BTRWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not really. Psu's concern is that we ridge out on the heels of the deep trough. But transient in nature. Just pointing out that the window may be shorter. Otoh- ensembles are starting to hint at a +pna making a comeback. 12z Gefs continues the trend. The good thing about Jan is it has the most wiggle room for borderline events. We don't need all 8 cylinders firing. It can be a forgiving month unless a shutout pattern sets up. No signs of that anywhere I'm surprised how pessimistic you sound today. Some of the signals don't look so bad I don't think. We still have a long way to go before anything, but this eps ensemble scenario from yesterday would be a juicy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Storm or not, really can't ask for better timing for a colder pattern to kick in. We all know what our wheelhouse is...early jan to mid feb. The problem is it's been kinda dry. That's my biggest concern...actually getting a storm. Cold/dry is something we do exceptionally well here and so far that's kind of been the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The long range models are loosing the good look? What bob said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I'm surprised how pessimistic you sound today. Some of the signals don't look so bad I don't think. We still have a long way to go before anything, but this eps ensemble scenario from yesterday would be a juicy one! I'm not pessimistic at all. All I did was acknowledge the fact that the signal for a amplified juicy storm next week has shrunk considerably. It's still a week away but the latest guidance isnt nearly as rosy as just a day or 2 ago. Other than that we are clearly moving into the best winter pattern we've seen so far and it doesn't look like a quick hit and back to crap so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not pessimistic at all. All I did was acknowledge the fact that the signal for a amplified juicy storm next week has shrunk considerably. It's still a week away but the latest guidance isnt nearly as rosy as just a day or 2 ago. Other than that we are clearly moving into the best winter pattern we've seen so far and it doesn't look like a quick hit and back to crap so far. I was a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 For those of us who don't have any subscription access anywhere, weatheronline.uk has some of the best ensemble maps to compare trends using contours. Excellent temperature trends here! For 0z January 8th... Thurs 0z run: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=201612290000&VAR=t85p&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Fri 0z run: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201612300000%26HH%3D198 Sat: 0z run from last night: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201612310000%26HH%3D186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Don't like the HP location at 156hrs on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Well I'll be back next week I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 I think some are down but shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro has light snow at 138Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 huge sprawling high over deep south at 144 - very cold dry look on euroSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Not much different than the 0zSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not much different than the 0z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Don't tell that to the se forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't tell that to the se forum Or the NYC and New England forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The vort on the euro @ hr 120-132 could easily turn into a light event if the look holds. Other than that it's crush city for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The vort on the euro @ hr 120-132 could easily turn into a light event if the look holds. Other than that it's crush city for the time being. I was glad to see that. Get something inside 5 days and I'll be happy. Maybe it can trend better. At this point, I'm not sure anything is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 At least the Euro still shows SOMETHING. Not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I was glad to see that. Get something inside 5 days and I'll be happy. Maybe it can trend better. At this point, I'm not sure anything is impossible. It really won't take much. If the closed ULL north of ME follows the seasonal trend in the med range and moves out a little quicker then the vort diving down from the rockies has a chance to amplify a little more before it's on our doorstep. That's the only thing that I see keeping it from doing that. Just a little too late getting some amp in front. It won't be anything fancy either way. No gulf to work with all all northern stream so it would be similar to a clipper as far as upside potential goes. Like you said, it's right at d5-6 so not a ghost chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My take is that there is no guidance beyond a few days that you can depend on. Even the ens took a wild turn in the past 24. The logical result of this is that there's no reason to give up on next weekend. Still a long way out. Couldn't have said it better myself. You beat this drum all the time, but never is it more apt than right now when even ensembles are making huge changes. I realize people enjoy the hobby and love to analyze the runs (and some of us enjoy reading it), and it's fun to imagine that fantasy storms will come to fruition, but there can't be any confidence in terms of what they mean for reasonable weather this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Couldn't have said it better myself. You beat this drum all the time, but never is it more apt than right now when even ensembles are making huge changes. I realize people enjoy the hobby and love to analyze the runs (and some of us enjoy reading it), and it's fun to imagine that fantasy storms will come to fruition, but there can't be any confidence in terms of what they mean for reasonable weather this far out. We've got the best people in here who can analyze patterns and what the ensembles are showing but even they need consistent guidance to rely upon. Right now the guidance is jumpy and that makes this stuff hard. Our people, and I ain't one of them, can look at ensembles and tell how they might be wrong. That's good stuff. Wes can look at a pattern and know how it likely is off and in what way. Amazes the hell out of me how he does that. Bob and PSU are great as well. When I see one of those guys panick, I'll get worried. Right now, I think we look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So much for the Greenland block. The EPO will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Amped said: So much for the Greenland block. The EPO will be rockin I'm sure a 10 day anomaly map is money. I'll go see if I can find some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm sure a 10 day anomaly map is money. I'll go see if I can find some. I would think the blocking would produce a lot more cold over North America than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Amped said: I would think the blocking would produce a lot more cold over North America than shown. Those low heights off the coast of BC have been so consistent. Not sure when I've seen that. If you look at the height lines and not the colors, that's a strange looking configuration. 10 day though so likely not real accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those low heights off the coast of BC have been so consistent. Not sure when I've seen that. If you look at the height lines and not the colors, that's a strange looking configuration. 10 day though so likely not real accurate. That AK block looks almost in a perfect spot, which would likely result in a cold reload soon thereafter. So not all bad even if it is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 EPS shows a bit more opportunity over the next 10 days compared to 0z. Not by much and nothing exciting but overall the ens indicate things being a bit more active than the op's squash city look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS shows a bit more opportunity over the next 10 days compared to 0z. Not by much and nothing exciting but overall the ens indicate things being a bit more active than the op's squash city look. I felt the Thurs/Fri event picked up quite a bit of support on this run. Probably 35-40% have it. We seem to be on the northern extent on most but that's ok. Through 10 days I though the snow mean had a much more encouraging look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS shows a bit more opportunity over the next 10 days compared to 0z. Not by much and nothing exciting but overall the ens indicate things being a bit more active than the op's squash city look. WinterWxLuvr will curse me, but the CFS2 monthly precip forecasts are usually pretty good when it shows way above or way below. Below is its January forecast, that has steadily gotten wetter over the past 2+ weeks. Fwliw, based on the seasonal trends and other guidance, my opinion is that we'll see precip a plenty in January. Thus, I'm not concerned with today's modelling for next weekend. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: WinterWxLuvr will curse me, but the CFS2 monthly precip forecasts are usually pretty good when it shows way above or way below. Below is its January forecast, that has steadily gotten wetter over the past 2+ weeks. Fwliw, based on the seasonal trends and other guidance, my opinion is that we'll see precip a plenty in January. Thus, I'm not concerned with today's modelling for next weekend. Without precip there's no sense in even talking, so bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Not sure what the difference is that the models are seeing. I know these aren't the favored models but the NAVGEM is a rainer it appears with the slp to WV then redevelops off VA Capes....the JMA is to W NC then redevelops near Hatteras and heads NNE/NE. CMC wasnt horrible with a light event to get many on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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