January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[ErinInTheSky]

Yup. I like the Euro solution, not because it's a lot of snow but because it's showing snow in a shortish timeframe. Snow at 126h on the Euro, even if light, makes me happy.

 

GFS looks like it's got an ok system too in the mid to long ranges

[usedtobe]

Thought I'd offer an (Sunday Morning) update on our Jan 6 through 9 window for getting snow or winter weather. It still exists but the details of what might happen remain murky as the models still have not latched onto a consensus forecast.

The models have really jumped around in handling the various waves that could impact us. Last night's European now has light snow on the morning of the 6th but has temperatures marginal and rising enough that the snow could change to rain during the day. It's forecast 24 hours ago had the system suppressed well to our south with no snow. The Canadian model last night also liked that idea of snow on the 6th but was colder resulting in all snow (if it were correct, a big if).

Yesterday's GFS had the cold air plunging so far south we were left high and dry. Last night's 06Z run still has the 6th dry as the cold air comes in but then has a snowstorm to ice storm late on the 8th as the cold air starts exiting the region. it's a stronger wave with an almost miller b look with more precipitation than either the European or Canadian model are showing on the 6th. The Euro has no such storm on the 8th. The models can't agree on which wave if any will bring us precipitation during that period.

Welcome to chaos. The bottom line is the cold air being in place with a front to our south is a period always worth monitoring and provides a window for getting winter weather but the window remains cloudy. It's impossible to say whether we'll see snow or not. The models imply there is still the possibility of snow sometime in that period but it is equally likely that the storm or storms will be suppressed to the south

[BristowWx]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Lol massive change with 6z gfs. Snowy next Sunday. 00z had nothing in same time frame

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That could be a decent event.  Ground should be cold

[Wonderdog]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Lol massive change with 6z gfs. Snowy next Sunday. 00z had nothing in same time frame

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Just more uncertainty with each model run. Have to get within four days to get a concensus. 

[BristowWx]

Watching the models change is fun at least.  Beats seeing a locked in SE ridge every 6 hours.  It may not break in our favor but hope is still alive.  I've been looking more at the 500 maps and starting to really gain better understanding.  Kind of like learning to drive on a stick shift.  

[poolz1]

Talking fantasy land but the 06z gefs are going wild with a -NAO in the LR.  Still learning but how, even with a -PNA, is the ridge in the east so robust?  I would think things would be forced under that block and heights would be lower in the east.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

Thought I'd offer an (Sunday Morning) update on our Jan 6 through 9 window for getting snow or winter weather. It still exists but the details of what might happen remain murky as the models still have not latched onto a consensus forecast.

The models have really jumped around in handling the various waves that could impact us. Last night's European now has light snow on the morning of the 6th but has temperatures marginal and rising enough that the snow could change to rain during the day. It's forecast 24 hours ago had the system suppressed well to our south with no snow. The Canadian model last night also liked that idea of snow on the 6th but was colder resulting in all snow (if it were correct, a big if).

Yesterday's GFS had the cold air plunging so far south we were left high and dry. Last night's 06Z run still has the 6th dry as the cold air comes in but then has a snowstorm to ice storm late on the 8th as the cold air starts exiting the region. it's a stronger wave with an almost miller b look with more precipitation than either the European or Canadian model are showing on the 6th. The Euro has no such storm on the 8th. The models can't agree on which wave if any will bring us precipitation during that period.

Welcome to chaos. The bottom line is the cold air being in place with a front to our south is a period always worth monitoring and provides a window for getting winter weather but the window remains cloudy. It's impossible to say whether we'll see snow or not. The models imply there is still the possibility of snow sometime in that period but it is equally likely that the storm or storms will be suppressed to the south

Thanks, Wes. I miss your CWG updates and always appreciate you taking the time to give us your thoughts.

Happy New Year!

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Talking fantasy land but the 06z gefs are going wild with a -NAO in the LR.  Still learning but how, even with a -PNA, is the ridge in the east so robust?  I would think things would be forced under that block and heights would be lower in the east.

That -NAO does nothing for us because it's just one huge heat ridge as depicted.  Look at the resulting temps in my map below.  What we want is a trough (blue) south of Greenland in response to the ridge in Greenland.

[BristowWx]

Only we can turn a -NAO into AN temps.  Gotta make you laugh...and drink heavily

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Talking fantasy land but the 06z gefs are going wild with a -NAO in the LR.  Still learning but how, even with a -PNA, is the ridge in the east so robust?  I would think things would be forced under that block and heights would be lower in the east.

 

That type of look has been on the ensembles for quite a few days now. The implications of a mean look like that are a continuation of deep troughs/cold dropping into the west. The -NAO does have a positive effect though. If the look is right you can most likely expect high pressure centers to pass over or north of us. Highs would get forced under the block but strong lows would still come with NW track problems. Even though it looks warmish, in reality there would be cold shots. There would also be snow chances with CAD and waves riding boundaries. It's not a typical eastern ridge look where the most likely outcome is HP passing SE off the coast and setting up strong return flow. 

