January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Joe Bastardi says the cold will get here later and Feb will get snowier and colder.

I think I've seen that forecast somewhere before.......hmmmm...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[WinterWxLuvr]

The next time the question is posed about sampling, remember this one.  It matters.  Data matters.  You can't say it was because it was 8 days away.  On last nights 0z run of the hfs, the changes at h5 from 18z were huge as early as 96 hours.  You can go back and look at them.  They were probably there even earlier, I just wasn't looking. And this new data had a huge effect on the ensembles also.

Not what we wanted, but you have to admit this is pretty cool.

Also, I agree with PSU.  A deep eastern trough is always bad IMO.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The next time the question is posed about sampling, remember this one.  It matters.  Data matters.  You can't say it was because it was 8 days away.  On last nights 0z run of the hfs, the changes at h5 from 18z were huge as early as 96 hours.  You can go back and look at them.  They were probably there even earlier, I just wasn't looking. And this new data had a huge effect on the ensembles also.

Not what we wanted, but you have to admit this is pretty cool.

Also, I agree with CAPE.  A deep eastern trough is always bad IMO.

It all depends on how deep the trough is, correct? And I've heard on this forum that cold is overstated at times? Just asking. 

[kurtstack]

the overnight ensembles were not encouraging - but they keep us in the game for accumulating snow - one thing i can guarantee is that the models will have some more big changes in the coming days for better or worse


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[CAPE]

The biggest difference I see between 0z and previous run is the location/strength of that vortex underneath the AK ridge. That seems to be raising the heights out in front over the SW.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

It all depends on how deep the trough is, correct? And I've heard on this forum that cold is overstated at times? Just asking. 

Its all relative. If you want legit cold and chances for miller A events, a persistent eastern trough gives you that. All patterns have risks. A mean western trough absent of sustained blocking in the NA sucks overall, as we are clearly witnessing.

eta- sucks for the MA. NE can do ok in what is a "bad" pattern in our region

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

It all depends on how deep the trough is, correct? And I've heard on this forum that cold is overstated at times? Just asking. 

Well, one consistent aspect this year has been the over done forecasts of the cold.  About 8 days ago, either today or tomorrow I was modeled to have -20 850's knocking on my back door. Not now.

[PaEasternWX]

I knew this was going to happen when the NYC forum made a thread. Kiss of death right there.

 

eta: they deleted it lol

[mappy]

I knew this was going to happen when the NYC forum made a thread. Kiss of death right there.

 

eta: they deleted it lol

No one cares about what the NY subforum is doing


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[mattie g]

No one wanted to be in the bullseye yesterday since we all "knew" this would adjust north. I'm glad to see a whiff right now. Rather that than a cutter or late transfer that slops us and annihilates New England. If the southeast folks get some cold powder out of this, then I'll be the first to congratulate them.

But it's an eternity away and things are very unlikely to remain as they are on the models today (he said to everyone who knows that).

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

 

No one cares about what the NY subforum is doing


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I do if it means that they're miserable.

[dmillz25]

13 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

I knew this was going to happen when the NYC forum made a thread. Kiss of death right there.

 

eta: they deleted it lol

Lol I told them it was way too early for it

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The next time the question is posed about sampling, remember this one.  It matters.  Data matters.  You can't say it was because it was 8 days away.  On last nights 0z run of the hfs, the changes at h5 from 18z were huge as early as 96 hours.  You can go back and look at them.  They were probably there even earlier, I just wasn't looking. And this new data had a huge effect on the ensembles also.

Not what we wanted, but you have to admit this is pretty cool.

Also, I agree with PSU.  A deep eastern trough is always bad IMO.

One thing we should be mindful of is the large disparity we can have from N to S or W to E in our region for any given pattern or specific event. For your area, there can be too many misses with a deep trough, especially if the axis is a bit too far east. Here, I can do well because a somewhat offshore track is preferred. That can produce an all snow event here. On the other hand a more inland track or a low tracking to the west of the mountains with CAD works well for your area. Front end thumps. Those setups suck for those of us east of I-95 more times than not.

[FallsLake]

For us in the SE the overnight models were great. But how many times do you see NC getting a huge snow storm that doesn't end up running up the coast. There's been many times (on the models) where we are bulls-eyed and you guys get nothing just to have the models (within 3 days) either:

1) Expand the precip northward (we all enjoy a storm, SE probably gets our typical mix issues) 

2) Actually shift the precip northward (we go to rain)

3) Be right and we get the goods (but rare)

4) We all get nothing (still at least a 50% option) 

I would say if we end up getting snow so will you (at least up to DC). Just my thoughts...

