PaEasternWX Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 You can already tell by 141 hr that it is going to be suppressed. Confluence seems stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 LOL. At the rate the GFS is going. This is going to end up an Myrtle Beach snow storm. Crazy changes over the past 24 hours of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looks slightly better early in the run - at least someone gets snow this run IMO. I'm bad at this though, so consider this practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Yup. Really bad at this. 162h and I take it all back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It was really obvious it was going to bad way back by 141 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm ok with suppressed right now. You should be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Differences from the setup before are obvious. This is yesterday's 12z va today's. The se ridge is squashed. The vort ejecting from Colorado there is probably not strong enough to do much in that flat trough it's running into. Without narrower wavelengths we needed a bit of se ridge. It's still close enough and maybe it comes back but the models really shifted towards dumping that trough into the east vs west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This storm disappeared faster than Ronda Rousey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 That being said this is now an Atlanta/SC threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 That being said this is now an Atlanta/SC threat.Eh, I think it was last year where SC got 4 inches of snow before we got a trace and it ended up working out alright. That said, there is almost no way that solution is what will end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm ok with suppressed right now. You should be too. I agree that I would rather this be our problem then seeing a cutter from this range. But the h5 pattern is moving the wrong way. Usually I can see how the system has room to come up and the model just shows suppression. But the guidance is setting up a pretty hostile environment for anything to amplify where we need it right now. Gfs is close enough to keep me interested but last nights euro and EPS was really squashing things. If the euro moves back at least towards where the gfs is I'll give it more of a chance. It's not over but I think it's worse then the typical "the models are south at this range" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Can only see 2m Temps for the CMC, but it is much warmer than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I am not liking the implications of what the medium range changes are having later on either. I was kind of bothered by that and thinking a deeper trough into the east is going to cause a reaction when it moves out and it could be a bigger ridge goes up versus the nice look of a muted beaten down ridge in the long range yesterday. Seeing some signs of that for sure on this gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I agree psu. The issue of hostile for amplification is probably the biggest problem. For now, it's no longer a juicy storm threat anywhere. My guess is reality will end up being less in the suppression dept. But that doesn't = a good storm to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 CMC is now faster and warmer than 0z. Gives is maybe 12 hours of snow from 06z Friday to 18z friday. Much different than the GFS. Still a wide range of possible outcomes with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 CMC does look different. More like what the GFS showed early yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not liking the implications of what the medium range changes are having later on either. I was kind of bothered by that and thinking a deeper trough into the east is going to cause a reaction when it moves out and it could be a bigger ridge goes up versus the nice look of a muted beaten down ridge in the long range yesterday. Seeing some signs of that for sure on this gfs run. Agreed. But the way the models are changing in just a 24 hour period is crazy. Look at the 500 panels from yesterday's 12Z run compared to todays 12Z run. They are almost completely different from 0Z Wednesday on. I am sure they will change again numerous times over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 CMC has a 2-4" event ending as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. But the way the models are changing in just a 24 hour period is crazy. Look at the 500 panels from yesterday's 12Z run compared to todays 12Z run. They are almost completely different from 0Z Wednesday on. I am sure they will change again numerous times over the next 5 days. Yea I'm going to take a step back and let a few runs come in and see how the dust settles. Things are shifting around too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Next 10 D = Butkus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 My take is that there is no guidance beyond a few days that you can depend on. Even the ens took a wild turn in the past 24. The logical result of this is that there's no reason to give up on next weekend. Still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I doubt that we've seen any of the operational models correctly depict what the North American H5 pattern is going to look like for the 6th through the 9th. It's also apparent that nuances are going to be crucial as they always are, but even more so when we don't have a meaningful western Atlantic block. There's still plenty of time before we know what next weekend will look like. Even the Euro, as of 0Z, is still juggling around high-latitude anomaly centers by up to 5-degrees and 100 meters at forecast hour 168. Heck the only feature it's seemed fairly confident of is that positive anomaly over near Kamchatka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I'm going to take a step back and let a few runs come in and see how the dust settles. Things are shifting around too much right now. Is it possible the reason why things are in flux is because a larger pattern change may be taking place and the models are having a tough time resolving it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We don't know yet what the coming pattern will produce. Things are in transition now. The dominant pattern of the last two weeks is definitely over for a while. The look coming up is way better then the +epo AO nao crap we have been in. I'll take a -epo -AO pattern and roll with it. It's not the perfect setup but we can do ok in that. Weather this particular iteration works out we don't know. We will probably get another chance before it breaks down after th one we're talking about here. Then after that I see no signs we immediately revert to the December pattern. Things are really foggy at range this year. But I would definitely not lump the coming pattern with the recent one. Sometimes if it doesn't snow we just put it all together but we are definitely not in the same pattern as we have been. I am ok with the upcoming look, if its real of course. It is at least modestly better. My fear is we get a temporary reshuffle, which gives us some "thread the needle chances", but then we settle back into a dominant western trough pattern with another over modeled, underwhelming -AO/NAO. Its nice to see it modeled, but I dont trust the guidance with any suggestion of a sustained, meaningful negative NAO. We need something different though, and that might mean -EPO plus some rise in the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 23 minutes ago, Amped said: CMC has a 2-4" event ending as rain. I would take that just to get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Gefs leaves the door open for a lighter event at least. There are a couple big southern misses so at least a cluster is seeing an amplified solution but the trend away from a significant event here still pretty obvious. Big spread in timing continues so low confidence remains solidly in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Did the para gfs go live or is it just that far behind? 12z from yesterday I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not liking the implications of what the medium range changes are having later on either. I was kind of bothered by that and thinking a deeper trough into the east is going to cause a reaction when it moves out and it could be a bigger ridge goes up versus the nice look of a muted beaten down ridge in the long range yesterday. Seeing some signs of that for sure on this gfs run. The long range models are loosing the good look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The long range models are loosing the good look? Not really. Psu's concern is that we ridge out on the heels of the deep trough. But transient in nature. Just pointing out that the window may be shorter. Otoh- ensembles are starting to hint at a +pna making a comeback. 12z Gefs continues the trend. The good thing about Jan is it has the most wiggle room for borderline events. We don't need all 8 cylinders firing. It can be a forgiving month unless a shutout pattern sets up. No signs of that anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not really. Psu's concern is that we ridge out on the heels of the deep trough. But transient in nature. Just pointing out that the window may be shorter. Otoh- ensembles are starting to hint at a +pna making a comeback. 12z Gefs continues the trend. The good thing about Jan is it has the most wiggle room for borderline events. We don't need all 8 cylinders firing. It can be a forgiving month unless a shutout pattern sets up. No signs of that anywhere Not sure the Specifics for my region Bob , but I think we share the same pattern that yields good snow chances, region-wise, but I think we can score if we do get a + PNA I could even see the possibility of a NC to the benchmark kind of thing. There are some analogs , including some models that point to a + PNA in late Jan and Feb and maybe coninciding with a -NAO as well. Don S. posted today that for the NY City forum many of the 4 inch plus or greater snowfalls there happen in a + PNA pattern. Again not sure about us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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