepancies of the para. (in a good way!) Am I the only one who really likes the output trends from this model?! The previous gfs has been so inconsistent that the differences compared to the para to me shows good promise. 12z para: 12z op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Let's not forget the discrepancies of the para. (in a good way!) Am I the only one who really likes the output trends from this model?! The previous gfs has been so inconsistent that the differences compared to the para to me shows good promise. 12z para: 12z op...that 1052 high to the north of the storm is interestingSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Let's not forget the discrepancies of the para. (in a good way!) Am I the only one who really likes the output trends from this model?! The previous gfs has been so inconsistent that the differences compared to the para to me shows good promise. 12z para: 12z op... I haven't noticed the para being particularly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Canadian ensembles It's a mess... but maybe a workable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven't noticed the para being particularly accurate. Is that the case compared to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a mess... but maybe a workable one. completely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Is that the case compared to the op? Lately I haven't seen any op very accurate at that time range. That's pretty far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 completely agree!I'm more excited that the GEFS significantly improved from 12z to 18z... from 5 members having any snow in a 6 day period to 11, some with good hits. Add an extra day and you get 7 or so solid area wide hits... friendly trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lately I haven't seen any op very accurate at that time range. That's pretty far out there. Besides the nice arctic High placement we need, the para has a system phased right over us while the op has the two waves separated with us in between, so the chances are one of these scenarios would verify better I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm more excited that the GEFS significantly improved from 12z to 18z... from 5 members having any snow in a 6 day period to 11, some with good hits. Add an extra day and you get 7 or so solid area wide hits... friendly trends. Also the gefs mean looks slightly better for temps for the region than its op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 There's not much value in the models until the Tuesday system moves through and sets the pattern. The vorts out west with multiple jet influences won't initialize well until the pattern changing storm/bomb gets into the Canadian maritimes. Until then, expect model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On the 0z GFS, wave out west is stronger vs 18z so far. Not sure of downstream implications yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 That's a funky looking system over the rockies at 114 in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Instantweathermaps shows GFS going nuts in the TV at 135hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On the 0z GFS, wave out west is stronger vs 18z so far. Not sure of downstream implications yetBig change again Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Here it comes. Looks that way to me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just need to hold for 6 days. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9something mb Low over the rockies this run. Lets see what she does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looks like the energy out west is more consolidated and stronger this run than 0z. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: On the 0z GFS, wave out west is stronger vs 18z so far. Not sure of downstream implications yet It can't be bad. I think that's the actual threat btw. The day 4-5 thing is running into way too much hostile flow behind the bombing system in the maritime to have a chance. Sometimes I like seeing the change we need in the short term even if the gfs loses its way later on in the run. Get something to eject out of the Rockies with enough energy while it's still cold and we have a chance. The table is set so to speak. Then we just see what happens. If everything is stuck out west we have no chance. I see the changes as good even if they don't lead to digital snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Ji said: Big change again Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You're about to rejoice in about 2 minutes. Enjoy these next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 132, the system looks like it is coming in at our level instead of GA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gonna be big is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 00z and 18z difference is lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Wow PDI look!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Ji said: The 00z and 18z difference is lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk And that's why nobody here should be happy yet..even if it does go boom. I do, however, think this is becoming a legit threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thump to rain?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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