If you have wxbell, look at the EPS meteograms. It's not warm in the long range. 

[usedtobe]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thanks, Wes. I miss your CWG updates and always appreciate you taking the time to give us your thoughts.

Happy New Year!

Thanks!

[Bob Chill]

Mitch, I don't think the panels you are posting is a fair depiction. Yes, at the end of the GEFS run it shows AN temps but it is transient. Also, d11-15 and d12-16 are BN on the means. It's not a great look. Don't get me wrong. But saying it's an eastern ridge blowtorch is misleading. It's not a static warm east pattern. 

[Ender]

31 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Talking fantasy land but the 06z gefs are going wild with a -NAO in the LR.  Still learning but how, even with a -PNA, is the ridge in the east so robust?  I would think things would be forced under that block and heights would be lower in the east.

That strong positive anomaly north of Hawaii is problematic. That's probably, technically, a neutral EPO at that timeframe, but for all practical purposes it might as well be positive. Move that positive anomaly up into the GOA and move those negative anomalies that are south and SW of Hawaii and you'd be all set. 

Keep in mind that you're looking at an ensemble mean (I think). Some of the members could be radically different, and while the mean is the "safest" forecast for 8 - 14 days, it will not verify verbatim. It'll probably just be closer to reality than any of the ensemble members were. 

Key points from this NA view would be: 

1. Multiple members agree on a strong positive anomaly over southern Greenland, OR a few members have a remarkably strong anomaly over southern GL while he other members are "all over the place". 
2. It would seem that there's somewhat less, tho not necessarily low, confidence of the other anomaly centers.

It wouldn't surprise me if you have 75% of the members showing a strong positive over southern GL with 50% of the members showing moderately high heights along the E US, 25% showing neutral to negative anomalies and 25% showing strong negatives. Likewise, but inverse, for CONUS West. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That type of look has been on the ensembles for quite a few days now. The implications of a mean look like that are a continuation of deep troughs/cold dropping into the west. The -NAO does have a positive effect though. If the look is right you can most likely expect high pressure centers to pass over or north of us. Highs would get forced under the block but strong lows would still come with NW track problems. Even though it looks warmish, in reality there would be cold shots. There would also be snow chances with CAD and waves riding boundaries. It's not a typical eastern ridge look where the most likely outcome is HP passing SE off the coast and setting up strong return flow. 

If you have wxbell, look at the EPS meteograms. It's not warm in the long range. 

He picked the 384hr map. At that point, the warmth has returned in response to the ridge from Greenland south into the conus. No matter.  None of it will be right in the end.  Lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Mitch, I don't think the panels you are posting is a fair depiction. Yes, at the end of the GEFS run it shows AN temps but it is transient. Also, d11-15 and d12-16 are BN on the means. It's not a great look. Don't get me wrong. But saying it's an eastern ridge blowtorch is misleading. It's not a static warm east pattern. 

I was writing my post above when you wrote yours!

[Bob Chill]

Here's a visual of what I was trying to say in my posts. The GEFS mean 12-16 and 5 day MSLP panels show exactly what I'm talking about:

 

 

 

[poolz1]

@mitchnick @Bob Chill @Ender  Thanks for the responses.  Much appreciated....  Off to FedEx....Go Skins!

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ender said:

That strong positive anomaly north of Hawaii is problematic. That's probably, technically, a neutral EPO at that timeframe, but for all practical purposes it might as well be positive. Move that positive anomaly up into the GOA and move those negative anomalies that are south and SW of Hawaii and you'd be all set. 

Keep in mind that you're looking at an ensemble mean (I think). Some of the members could be radically different, and while the mean is the "safest" forecast for 8 - 14 days, it will not verify verbatim. It'll probably just be closer to reality than any of the ensemble members were. 

Key points from this NA view would be: 

1. Multiple members agree on a strong positive anomaly over southern Greenland, OR a few members have a remarkably strong anomaly over southern GL while he other members are "all over the place". 
2. It would seem that there's somewhat less, tho not necessarily low, confidence of the other anomaly centers.

It wouldn't surprise me if you have 75% of the members showing a strong positive over southern GL with 50% of the members showing moderately high heights along the E US, 25% showing neutral to negative anomalies and 25% showing strong negatives. Likewise, but inverse, for CONUS West. 

Looks like fairly good consensus for ridging poking into GL somewhere. Some have it east and others push into the Davis straight. All in all it's not a good pattern obviously but it's far from a disaster. Looking at the spread indicates pretty much "normal" winter weather around here in general. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

Thought I'd offer an (Sunday Morning) update on our Jan 6 through 9 window for getting snow or winter weather. It still exists but the details of what might happen remain murky as the models still have not latched onto a consensus forecast.

