winterymix Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 At the very end of the GFS run, we see a bit of a West Coast ridge and a bit of a -NAO. Hopefully this is the step down pattern. Wouldn't surprise me if things don't get going until around January 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 anyone have thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, debeaches said: anyone have thoughts on this? Kinda backs up a post I made earlier. It seems the troposphere is doing the dirty work first instead of the other way around. Getting sustained blocking does not require a SSWE to happen first. I'm liking everything I've seen this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I nominate this panel for the weeniest LR GEFS run of the year...or maybe ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I nominate this panel for the weeniest LR GEFS run of the year...or maybe ever. If only that wasn't also ice and sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kinda backs up a post I made earlier. It seems the troposphere is doing the dirty work first instead of the other way around. Getting sustained blocking does not require a SSWE to happen first. I'm liking everything I've seen this week. That was a good point and it may have been prophetic. Sometimes we get stuck looking for the way we expect things to go and miss what's happening right in front of us. It's not always complicated. Others were making a good argument that the h5 had to be wrong because the current PV at upper levels doesn't support it but when guidance keeps showing the same thing why not the possibility that the h5 is right and the other levels are about to change. Still not sure of anything but there are some good signs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: If only that wasn't also ice and sleet... Yea the gefs snow mean on wxbell is skewed high but it was still a big jump up from the last few runs that were also skewed by ice so it's a good run. Glass half full. ETA the 3 members that miss us with appreciable snow do so by suppressing things to our south not cutting west. Blocking keeps getting better run to run. The ridge everyone was worried about long range is beat down more each run. It's a good run. There really isn't any "but" to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4" mean on the 18z GEFS with 4 members being complete whiffs. Some big hits in there with 9 showing 6"+. Like Bob said, nothing settled today. A fun week of tracking ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I nominate this panel for the weeniest LR GEFS run of the year...or maybe ever. I know "13" is considered unlucky but I am Homer Simpson drooling/salivating over e13 attm as well as several of the others. Geez...and most of that is day 6+ correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know "13" is considered unlucky but I am Homer Simpson drooling/salivating over e13 attm as well as several of the others. Geez...and most of that is day 6+ correct? If e13 hit- eviction notices would go out to all in the panic room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the gefs snow mean on wxbell is skewed high but it was still a big jump up from the last few runs that were also skewed by ice so it's a good run. Glass half full. I'm not sure it's skewed that high anymore. It seems like the resolution issues work both ways. I've seen good tracks and a rain snow line that seemed too far north when considering the hp placement and slp track. But it's pretty dumb to split hairs over this stuff. The main point is the d8-16 window in its entirety looked good. Many of those member panels included 2 or even 3 events. Not saying I think we're about to get blasted or anything. Just pointing out that the trend for an extended window seems to be going in the right direction. Eps mean high temps never crack 40 @ kgai and d15 is colder than d13-14. Eps also has additional snow chances in the mix d12-15. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: And again what was progged as a super ridge 48 hours ago now looks like this day 13 and morphs into this day 16. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 and 18 panels look about right. Maybe cut down the totals a little bit further south but otherwise it looks very realistic and likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: 8 and 18 panels look about right. Maybe cut down the totals a little bit further south but otherwise it looks very realistic and likely. Wait those panels have no snow at all. So you're saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 16 minutes ago, Stormpc said: 8 and 18 panels look about right. Maybe cut down the totals a little bit further south but otherwise it looks very realistic and likely. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Omg I almost spit my beer out laughing at Mattie's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Mattie's post should be moved to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Kinda backs up a post I made earlier. It seems the troposphere is doing the dirty work first instead of the other way around. Getting sustained blocking does not require a SSWE to happen first. I'm liking everything I've seen this week. Hmmm, reading that Twitter thread seems to indicate that the Atlantic side is more favorable than the Pacific to have effects on the Strat via the Troposphere via a Atlantic wave flux which according to Jason Furtado and I qoute him, " matches well for wave-2 forcing precursor. Pacific sector less so " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Anyone else wish they lived in a world where day-7 was reality. ... and I don't think it is just selective memory. Hoping for the best. We're do for an early January dumping but mid-January is ok too. Median NAEFS precip at DCA on the 7th is now ~5mm. Looks cold from the 5th through 10th and then the ensembles are all over the place. Highs on the 14th range from 18 to 68. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Despite being hopeful the models will hold serve, I'll refrain from putting the snow plows on my Kubota until we're inside of 36 hours and you all are going bonkers. If I succumb to the temptation now and install the plows, it will be a sure bet we don't get diddly. Just hoping one of the waves on the forecast radar pans out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Does any one know if todays euro prcip map is posted in the previous pages.. and if so what page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 18 minutes ago, PDIII said: Does any one know if todays euro prcip map is posted in the previous pages.. and if so what page? It was a crap ton of qpf but not all snow in the cities. The all snow line was about leesburgh to my area. In the cities it was about 6-10" then sleet more nw less SE but it's 8 days away so it's going to change a dozen times by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 For those that did not see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: For those that did not see. That's funny...That's exactly what the Farmer's almanac has for that date range (literally says "Snow/rain for Maryland, Delaware") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 My early guess is changes coming this run. Changes on west coast are pretty obvious at 4.5 days, lower east coast heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 My early guess is changes coming this run. Changes on west coast are pretty obvious at 4.5 days, lower east coast heights.Bigger changes at 4.5 days are out West with the energy on the coast imo. More consolidated...slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Bigger changes at 4.5 days are out West with the energy on the coast imo. More consolidated...slower. Big height difference in the east too. The look is really different all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bigger changes at 4.5 days are out West with the energy on the coast imo. More consolidated...slower. Huge changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Big height difference in the east too. The look is really different all around. Much different all around- lots of northern stream energy driving down into Idaho area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Do these changes spell good news or bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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