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont disagree that the "suddenly" modeled dumping of the cold over the east messes up this specific set up. It may not be real. Models have a tendency to overdo cold air intrusions that crush waves and shove the baroclinc zone too far south. I was only responding to the bolded part of your original post, which was a broad generalization, and a bit whingy

You do great work here, and its much appreciated, as I have stated before.

I take the threats one at a time as they come. Just because we get the trough in the east now doesn't mean next setup when we need that it might not dump into the west again. Mother Nature can be cruel that way.  My comment was a moment of frustration I guess. Not at the storm as much as the string of people (not you) the last week who like to post one telleconection as the reason it won't snow. In this case one factor actually improved in a classical sense but it lowered our snow chances. If nothing else hopefully that is a lesson on how complex this is and that posting a pna chart doesn't tell us anything about if it's going to snow. (Again that's not directed at you)

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

No one wanted to be in the bullseye yesterday since we all "knew" this would adjust north. I'm glad to see a whiff right now. Rather that than a cutter or late transfer that slops us and annihilates New England. If the southeast folks get some cold powder out of this, then I'll be the first to congratulate them.

But it's an eternity away and things are very unlikely to remain as they are on the models today (he said to everyone who knows that).

My concern with this window of opportunity is not suppression, it has been pattern persistence (NW track) or weak, strung out waves that do nothing. It was a pretty big shift towards the latter with the recent model cycle. Plenty of time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One thing we should be mindful of is the large disparity we can have from N to S or W to E in our region for any given pattern or specific event. For your area, there can be too many misses with a deep trough, especially if the axis is a bit too far east. Here, I can do well because a somewhat offshore track is preferred. That can produce an all snow event here. On the other hand a more inland track or a low tracking to the west of the mountains with CAD works well for your area. Front end thumps. Those setups suck for those of us east of I-95 more times than not.

Very true.

I prefer a squeeze type of pattern where we have tame ridging to our south and low heights over Quebec.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I take the threats one at a time as they come. Just because we get the trough in the east now doesn't mean next setup when we need that it might not dump into the west again. Mother Nature can be cruel that way.  My comment was a moment of frustration I guess. Not at the storm as much as the string of people (not you) the last week who like to post one telleconection as the reason it won't snow. In this case one factor actually improved in a classical sense but it lowered our snow chances. If nothing else hopefully that is a lesson on how complex this is and that posting a pna chart doesn't tell us anything about if it's going to snow. (Again that's not directed at you)

Its almost always complicated for our region, regardless of the overall pattern. If the western trough is going to persist, the exact strength and position of the AK ridge is going to continue be a major driver and greatly influence our chances. We need some NAO help, even though a sustained block is unlikely. I cant lie, I liked seeing hints of a PNA ridge on the weeklies.

[Ender]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Joe Bastardi says the cold will get here later and Feb will get snowier and colder.

Did he really, or is that a joke? 

I've been accused of only showing up in crappy winters and then only to be the "storm ender". But...I tend to agree with the February into March positive outlook (assuming it's followed bad a disappointing back-half to Jan). Did he post something similar somewhere? I'd like to read his rational, but I don't think I've seen a forum that he posts in. 

Sorry to go a bit OT there.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, eurojosh said:

There's a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth, but as of now isn't it GFS and Euro vs GFS para and CMC? Could change when 6z para comes out, but the 0z runs of those two models still look decent, no?

It was a bad trend on all the guidance but your right the non euro stuff is still close enough to keep an eye on. It could come back but this feels different from the typical one run hiccup. The changes were pretty major at h5 and started early on. Plus the euro is still pretty good in the medium range and it sets up a really suppressive pattern in general. My gut says this one is in trouble. But I'm wrong a lot. 

We also need to see how this change impacts other moving parts. Perhaps if things continue shifting it sets up another threat after. When big shifts in the general idea happen I like to let a couple runs come in and see what shakes out. This change will affect things after it as well. 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Ender said:

Did he really, or is that a joke? 

I've been accused of only showing up in crappy winters and then only to be the "storm ender". But...I tend to agree with the February into March positive outlook (assuming it's followed bad a disappointing back-half to Jan). Did he post something similar somewhere? I'd like to read his rational, but I don't think I've seen a forum that he posts in. 

