WhiteoutMD Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 . JMASent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure what the difference is that the models are seeing. I know these aren't the favored models but the NAVGEM is a rainer it appears with the slp to WV then redevelops off VA Capes....the JMA is to W NC then redevelops near Hatteras and heads NNE/NE. CMC wasnt horrible with a light event to get many on the board. Hard to tell on TT, but the NAV looks like a start as snow to frozen. Heights support snow and then looks to be a little CAD signature. The JMA looks like a decent little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 When we start pulling out the jma and navgem it's a sign things have taken a wrong turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 When we start pulling out the jma and navgem it's a sign things have taken a wrong turn. Still time, plenty of time actually, to right this ship. Besides, it isn't a done deal until the CRAS is within range and pulled out as a last straw :-D ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When we start pulling out the jma and navgem it's a sign things have taken a wrong turn. The past 24 hours boost your faith in the gfs and euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The past 24 hours has definitely boosted my faith that our chances for snow have greatly diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So GFS/Euro/UK vs NAVGEM/JMA/CMC? Not sure that's a fair fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The past 24 hours has definitely boosted my faith that our chances for snow have greatly diminished. Exactly why nothing can be dismissed. Oops, misread your post. Regardless, I don't think I'm going to jump this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So GFS/Euro/UK vs NAVGEM/JMA/CMC? Not sure that's a fair fight. So GFS/Euro/UK vs. Justin Berk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So GFS/Euro/UK vs NAVGEM/JMA/CMC? Not sure that's a fair fight. It's too early to give up in a fast flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's too early to give up in a fast flow pattern. Sorry Snow88, nothing personal, but this the MA forum. When we need rational thinking, we turn to JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So GFS/Euro/UK vs NAVGEM/JMA/CMC? Not sure that's a fair fight. Give the navgem team semi automatic weapons and the euro some foam pool noodles and maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z gfs very similar with the vort digging in the mw d5-6. Hopefully it turns into a light event for us. Just a measly inch or 2 on cold ground would boost things around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The past 24 hours boost your faith in the gfs and euro? If the changes they picked up on are accurate from 7 days out I don't see why this would be a model failure. When I first really got into this in the 90s anything past 72 hours was total WAG. Now we analyze day 8 storms. If they picked up on a change a week out that's pretty good. Plus we don't sample every inch of the atmosphere so the models have to initialize on a lot of assumptions and estimations. Garbage in garbage out. I'm not in the camp that trashes the models. I think it's an amazing achievement they are as good as they are. Plus I don't feel the need to have them 100% accurate. Leave some mystery. The next time a snow pops up 3 days out suddenly we won't hear complaints about model inaccuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Don't throw in the towel yet. GFS moves toward Euro for Thur/Fri. Could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: If the changes they picked up on are accurate from 7 days out I don't see why this would be a model failure. When I first really got into this in the 90s anything past 72 hours was total WAG. Now we analyze day 8 storms. If they picked up on a change a week out that's pretty good. Plus we don't sample every inch of the atmosphere so the models have to initialize on a lot of assumptions and estimations. Garbage in garbage out. I'm not in the camp that trashes the models. I think it's an amazing achievement they are as good as they are. Plus I don't feel the need to have them 100% accurate. Leave some mystery. The next time a snow pops up 3 days out suddenly we won't hear complaints about model inaccuracy I'm not complaining about model inaccuracy, but when they jump completely off the planet in one run you have to wonder about what's going on. Now the gfs with some pretty substantial h5 changes compared to 12z and more in line with the euro which was quite a bit different than its 0z run. Its fine if you think we've seen the final nail, but I'm in the camp of we aren't any closer to knowing what might happen today than we were yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm close to putting a nail in a big storm fri-sat next week. The ingredients have mostly vanished in the med range so unlikely to come back. I'm still hoping for a light event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm not complaining about model inaccuracy, but when they jump completely off the planet in one run you have to wonder about what's going on. Now the gfs with some pretty substantial h5 changes compared to 12z and more in line with the euro which was quite a bit different than its 0z run. Its fine if you think we've seen the final nail, but I'm in the camp of we aren't any closer to knowing what might happen today than we were yesterday at this time. Another time completely but there have been some analogues tossed around irt 2000. And this wave coming thru Thursday-Friday is eerily reminiscent of late January 2000 imho. There was a similar setup this range with a few waves traversing the nation embedded in a fast flow. As we got shorter lead time, there were more signals that the wrong wave was being keyed in on by most models. 36 hours prior it became clearer that a storm was going to bomb off the SC coast. Again, different setup here but similar in that hits were shown a week prior, all models (I think at that time it was the MRF, NGP, and Euro) lost the storm to suppression 5-6 days out but still had some unsettled weather showing up, then when AVN and ETA got into range it was game on. Similar area (off SC on Jan 5) as 2000 also. Not calling for a repeat AT ALL....I just saw analogues to that year and now see a slp in the same spot and the GFS trying to inch closer to the coast. Meh, thinking too much...wont happen but fun to remember those past surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm not complaining about model inaccuracy, but when they jump completely off the planet in one run you have to wonder about what's going on. Now the gfs with some pretty substantial h5 changes compared to 12z and more in line with the euro which was quite a bit different than its 0z run. Its fine if you think we've seen the final nail, but I'm in the camp of we aren't any closer to knowing what might happen today than we were yesterday at this time. I misread your post, my bad. I don't think it's a done deal but our chances are lower today then yesterday. The models will continue to bounce around through the permutations of a difficult pattern but at least with them we have a general idea of what things will look like. Without them we wouldn't (except for Tenman who obviously doesn't need them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Silly gfs tries to pop a 2nd low very late. I think the model has no clue what wave to focus on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 500 panels look like a digging NS vort late Sun and you think it would produce something. It does look different than 12z so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I misread your post, my bad. I don't think it's a done deal but our chances are lower today then yesterday. The models will continue to bounce around through the permutations of a difficult pattern but at least with them we have a general idea of what things will look like. Without them we wouldn't (except for Tenman who obviously doesn't need them). Sure, I'm with you. The models are incredible. Right now, for whatever reason, the upper level pattern is really jumpy past about 4 days. I don't have any hopes that we return to the solution of yesterday's Euro but we might return to the notion of the Friday storm. If anyone remembers, originally the storm was modeled to come in on Friday but kept getting pushed out in time. The reason I remember is that I have to travel on Sat and was glad to see the brunt would come on Friday. I think over the next couple of days we will see the model mayhem calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 If we want to hang on something this gfs run was close to popping something good. There is a disconnect at H5 and surface on the day 8 storm. Notice the lower pressures split between the low off the mid Atlantic and the low off the southeast coast. The better h5 support would be for the one east if us. If the system is more consolidated at that location with a pretty good track on the vort there is room for that to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 This is pretty amazing. Don't know if this is where we are headed or not. The first two images are from Tuesday's 12z run and are for Thurs 6z. Fast forward about 30 hours and the next two images are fro Fri morning from the latest GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 On 12/29/2016 at 5:46 PM, stormtracker said: I am not ready to give up.12z GFS para looked good and the japanese ensembles looked fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I am not ready to give up.12z GFS para looked good and the japanese ensembles looked fantastic That's yesterday's para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: That's yesterday's para dosent matter. Its still the latest para run that we know of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Relax e3 got this figured out! Happy New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS looks better than 12z. A few miss to the south but still plenty of time to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Relax e3 got this figured out! Happy New Years. With a ton of it by day 18. All in all, 18z was positive, bot op and ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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