HighStakes Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah not sure it's the best look for a clipper. Don't you need more of a +PNA signal to really get one of those? We probably would have a better chance of clippers with -Nao and -Ao also. Even if cold overwhelms the pattern at least front will keep diving down from canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looking beyond the cold shot late next week/weekend, no sign of a -NAO on the 12z EPS. Continues hinting at higher heights out west towards the end though, so maybe a rise in the PNA down the line. Looks like the AK ridge breaks down at least for a time. Meanwhile on the Atlantic side, plenty of WA/SE ridging beyond day 10. I will take the glass half full approach. We need change and maybe this is the start of something different in the EPac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Nice closed ULL nuke job on the para. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Big changes out west for the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice closed ULL nuke job on the para. Lol. which hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The changes this run on the GFS at 96 hrs from last few runs are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Blocking usually makes NWP more reliable, not less. Kind of ridiculous how variable the last 48 hours have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Got a feeling GFS is about to bring something vastly different. Shocker, I know. All kinds of changes out west...s/w looks stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: which hour? 210 from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Blocking usually makes NWP more reliable, not less. Kind of ridiculous how variable the last 48 hours have been. It really is something. I kinda like it though. But it is enough to make you wanna pull your hair out a bit. It's not like it's unprecedented, but we have been so used to stuff either sticking in some form or fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Yeah, GFS is brewing up something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: It really is something. I kinda like it though. But it is enough to make you wanna pull your hair out a bit. It's not like it's unprecedented, but we have been so used to stuff either sticking in some form or fashion. This could be a great run for us. But absolutely no trust in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Fwiw this run at 500mb thru 120 hours most closely resembles the 0z Dec 31 GFS run. That run had the NC big hit....we'll see what happens here. No other run since then has looked like the one coming out right now at least in regards to the energy ejecting from the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 For S & G, i did a trend loop on the GFS for the last 4 runs for hour 129...you wanna laugh your ass off, do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fwiw this run at 500mb thru 120 hours most closely resembles the 0z Dec 31 GFS run. That run had the NC big hit....we'll see what happens here. No other run since then has looked like the one coming out right now at least in regards to the energy ejecting from the West Coast. Noticed the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Biggest diff this run vs 0Z 12/31 run is the trof in the East....deeper this run. Gonna be an intersting solution. Another run, a different end result lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Ridge out West stronger too this run (vs the run from 0z 12/31 I am comparing to). Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 At 132h it looks like it could be sending something big our way. What a wildly different solution. I'm beginning to see that this storm is entirely dependent on what crosses the Rockies 90 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The changes this run on the GFS at 96 hrs from last few runs are laughable. No kidding, it's like three sheets to the wind! Strangely, the wild swings make me not quite want to write things off for later this week and just beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 LOL It's all I've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Nobody should have or should be writing off the Jan 6-9 period regardless of the surface features on the op models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Don't think the trof will be sharp/negative enough to get it up to us, but such a vastly different solution and keeps the interest there I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Yeah, looks like I was right...it's a miss to the S and E..but you know what we all say..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Snow chase to Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 It's not the greatest 500mb trof reflection but energy in the base is "trying" to make the tilt go negative....more than I think we've seen thru this point on guidance. Cool solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 People wanted the se ridge beaten down. Well, this is what happens. We need less of the ridge out west too. It's kicking everything east too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: People wanted the se ridge beaten down. Well, this is what happens. We need less of the ridge out west too. It's kicking everything east too far. Ridging out West isn't bad.....just need it to be NOT as broad which flattens the flow downstream and prevents further amplification. Actually really close to being something here. If you loop 500mb some minor adjustments with the ridge out West and the trof axis in the East and this is a bigger potential. Cool run anyway. It will change in 6 hours tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 One thing we've all seen before is that low heights over Quebec/NE often are overdone and don't hang on as long as advertised. That might allow heights to rise along the east coast a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lets see if the 0z run sends this up the coast LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ridging out West isn't bad.....just need it to be NOT as broad which flattens the flow downstream and prevents further amplification. Actually really close to being something here. If you look 500mb some minor adjustments with the ridge out West and the trof axis in the East and this is a bigger potential. Cool run anyway. It will change in 6 hours tho. It is too broad. And it's too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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