Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 A solid dusting for lots of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It is too broad. And it's too far east. Exactly. Some minor adjusting and it's game on. We can work with this look tho. Hopefully 0Z suite holds onto this sort of idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 For S&G: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The Para is farther north and gives us snow to rain, so I like where the GFS is at right now. Get the trough to go negative a little sooner or have less of a cold push and we're looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: For S&G: I'm ok with that. Millions of happy kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: For S&G: I'll take the under on 6-8" for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 With the amount of spread on the ops and ensembles we really don't even know which shortwave has potential let alone how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the amount of spread on the ops and ensembles we really don't even know which shortwave has potential let alone how it evolves. Major timing diffs on that energy ejecting from the NW US Coast. That appears to me to be the biggest culprit with the tough forecast during the Jan 6-9 period imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Para isn't even comparable to this run. Totally different players, time frame, setup, result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the amount of spread on the ops and ensembles we really don't even know which shortwave has potential let alone how it evolves. Nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What blows my mind is the threat is as soon as 126h in the Euro and we still have no idea what the setup might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 This ens run could be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I just like the track thru 150 hours....actually LOVE it.....NW Colorado to the far Western OK Panhandle area, down thru Amarillo to Dallas to New Orleans then to the NE GOMex. If that sucker would have tilted and come North...BOOM! Maybe hoping for too much of a good thing but that is a juicy track anyway for early January thru 150 hours! I am going to enjoy this tease for 6 more hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: What blows my mind is the threat is as soon as 126h in the Euro and we still have no idea what the setup might be. Keep in mind that the euro "threat" was also at exactly 126 yesterday as well. It's not getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep in mind that the euro "threat" was also at exactly 126 yesterday as well. It's not getting closer. This is like one of those dreams where you keep trying to run as hard and fast as you can but when you look, you haven't gotten any farther than where you started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What is the GFS doing down in the tropics now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: I assume that it would be in the realm of near-impossibility for any tropical activity to be taking place at this time of year, right? I dont think that is a 'tropical' system by definition, but I was just laughing at how it develops then tries to track it WNW for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is the GFS doing down in the tropics now?? That was on one of the model runs yesterday or the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: I assume that it would be in the realm of near-impossibility for any tropical activity to be taking place at this time of year, right? Well, not necessarily though would be quite rare in the Atlantic basin for sure. It could be a subtropical system perhaps. Trying to recall when the last named tropical system was in the record breaking 2005 season, when we got into the Greek alphabet for names. I think it was late December 2005 or early January 2006. ETA: Just checked and indeed there was tropical storm Zeta that formed Dec. 30, 2005 and dissipated Jan. 6, 2006, and is the longest lived tropical system into January in the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, not necessarily though would be quite rare in the Atlantic basin for sure. It could be a subtropical system perhaps. Trying to recall when the last named tropical system was in the record breaking 2005 season, when we got into the Greek alphabet for names. I think it was late December 2005 or early January 2006. Diddnt we have a hurricane in January last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: I assume that it would be in the realm of near-impossibility for any tropical activity to be taking place at this time of year, right? Hurricane Alex last year formed in mid January, definitely not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ridging out West isn't bad.....just need it to be NOT as broad which flattens the flow downstream and prevents further amplification. Actually really close to being something here. If you loop 500mb some minor adjustments with the ridge out West and the trof axis in the East and this is a bigger potential. Cool run anyway. It will change in 6 hours tho. It's not a linear good bad thing. If we had short wavelengths and enough ridging out west then it's good as it digs the trough sharper to the east and something can bomb up the coast. But if the wavelengths are broad and flat then no ridging out west is better then some as it beats down the se ridge, and in a broad flat trough we actually need the se ridge to force a gradient type waa storm up to our latitude. There is no one size fits all. Right now we're kind of stuck in between what we need. The setups close but there is just enough western ridge to crush the se ridge but not enough to sharpen the trough and allow something to come up that way. We're literally in no mans land. A trend either way would work but given the way it's going maybe at this point more western ridge and a deeper sharper trough is the way to root here. That's been the trend lately. Still a lot of time to see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the amount of spread on the ops and ensembles we really don't even know which shortwave has potential let alone how it evolves. Bingo. But the general pattern is there. The problem is the guidance is ejecting multiple weak shorts out of the west. Most are running into the flat trough and washing out. They can't agree on which if any will survive and find room to amplify at all. Those minor differences create this see saw with surface looks in the 5-10 day period. But their all a product of the overall pattern. We just have to hope something does eject fully with enough energy during that time so we don't waste a pretty good 5 day window. The window could be 7 days depending how fast it breaks down. Everything's split about 50/50 weather there is enough cold left when something comes along as the pattern breaks down around the 10-13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 18z gefs looked pretty good though d9. Still a lot of spread on the various waves but overall the run increased the chances of one of them working out in some fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs looked pretty good though d9. Still a lot of spread on the various waves but overall the run increased the chances of one of them working out in some fashion Surprisingly large number have snow here in the next 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Surprisingly large number have snow here in the next 5-7 days. Sure would be nice to see a trend for the better. Every ens run is on again off again for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sure would be nice to see a trend for the better. Every ens run is on again off again for a few days now. Usually you have a feel where the weather is going over the next 5-7. Right now, I have no idea. I'm traveling to Knoxville Sat morning. No clue if that trip is even going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I mentioned it yesterday and will say it again.....I realize guidance has made improvements over the past 17 years, but damn if this doesn't have that late January 2000 feel to it. Fast flow, energy pieces ejecting out of the West Coast, ridge trying to emerge out West, model mayhem 5-7 days out, different models keying on different shortwaves with drastically different solutions, hints on guidance here and there that something 'could' pop off the SE Coast. I remember being in a similar position back then at this range.....we were saying there were "slight improvements" with each suite while others claimed we were imagining things and the pattern wouldn't allow a storm to come N/NNE off the GA/SC coast. Not calling for any sort of a repeat, but never say never and dont assume anything is off the table, especially at this range with cold air poised to be in place in the NE or at least ready to be tapped and the flow buckling. Any time I see a slp over the GOMex with a buckle in the N Jet over the NE, I pay attention. Our juiciest systems emerge from that area then re-emerge off the SE Coast and head N/NE/NNE. Even without blocking and with a fast mover, the right trajectory of a storm taking that sort of track can often dump a decent amount of precipitation in a short time. While no model is calling for a SECS or MECS, given the trends this season so far, the Jan 6-9 period holds our best potential to date. But as that one guy says, "You can't shovel potential". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Snowlover33 said: Diddnt we have a hurricane in January last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 it is quite encouraging to see the ensembles take a step in the right direction 144 hours out - still a lot of chaos to sort out yet. Hopefully the ops start to show more consistency over the next 48 hours.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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