Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z looks similar to 12z. We get rainI still don't know how the GFS lost the high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I hope we're in the bullseye bc nothing says snowstorm like being in the bullseye 7 days out. Lol. I'm not mentally there yet to get invested. Way too early. Sunday...sure...maybe. Still intriguing reading the comments/analysis, but absolutely under no circumstances am I going to allow myself to get hyped this early. Not doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well hold on there, GFS likes the second wave. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Rain then dry as the transfer occurs. Gfs seems to be running very contrary to the Euro. Is this like the tropics where if the Euro and GFS disagree, the GFS usually caves last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Woah never mind that second wave looks to be promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I still don't know how the GFS lost the high pressure. 18z today is about 24 hours faster than 18z yesterday. Looks like the HP doesn't have enough time to develop after the jan 3rd system. We need the 2nd wave like the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Well hold on there, GFS likes the second wave. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Meh... weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 180 and 186 both give good snow from the second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Gfs is rain with the first wave but now gives more oomph to the second, more in line with the euro but colder and not as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, supernovasky said: 180 and 186 both give good snow from the second wave Second wave is fools gold most of the time. When you look at an op run and the time stamp is less than 96 hours you can draw conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Meh... weak sauceThe sauce is weak you say, for snow we all pray. Yoda voice *Btw 2 inches from second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2nd wave looks better than it did at 12z. Hopefully the GFS starts to key in on the second wave more in the next runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Gfs is rain with the first wave but now gives more oomph to the second, more in line with the euro but colder and not as wet. I mean I guess that's good news... but it needs to leave IMO a bit more energy behind with the 2nd wave like the EURO showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I still don't know how the GFS lost the high pressure. It didn't. The high is way back to the west because the gfs is now keying on a front runner wave that before was a weak wave giving some snow to the Carolinas as the cold pushed in. Now it more amplifies which stalls the front some and the wave is coming in ahead of the high. The wave skirting us with light snow a day later is the storm on the euro and yesterday's Gfs. This is a delicate balancing act. Too much in the front wave and it's rain and squashes the second. Too much in the second and the first misses south and the second cuts. Our best scenario is maybe an even split. Less on the front then the gfs but a bit less on the back then the euro. Lots of ways to score or fail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Gfs is rain with the first wave but now gives more oomph to the second, more in line with the euro but colder and not as wet. To me the gfs has a full blown storm with the first, the euro not as much (here anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Obviously not settled yet. It wouldn't have taken much shift to get something from first wave. But the departing high gives less optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It didn't. The high is way back to the west because the gfs is now keying on a front runner wave that before was a weak wave giving some snow to the Carolinas as the cold pushed in. Now it more amplifies which stalls the front some and the wave is coming in ahead of the high. The wave skirting us with light snow a day later is the storm on the euro and yesterday's Gfs. This is a delicate balancing act. Too much in the front wave and it's rain and squashes the second. Too much in the second and the first misses south and the second cuts. Our best scenario is maybe an even split. Less on the front then the gfs but a bit less on the back then the euro. Lots of ways to score or fail here. Better said than my attempt. With the gfs putting so much in the first storm I would have serious doubts about the second. Id be perfectly fine with taking my chances with a Tn/Oh valley cutter throwing copious precip into established cold air if that first one ends up weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: To me the hfs has a full blown storm with the first, the euro not as much (here anyway) They are getting closer. The Euro is way better for you, I'm not convinced it is for me but think it trended towards the European. I'd like to see a compromise between the two, for you the euro is a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Better said than my attempt. With the gfs putting so much in the first storm I would have serious doubts about the second. Id be perfectly fine with taking my chances with a Tn/Oh valley cutter throwing copious precious into established cold air if that first one ends up weaker.i hope we score a lot of preciousSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, kurtstack said: i hope we score a lot of precious Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better said than my attempt. With the gfs putting so much in the first storm I would have serious doubts about the second. Id be perfectly fine with taking my chances with a Tn/Oh valley cutter throwing copious precious into established cold air if that first one ends up weaker. In reality they could both have more oomph then the model sees from this range. That could work of the first wave sets the boundary for the second. This isn't the same as a caboose wave on a boundary. These are separate entities ejecting from the west. The spacing and split of energy will have a lot to say with our fate. It's way too delicate in that regard to pretend we know how it's going to play out. I know it's tempting to just say "it will screw us" and it might but it just as easily could nail us with one of the waves or at the least a respectable front end thump. The ensembles show the spread well. Eta the second wave has more potential to deepen as it has more space behind the bombing lakes cutter and more h5 support. The lead wave has more of a cap. We don't necessarily want something too strong just pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In reality they could both have more oomph then the model sees from this range. That could work of the first wave sets the boundary for the second. This isn't the same as a caboose wave on a boundary. These are separate entities ejecting from the west. The spacing and split of energy will have a lot to say with our fate. It's way too delicate in that regard to pretend we know how it's going to play out. I know it's tempting to just say "it will screw us" and it might but it just as easily could nail us with one of the waves or at the least a respectable front end thump. The ensembles show the spread well. Eta the second wave has more potential to deepen as it has more space behind the bombing lakes cutter and more h5 support. The lead wave has more of a cap. We don't necessarily want something too strong just pointing that out. Any chance we end up with just one consolidated piece or is it likely these pieces are already "seen" and it's more just how the spacing and timing play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 At least the 18z was more similar than the euro than a total opposite. So there's that. But I don't think today provided any additional guidance since yesterday. If anything it got more complicated. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any chance we end up with just one consolidated piece or is it likely these pieces are already "seen" and it's more just how the spacing and timing play out? They are pretty far apart. They are separate waves. Could one wash out and the other take over us but I don't think we want that. That could easily lead to something bombing up to our west. We need some suppression here as the pna would argue for an extremely deep system to cut. We would need to thread the needle and get lucky for that to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least the 18z was more similar than the euro than a total opposite. So there's that. But I don't think today provided any additional guidance since yesterday. If anything it got more complicated. Lol Agreed. Potential still there but there are a lot of moving parts. kind of like we opened that new present today expecting to pop it together is 3 easy steps and 500 little pieces and a 200 page instruction guide fell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed. Potential still there but there are a lot of moving parts. kind of like we opened that new present today expecting to pop it together is 3 easy steps and 500 little pieces and a 200 page instruction guide fell out. Lol- truth. 18z gefs moved decidedly better. Looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Bob just said it gon snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- truth. 18z gefs moved decidedly better. Looks really good. I love when you like the GEFS. Makes my night much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- truth. 18z gefs moved decidedly better. Looks really good. Another run where that long range torch looks just awful. I'll say a prayer we make it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Gefs keeping the threat window open through d12 and beyond. That plus the euro backing off on the east ridge is pretty encouraging. We may be entering an extended window beyond a one and done threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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