Sorry to go a bit OT there.

So " storm ender " =  Ender , your handle ?  :-) 

Maybe, your just the voice of reason.  If I recall, did you not work with Joe over at Accuweather years ago?

I thought I recall that .  Anyways, I enjoyed your analysis yesterday by the way. 

  

[ErinInTheSky]

Ooc does anyone honestly think this gfs run will change anything?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Ooc does anyone honestly think this gfs run will change anything?

The data might change which will yield a different solution.  Either the energy will get squashed or it won't.  It's the butterfly effect.  

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

The data might change which will yield a different solution.  Either the energy will get squashed or it won't.  It's the butterfly effect.  

I'll reserve a little hope.

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

It all depends on how deep the trough is, correct? And I've heard on this forum that cold is overstated at times? Just asking. 

Depth and axis matter. And a million other factors too. In general we want the trough axis a bit west of us if it's a deep trough. A deep trough centered over you is cold and dry.  The other factor here is how broad the trough is versus a pattern with shorter wavelengths. Ironically if we had that and therefore a huge ridge out west then maybe a deep trough would be ok and something could dig and turn the corner and come up. But with a broad flat trough and a PV lobe stuck in Quebec no ridging out west was better then a little. That slight sw ridging squashes the southeast ridge and allows the trough to dig into the east and that's not the right setup for this specific threat. They are all unique and there is no golden rule that works for them all. 

I was a meteorology major for 3 years but most of this is because I'm obsessed with it and love it so I've wasted a ton of time pouring through records of past storms and looking at the h5 setups and years of model analysis and eventually after all that you start to get a feel for how all the moving parts come together to give us snow.  Even after spending all that time I'm wrong as often as right probably.  But there is no "this is always what we need" rule to this. There are some general concepts like -nao good but even those are "usually" not always. 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a bad trend on all the guidance but your right the non euro stuff is still close enough to keep an eye on. It could come back but this feels different from the typical one run hiccup. The changes were pretty major at h5 and started early on. Plus the euro is still pretty good in the medium range and it sets up a really suppressive pattern in general. My gut says this one is in trouble. But I'm wrong a lot. 

We also need to see how this change impacts other moving parts. Perhaps if things continue shifting it sets up another threat after. When big shifts in the general idea happen I like to let a couple runs come in and see what shakes out. This change will affect things after it as well. 

If this window is closing, at least the models gave us a unicorn to chase for awhile to help us forget about how crappy this pattern has been and continues to be.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One thing we should be mindful of is the large disparity we can have from N to S or W to E in our region for any given pattern or specific event. For your area, there can be too many misses with a deep trough, especially if the axis is a bit too far east. Here, I can do well because a somewhat offshore track is preferred. That can produce an all snow event here. On the other hand a more inland track or a low tracking to the west of the mountains with CAD works well for your area. Front end thumps. Those setups suck for those of us east of I-95 more times than not.

Excellent point. Partially because we tent to be close to the baroclinoc zone in many events due to the proximity of the Atlantic the difference between my area or Winchester and you or the eastern shore is pretty drastic. I'm pretty sure a list of my best storms many of them sucked for you and conversely many of yours missed my area. Not a huge distance but very different snow climo. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Excellent point. Partially because we tent to be close to the baroclinoc zone in many events due to the proximity of the Atlantic the difference between my area or Winchester and you or the eastern shore is pretty drastic. Not a huge distance but very different snow climo. 

Yup. And dont forget I grew up in Carroll county and became a weather geek due to storms like the blizzards of 79 and 83. The localized climo there (due partly to Parrs ridge) makes it differ from places that are otherwise much closer in characteristic and proximity.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If this window is closing, at least the models gave us a unicorn to chase for awhile to help us forget about how crappy this pattern has been and continues to be.

We don't know yet what the coming pattern will produce. Things are in transition now. The dominant pattern of the last two weeks is definitely over for a while. The look coming up is way better then the +epo AO nao crap we have been in. I'll take a -epo -AO pattern and roll with it. It's not the perfect setup but we can do ok in that. Weather this particular iteration works out we don't know. We will probably get another chance before it breaks down after th one we're talking about here. Then after that I see no signs we immediately revert to the December pattern. Things are really foggy at range this year. But I would definitely not lump the coming pattern with the recent one. Sometimes if it doesn't snow we just put it all together but we are definitely not in the same pattern as we have been. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z GFS at 500mb thru 120hrs looks more like 0z than 6z fwiw.