ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 One thing is for sure, the GFS and Euro could not disagree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Love how low pressure is just going to sit in the plains for days while we're cold/dry then eject east as the cold finally leaves. Pattern still has potential though even if this run is a kick in the nads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Run is a kick in the nads but it shows lots of potential 2 or 3 times in the day 6+ range. I personally love the megasnow it sends to us 206-212ish just to evaporate right west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Run is a kick in the nads but it shows lots of potential 2 or 3 times in the day 6+ range. I personally love the megasnow it sends to us 206-212ish just to evaporate right west of us. Leftover clipper sometimes works out for us ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 I feel like I'm car shopping. I ain't buying anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lotta shortwaves moving around but nothing real to track beyond the first decent one later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 CMC almost hits us with the second wave. Just need the cold to ease a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I feel like I'm car shopping. I ain't buying anything. Why would you? Good or bad, it'll be gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lotta shortwaves moving around but nothing real to track beyond the first decent one later this week. I have even less of a clue about what I'm looking at than I normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 January is an unparalleled disaster after this cold shot, starting around 1/10 or 1/11 according to ECMWF for mid atlantic. I expect to see lots and lots of bridge jumping winter cancel posts starting the next day or two. Did anyone here really expect 4 straight > avg snow winters here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I feel like I'm car shopping. I ain't buying anything. Yup - feel like it is the end of year sale and the bait and switch tactics are in full swing. The car advertised was "sold" yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 LOL, one of the models almost gives us a light event. Sounds like a promising period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lol that system day 8-12 has to be the biggest tease in history. Hangs around a week in several forms and just manages to avoid any significant snow over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxw said: January is an unparalleled disaster after this cold shot, starting around 1/10 or 1/11 according to ECMWF for mid atlantic. I expect to see lots and lots of bridge jumping winter cancel posts starting the next day or two. Did anyone here really expect 4 straight > avg snow winters here? A big cluster of the EPS have snow day 10-15. But thanks for playing pick up your consolation prize on your way out the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, wxw said: January is an unparalleled disaster after this cold shot, starting around 1/10 or 1/11 according to ECMWF for mid atlantic. I expect to see lots and lots of bridge jumping winter cancel posts starting the next day or two. Did anyone here really expect 4 straight > avg snow winters here? You'll be able to watch the jumpers from the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The differences between the Euro and GFS along the Oregon coast as soon as 72-hours in are amazing. From there things just...diverge. At least the Euro has the advantage of looking like its an evolution of its 0Z rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 700mb rh on day 5 euro suggests some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Guess not. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro with a nearish miss at 134. Just suppressed with it.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 As Ender said above, huge differences between euro and gfs very early on out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Interesting afternoon AFD from LWX re long range... states that ensembles vary from being dry to having moderately heavy precipitation event Thurs into Friday and the OPs GFS and EURO are swinging back and forth like a pendulum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Interesting afternoon AFD from LWX re long range... states that ensembles vary from being dry to having moderately heavy precipitation event Thurs into Friday and the OPs GFS and EURO are swinging back and forth like a pendulum Gfs is more like Elaine's dance moves on Seinfeld Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Euro with a nearish miss at 134. Just suppressed with it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you call 500 miles nearish, ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 If you call 500 miles nearish, okAt this lead time and how models have been moving, I'd say nearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Was looking at the ensembles in the SE forum. Only one shut out member for us through 384. Just thought I'd mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 It sure would do everyone a lot of good if we can get on the board with something. Anything. Maybe crack an advisory level event. Difficult to make much assessment in the next couple weeks but I'm not convinced that we'll stay shut out in that time. I don't know how well the upcoming flow pattern would support it, but maybe we can score a clipper in there perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Was looking at the ensembles in the SE forum. Only one shut out member for us through 384. Just thought I'd mention it. This mornings gefs was ok but not as good as the snow plots and mean would lead. It's back to an example of a false positive. Even though the mean is 5-6" about what's it's been lately it's now spread out evenly over 3 threats. Day 5-6, 7-8, and 10-13. The problem is we aren't in the highest impact zone for any. If you take each threat individually the majority of the members miss. The first two threats are mostly misses to the southeast and the last a slight majority miss to the northwest (that's actually the best threat right now if something ejects quickly enough before the cold erodes). Up until now the cold has been over estimated but this week it has trended stronger to the point we're looking at a cold dry stretch possibly. If that trend continues that day 10 threat could become a better look. Still too far out. The 5.5" mean comes from the outliers that manage to either fringe us or the couple members that offer a flush hit from one of the waves. So they cobble together a good looking average but each system taken as an individual is likely to fail. That said it's not total doom, just because a similar scenario failed in December doesn't guarantee the same result. Having multiple low prob chances is better then having one. Given enough chances eventually you tend to get lucky. So I'm not poo pooing the period totally just saying today's 5-6" mean is not as good a look as a couple days ago with the same number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: It sure would do everyone a lot of good if we can get on the board with something. Anything. Maybe crack an advisory level event. Difficult to make much assessment in the next couple weeks but I'm not convinced that we'll stay shut out in that time. I don't know how well the upcoming flow pattern would support it, but maybe we can score a clipper in there perhaps? Youre right. We need to break the ice by the 10th or else it will start to get very frustrating. Things still could turn out very good but it's a coin flip now. A clipper would be totally acceptable but there doesn't seem to be a strong signal for one so hopefully something can just pop up unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Youre right. We need to break the ice by the 10th or else it will start to get very frustrating. Things still could turn out very good but it's a coin flip now. A clipper would be totally acceptable but there doesn't seem to be a strong signal for one so hopefully something can just pop up unexpected. Yeah not sure it's the best look for a clipper. Don't you need more of a +PNA signal to really get one of those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah not sure it's the best look for a clipper. Don't you need more of a +PNA signal to really get one of those? Yes the flow is too flat to really get something to dig down this far from Canada which is the classic clipper. What we're looking at is a few day window where we need something to ride east along the baroclinoc boundary and amplify enough to create enough waa lift. After that we want something to eject fast from the west as the pattern relaxes and hope there is a high still hanging around so we either get a front thump on a west track or force it to miller b transfer under us. Clippers aren't really a threat in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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