The models have really jumped around in handling the various waves that could impact us. Last night's European now has light snow on the morning of the 6th but has temperatures marginal and rising enough that the snow could change to rain during the day. It's forecast 24 hours ago had the system suppressed well to our south with no snow. The Canadian model last night also liked that idea of snow on the 6th but was colder resulting in all snow (if it were correct, a big if).

Yesterday's GFS had the cold air plunging so far south we were left high and dry. Last night's 06Z run still has the 6th dry as the cold air comes in but then has a snowstorm to ice storm late on the 8th as the cold air starts exiting the region. it's a stronger wave with an almost miller b look with more precipitation than either the European or Canadian model are showing on the 6th. The Euro has no such storm on the 8th. The models can't agree on which wave if any will bring us precipitation during that period.

Welcome to chaos. The bottom line is the cold air being in place with a front to our south is a period always worth monitoring and provides a window for getting winter weather but the window remains cloudy. It's impossible to say whether we'll see snow or not. The models imply there is still the possibility of snow sometime in that period but it is equally likely that the storm or storms will be suppressed to the south

Great post and happy new year Wes!

It's a tricky period coming up. Mixed signals galore. It's a purgatory pattern. Not a shutout and nothing classic to make things easier than normal. Seems like the EPS keys in on 2 chances (7-9th and 11th-13th). Member plots as usual this year show way to much spread to even guess. "Cloudy" is a perfect description. Hopefully something pops and holds in the med range. 

[Ender]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like fairly good consensus for ridging poking into GL somewhere. Some have it east and others push into the Davis straight. All in all it's not a good pattern obviously but it's far from a disaster. Looking at the spread indicates pretty much "normal" winter weather around here in general. 

Where's that from? Most the member panels I've found on line are too blurry to read well. 

Looking at those 21 I only see a single member with an impressive SE ridge. That's certainly good. Two have very strong SW US negatives, tho one is clearly transient. Several are at least hinting toward a full-latitude long wave ridge somewhere between the west coast and Rockies. If I'm reading things right only one member (06), has a right and well consolidated PV while the others have various permutations of split/multiple? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like fairly good consensus for ridging poking into GL somewhere. Some have it east and others push into the Davis straight. All in all it's not a good pattern obviously but it's far from a disaster. Looking at the spread indicates pretty much "normal" winter weather around here in general. 

 

In other words...meh! 

Joking, for the most part.  Looked through the past couple of GFS runs recently, and yeah, it's not exactly a great pattern but not a disaster either.  Perhaps it's something we can work with now and then especially heading into the coldest period for climo temperatures this month.  The impression I get is a highly transient, changing pattern; with perhaps the GL ridge and somewhat negative PNA being the most "stable" features.  Either that or it's just plain chaos and uncertainty!

(ETA:  Oh, and a Happy New Year to all, by the way!)

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ender said:

Where's that from? Most the member panels I've found on line are too blurry to read well. 

Looking at those 21 I only see a single member with an impressive SE ridge. That's certainly good. Two have very strong SW US negatives, tho one is clearly transient. Several are at least hinting toward a full-latitude long wave ridge somewhere between the west coast and Rockies. If I'm reading things right only one member (06), has a right and well consolidated PV while the others have various permutations of split/multiple? 

PSU ewall site. Has great member output. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

 

It's a weird period coming up. Not too long ago, late this week had the same configuration on the means as the current 11-15 day period mean. I think it's probably safe to say that the current pattern later this week will probably continue. Coldest anomalies in the west first but the air masses do make it east without getting shunted NE. I'm honestly not concerned at all about some big static ridge in the east shutting us out. 

[Wonderdog]

Looks like better digging in mid part of the country at 500 at 96.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Talking fantasy land but the 06z gefs are going wild with a -NAO in the LR.  Still learning but how, even with a -PNA, is the ridge in the east so robust?  I would think things would be forced under that block and heights would be lower in the east.

Your seeing a mean that washes out details. It's likely that look is from transient ridging but then systems being forced under. That's what the individual members have been showing. Overall warm over the period but many manage a snowstorm during it. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Slight miss on the first wave


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[ErinInTheSky]

Cold air much further south at 120.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS is close.  That energy in Montana ends up creating a storm but it's too far east and thus the storm is off the coast.  I think that's because the ridge in the west kicks it east instead of allowing it to drop down far enough west.  If the ridge is flat, like the euro, we'd probably get a light event. See below.

BTW, in its last three runs, gfs has placed that piece of vorticity in eastern Montana, then central ND, now back to central Montana at the same time frame.

 

[eurojosh]

6z para looks pretty good just after truncation.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

6z para looks pretty good just after truncation.

We need something inside 7 days.  Probably 4 to feel good about it.

[Wonderdog]

Big differences at 500 at hour 156 nation-wide, especially out west. What it means is anyone's guess.